SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

New York Giants Playoff Chances 2015

Beat Washington 32-21, playoff odds up 7.9 to 13.1%

1-0-2 .333

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	+2.9		+0.8
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dallas vs Atlanta	-0.7*+0.5+1.2		-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.4*-0.2-0.4		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.3*+0.3+0.5		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.3*-0.1+0.4		-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.1*-0.6+0.5		+0.0*-0.1-0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	+0.1*+0.7-0.3		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Detroit vs Denver	-0.2*+0.7+0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City			-0.0+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-3.2*+0.3+6.4		-0.5+0.2+0.9
New Orleans vs Dallas	+1.2*-0.0-0.9
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.2*+0.4-0.5		+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.1*+0.8+0.5
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.2*+0.4+0.3
Washington vs Philadelphia	-0.1*-0.0+0.3
Arizona vs St. Louis	+0.1*-0.1-0.3		+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Chicago vs Oakland			-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina			-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NY Giants finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14		13	-	0	-	0	In		89	10			1												157
13	.5	12	-	1	-	0	In		100																6
13		12	-	0	-	1	In		72	22	3	0	4												419
12	.5	11	-	1	-	1	In		53	40	4		4												55
12		11	-	0	-	2	In		37	38	12	1	12	0											3,498
11	.5	10	-	1	-	2	In		18	41	18	3	20												331
11		10	-	0	-	3	99.9	%	8	28	27	7	26	4	0										17,309
		9	-	2	-	2	In		11	11	47	5	26												19
10	.5	9	-	1	-	3	99.4		2	17	31	10	32	7	1										1,550
10		9	-	0	-	4	94.3		1	6	21	18	28	21	5	0	0								58,682
		8	-	2	-	3	94.3		2	8	21	23	26	15	6										53
9	.5	8	-	1	-	4	84.4		0	1	13	20	20	30	13	2	0								4,967
		7	-	3	-	3	Out								100										1
9		8	-	0	-	5	59.1		0	0	5	17	10	27	25	12	3	0	0						142,038
		7	-	2	-	4	60.9				3	20	11	28	27	8	4								179
8	.5	7	-	1	-	5	31.0			0	1	13	2	15	31	26	10	2	0	0					10,350
		6	-	3	-	4	Out								50		50								2
8		7	-	0	-	6	13.5			0	0	7	1	6	17	28	25	12	4	1	0	0			252,445
		6	-	2	-	5	12.8				0	6	1	6	15	28	28	11	5	0					327
7	.5	6	-	1	-	6	3.4				0	3		0	5	18	31	27	12	3	0	0			16,195
		5	-	3	-	5	Out									40	60								5
7		6	-	0	-	7	1.3				0	1	0	0	1	6	18	28	26	14	4	1	0	0	330,313
		5	-	2	-	6	1.4					1			1	5	18	29	26	15	5	0			433
6	.5	5	-	1	-	7	0.3					0			0	1	4	16	30	30	15	4	0	0	17,900
		4	-	3	-	6	Out												30	40	20	10			10
6		5	-	0	-	8	0.1					0			0	0	1	6	17	29	28	15	4	0	321,196
		4	-	2	-	7	Out										1	5	16	30	30	15	3	0	394
5	.5	4	-	1	-	8	0.0					0					0	1	4	17	33	30	14	2	14,475
		3	-	3	-	7	Out													33	50	17			6
5		4	-	0	-	9	0.0					0					0	0	1	7	22	34	27	8	229,305
		3	-	2	-	8	Out												2	8	21	31	27	10	277
4	.5	3	-	1	-	9	Out												0	1	7	28	42	22	8,024
4		3	-	0	-	10	Out												0	0	3	17	41	39	115,281
		2	-	2	-	9	Out														2	17	39	43	119
3	.5	2	-	1	-	10	Out														0	5	33	62	3,045
		1	-	3	-	9	Out																	100	1
3		2	-	0	-	11	Out													0	0	2	22	76	38,873
		1	-	2	-	10	Out															4	22	74	23
2	.5	1	-	1	-	11	Out															0	10	90	662
2		1	-	0	-	12	Out															0	6	94	7,969
		0	-	2	-	11	Out																	100	3
1	.5	0	-	1	-	12	Out																2	98	63
1		0	-	0	-	13	Out																1	99	848

