Houston Texans Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.03 to 8.8%

0-0-2 .000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+2.9-1.6-3.1		+0.6-0.2-0.6
New England vs Jacksonville	+0.6-1.3-1.2		+0.0-0.1-0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	-0.5*-0.0+1.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh			+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati			-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego			+0.0*+0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Atlanta vs Houston	-1.7+1.1+5.3		-0.3+0.3+1.0
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+0.8*-0.1-0.8
Cincinnati vs Kansas City			+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants			-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Miami vs NY Jets			-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Denver vs Minnesota			-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Houston finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14		14	-	0	-	0	In		96	4															124
13	.5	13	-	1	-	0	In		100																1
13		13	-	0	-	1	In		91	9															76
12	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		73	27															11
12		12	-	0	-	2	In		59	34	7	0	0												705
11	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		35	45	16	1	2												85
11		11	-	0	-	3	100.0	%	20	43	28	5	3	0	0										4,634
		10	-	2	-	2	In		22	44	33														9
10	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		5	26	44	16	7	1											483
10		10	-	0	-	4	98.5		2	15	39	29	9	5	1	0	0								20,851
		9	-	2	-	3	In			8	33	42	8	8											24
9	.5	9	-	1	-	4	91.0			3	24	44	9	11	7	2	0								2,071
9		9	-	0	-	5	75.6		0	1	12	45	5	12	13	8	3	0	0	0					64,884
		8	-	2	-	4	86.2			1	11	49	9	17	7	4	2								94
8	.5	8	-	1	-	5	44.5			0	2	35	1	6	16	21	13	5	1	0					5,888
		7	-	3	-	4	75.0					75						25							4
8		8	-	0	-	6	28.5			0	1	26	0	2	8	17	21	16	7	2	0	0	0		149,185
		7	-	2	-	5	26.6					24	1	3	6	18	23	14	8	4	1				199
7	.5	7	-	1	-	6	10.8				0	11	0	0	1	5	16	27	25	12	3	0			11,590
		6	-	3	-	5	33.3					33				33			33						3
7		7	-	0	-	7	5.8				0	6		0	0	1	6	17	26	25	14	4	1	0	255,470
		6	-	2	-	6	3.8					4				1	4	15	30	27	15	2		0	419
6	.5	6	-	1	-	7	1.4					1				0	0	3	13	28	32	18	4	0	17,079
		5	-	3	-	6	Out												44	11	44				9
6		6	-	0	-	8	0.4					0				0	0	1	5	16	30	30	15	3	328,514
		5	-	2	-	7	Out											1	6	12	30	33	14	4	516
5	.5	5	-	1	-	8	0.0					0						0	0	3	16	36	34	11	18,818
		4	-	3	-	7	Out														14	43	29	14	7
5		5	-	0	-	9	0.0					0						0	0	1	7	26	41	25	313,353
		4	-	2	-	8	Out													1	8	26	42	23	446
4	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out													0	1	11	41	46	14,795
		3	-	3	-	8	Out																57	43	7
4		4	-	0	-	10	Out													0	0	5	32	63	219,906
		3	-	2	-	9	Out														1	5	30	64	267
3	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out														0	1	19	80	8,170
		2	-	3	-	9	Out																	100	4
3		3	-	0	-	11	Out														0	0	11	88	110,094
		2	-	2	-	10	Out															1	13	86	109
2	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out																4	96	2,981
		1	-	3	-	10	Out																	100	2
2		2	-	0	-	12	Out															0	2	98	36,837
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																	100	28
1	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																1	99	665
		0	-	3	-	11	Out																	100	1
1		1	-	0	-	13	Out																0	100	7,470
		0	-	2	-	12	Out																	100	2
0	-0.5						Out																	100	918	*

Total:							8.8	%	0	0	1	6	0	1	1	2	3	5	6	8	10	13	17	24	1,597,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Houston vs Tampa Bay	-1.6+0.4+1.7
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.1-0.0+0.2
Dallas vs Atlanta	+0.0+0.1-0.1
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.0+0.1+0.1
Detroit vs Denver	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Arizona vs San Francisco	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Atlanta vs Houston	+0.8-0.7-2.6
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.0+0.1-0.0
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.0*+0.3+0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis	*-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14		14	-	0	-	0	94	2	4
13	.5	13	-	1	-	0	100
13		13	-	0	-	1	51	39	9
12	.5	12	-	1	-	1	45	27	18	9
12		12	-	0	-	2	14	45	24	10	7		0		0
11	.5	11	-	1	-	2	5	31	29	15	16		1		2
11		11	-	0	-	3	1	20	10	33	19	9	5	0	2	1	0		0
		10	-	2	-	2		22	33	11	33
10	.5	10	-	1	-	3		5	6	20	28	16	15	1	5	3	1
10		10	-	0	-	4		2	0	14	8	31	19	10	3	6	4	1	1	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3				8	4	29	33	8	4	4	8
9	.5	9	-	1	-	4				3	3	21	26	19	2	6	8	3	7	2	0
9		9	-	0	-	5		0		1	0	12	12	33	0	4	4	9	12	8	4	1	0	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4				1	2	9	12	37		9	7	10	7	2	4
8	.5	8	-	1	-	5				0	0	2	7	29		1	1	6	7	17	16	10	4	1	0	0
		7	-	3	-	4							25	50								25
8		8	-	0	-	6				0		1	1	24		0	0	2	2	7	13	16	14	9	5	2	1	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5							2	22		1		3	3	4	11	16	16	10	8	5	2	1
7	.5	7	-	1	-	6						0	0	10		0		0	0	0	1	4	11	19	22	17	10	4	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5								33								33			33
7		7	-	0	-	7						0	0	6				0	0	0	0	1	3	7	13	17	18	15	11	6	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6								4							0		3	6	15	17	18	17	11	6	2	1	0
6	.5	6	-	1	-	7								1									0	0	0	2	7	16	24	24	16	7	2	0	0	0
		5	-	3	-	6																				22		11	56	11
6		6	-	0	-	8								0										0	0	0	2	5	11	17	21	20	14	7	3	1	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7																				0	2	6	8	16	22	22	14	8	2	0
5	.5	5	-	1	-	8								0														0	0	2	8	17	26	25	15	5	1	0
		4	-	3	-	7																									14	29	29	29
5		5	-	0	-	9								0													0	0	0	0	2	7	15	24	25	18	7	1
		4	-	2	-	8																								0	3	9	15	22	24	19	7	2
4	.5	4	-	1	-	9																									0	0	2	9	23	33	25	7
		3	-	3	-	8																												29	14	57
4		4	-	0	-	10																								0	0	0	1	4	13	28	36	19
		3	-	2	-	9																											0	4	9	29	37	21
3	.5	3	-	1	-	10																												0	2	13	39	45
		2	-	3	-	9																															25	75
3		3	-	0	-	11																												0	1	7	32	60
		2	-	2	-	10																														5	34	61
2	.5	2	-	1	-	11																														1	16	83
		1	-	3	-	10																																100
2		2	-	0	-	12																													0	0	10	89
		1	-	2	-	11																															14	86
1	.5	1	-	1	-	12																															3	97
		0	-	3	-	11																																100
1		1	-	0	-	13																															2	98
		0	-	2	-	12																																100
0	.5	0	-	1	-	13																															2	98
0		0	-	0	-	14																																100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	10