Total:							13.1	%	0	1	2	4	2	4	6	7	9	9	10	10	10	10	9	7	1,597,808

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	-1.5
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.1+0.2+0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	+0.0-0.2-0.0
Dallas vs Atlanta	+0.0-0.1-0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.0-0.1+0.1
Detroit vs Denver	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.1*+0.1-0.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs San Francisco	+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.0*+0.2+0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.0*+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+1.3-0.3-2.5
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.0*+0.0+0.2
Washington vs Philadelphia	+0.0+0.1-0.0
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-0.0*+0.2+0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14		13	-	0	-	0	87	2	10						1
13	.5	12	-	1	-	0	100
13		12	-	0	-	1	52	20	20	2	3		0		4
12	.5	11	-	1	-	1	33	20	38	2	4				4
12		11	-	0	-	2	12	25	31	7	12	0	1		12	0	0
11	.5	10	-	1	-	2	4	14	28	12	18		3		20	0
11		10	-	0	-	3	1	8	9	19	21	6	7	0	21	5	4	0	0
		9	-	2	-	2		11	5	5	42	5	5		26
10	.5	9	-	1	-	3		2	4	13	22	9	10	0	23	8	7		1
10		9	-	0	-	4	0	1	0	6	6	14	14	4	9	19	16	5	5	0	0	0
		8	-	2	-	3		2	2	6	8	13	21	2	11	15	15		6
9	.5	8	-	1	-	4		0		1	2	11	15	6	3	16	19	11	12	3	0	0	0
		7	-	3	-	3													100
9		8	-	0	-	5		0	0	0	0	5	7	10	0	9	6	21	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	4						3	9	10		11	4	23	16	14	8	1
8	.5	7	-	1	-	5				0	0	1	4	9		2	1	14	9	19	20	14	5	1	0
		6	-	3	-	4															100
8		7	-	0	-	6				0	0	0	1	6		1	0	6	2	8	16	19	18	12	7	3	1	0	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	5						0	1	5		1		6	3	8	22	15	17	13	4	3	2	0
7	.5	6	-	1	-	6						0	0	3				0		0	1	4	12	21	25	19	10	4	1	0	0
		5	-	3	-	5															20			20	20	20	20
7		6	-	0	-	7						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	1	3	7	14	19	20	16	11	5	2	1	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	6								1									2	6	17	19	22	17	7	5	2	1
6	.5	5	-	1	-	7								0									0	0	1	2	8	17	23	24	16	7	2	0	0	0
		4	-	3	-	6																							20	20	40	20
6		5	-	0	-	8								0										0	0	0	2	5	11	18	22	19	13	6	2	1	0	0
		4	-	2	-	7																					1	4	11	19	25	20	11	7	1	1
5	.5	4	-	1	-	8								0														0	0	2	9	18	26	24	14	5	1	0
		3	-	3	-	7																									17	17	33	33
5		4	-	0	-	9								0														0	0	1	2	8	16	24	25	17	7	1
		3	-	2	-	8																								1	3	7	13	25	27	16	8	1
4	.5	3	-	1	-	9																									0	0	3	11	24	33	23	7
4		3	-	0	-	10																								0	0	0	1	4	13	29	35	19
		2	-	2	-	9																												2	17	27	33	22
3	.5	2	-	1	-	10																												0	2	14	41	42
		1	-	3	-	9																																100
3		2	-	0	-	11																											0	0	1	7	32	60
		1	-	2	-	10																														17	35	48
2	.5	1	-	1	-	11																														1	17	82
2		1	-	0	-	12																														0	11	89
		0	-	2	-	11																																100
1	.5	0	-	1	-	12																															3	97
1		0	-	0	-	13																															1	99

Total:							0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	1	2	1	3	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4