SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

What might
today bring

Detroit Lions Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 7.7%

0-0-2 .000

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21			-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Detroit vs Denver	+3.5*-0.2-2.6		+0.7*+0.0-0.5
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.4*+0.3+0.9		-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.4*+0.1+0.7		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.2*+0.2-0.2
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.2*-0.2+0.3		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.1*-0.2+0.3		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Dallas vs Atlanta	+0.1*-0.1-0.2
NY Jets vs Philadelphia			+0.0*-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle vs Detroit	-2.8*+0.2+4.5		-0.7+0.2+1.1
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.4*-0.2-0.8		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.4*-0.3-0.4
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.1*+0.2+0.4
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.1*-0.3-0.2		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Oakland	-0.1*-0.6+0.1		-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Washington vs Philadelphia			-0.0*+0.1+0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas			-0.1*-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Detroit finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14		14	-	0	-	0	In		96	4															126
13		13	-	0	-	1	In		80	18	1		1												179
12	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		75	20	5														20
12		12	-	0	-	2	In		49	38	7	0	5	0											1,461
		11	-	2	-	1	In		25		50		25												4
11	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		24	41	24	3	9	1											148
11		11	-	0	-	3	99.8	%	14	34	25	5	19	3	0										8,263
		10	-	2	-	2	In			29	29	14	29												7
10	.5	10	-	1	-	3	99.7		3	21	31	12	24	9	0										885
10		10	-	0	-	4	95.0		1	9	23	17	26	19	5	1	0								32,016
		9	-	2	-	3	94.7		3	13	18	21	29	11	5										38
9	.5	9	-	1	-	4	84.0		0	2	13	22	18	29	14	2	0								3,047
9		9	-	0	-	5	58.7		0	0	6	16	10	27	27	12	3	0	0						89,482
		8	-	2	-	4	56.3			1	4	23	5	23	32	9	3								103
8	.5	8	-	1	-	5	30.6			0	1	12	2	16	31	26	10	2	0						7,576
		7	-	3	-	4	Out									100									1
8		8	-	0	-	6	11.3			0	0	5	1	5	19	29	25	12	3	0	0	0			183,829
		7	-	2	-	5	12.0				0	5	0	7	17	27	28	12	3	1					274
7	.5	7	-	1	-	6	2.6				0	2		1	5	18	31	28	13	3	0	0			13,513
		6	-	3	-	5	Out									50	50								4
7		7	-	0	-	7	0.7				0	1	0	0	1	6	17	28	27	15	4	1	0	0	283,436
		6	-	2	-	6	0.2					0			1	4	18	32	26	16	3	0			444
6	.5	6	-	1	-	7	0.1					0			0	1	4	15	30	31	16	4	0	0	17,877
		5	-	3	-	6	Out									7		14	36	21	21				14
6		6	-	0	-	8	0.0					0			0	0	1	5	16	28	29	16	4	0	328,416
		5	-	2	-	7	Out									0	0	6	15	29	31	15	4	0	515
5	.5	5	-	1	-	8	Out										0	0	4	14	31	32	15	3	17,754
		4	-	3	-	7	Out												13	13	25	25	25		8
5		5	-	0	-	9	Out										0	0	1	6	19	34	30	10	286,044
		4	-	2	-	8	Out												1	6	22	31	31	9	436
4	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out												0	1	6	25	43	26	12,743
		3	-	3	-	8	Out															33		67	3
4		4	-	0	-	10	Out												0	0	2	13	39	45	183,347
		3	-	2	-	9	Out														1	13	41	45	223
3	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out														0	3	29	68	6,468
		2	-	3	-	9	Out																20	80	5
3		3	-	0	-	11	Out														0	1	17	81	84,284
		2	-	2	-	10	Out															2	18	80	93
2	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out															0	7	93	2,249
2		2	-	0	-	12	Out															0	4	96	26,435
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																	100	14
1	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																1	99	490
1		1	-	0	-	13	Out																0	100	4,965
		0	-	2	-	12	Out																	100	2
0	-0.5						Out																	100	567	*

Total:							7.7	%	0	0	1	2	1	3	4	5	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	14	1,597,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Detroit vs Denver	-1.8-0.8+1.3
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland	+0.0-0.1-0.1
Seattle vs Chicago	+0.0*-0.3-0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Arizona vs San Francisco	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seattle vs Detroit	+1.3-1.0-2.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	+0.0-0.1-0.0
Washington vs Philadelphia	+0.0*-0.3-0.1
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14		14	-	0	-	0	94	2	4
13		13	-	0	-	1	50	31	17	2	1				1
12	.5	12	-	1	-	1	60	15	20		5
12		12	-	0	-	2	15	34	29	10	7	0	0		5	0	0
		11	-	2	-	1	25				50				25
11	.5	11	-	1	-	2	6	18	31	9	22	1	3		8	1	1
11		11	-	0	-	3	1	13	11	24	18	6	5	0	14	5	3	0	0	0
		10	-	2	-	2			14	14	14	14	14		14	14
10	.5	10	-	1	-	3	0	2	4	17	21	10	12	0	16	8	8	0	0
10		10	-	0	-	4	0	1	0	9	6	17	13	4	7	19	13	6	4	1	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3		3		13	8	11	13	8	8	21	5	5	3	3
9	.5	9	-	1	-	4		0		2	2	11	16	6	3	15	17	12	12	3	1	0
9		9	-	0	-	5		0		0	0	5	6	10	0	9	4	23	9	14	11	6	2	0	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4				1		4	8	16		5	5	18	8	16	14	5	2
8	.5	8	-	1	-	5				0	0	1	3	8		2	1	15	8	18	21	15	6	2	0	0
		7	-	3	-	4															100
8		8	-	0	-	6				0	0	0	1	5		1	0	5	0	2	5	11	17	20	17	10	5	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5						0	1	4		0		7		1	2	11	17	21	18	13	3	2
7	.5	7	-	1	-	6						0	0	2				1		0	1	4	11	19	24	21	12	5	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5																	25	75
7		7	-	0	-	7						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	0	0	1	4	8	15	21	21	16	8	3	1	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6								0										2	4	9	16	18	20	17	8	4	0
6	.5	6	-	1	-	7								0									0	0	0	2	6	15	23	25	18	8	3	0	0	0
		5	-	3	-	6																				14		21	14	14	14	21
6		6	-	0	-	8								0										0	0	0	0	1	3	7	15	23	24	17	8	2	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7																					0	0	3	10	17	23	22	16	7	2	0
5	.5	5	-	1	-	8																					0	0	0	2	7	16	26	26	15	6	1	0
		4	-	3	-	7																								13	13		25	13	38
5		5	-	0	-	9																							0	0	0	2	6	16	28	29	16	4
		4	-	2	-	8																										2	8	18	25	29	15	3
4	.5	4	-	1	-	9																									0	0	2	8	22	34	26	8
		3	-	3	-	8																														33	67
4		4	-	0	-	10																										0	0	1	5	19	41	34
		3	-	2	-	9																													6	22	43	30
3	.5	3	-	1	-	10																												0	1	11	39	48
		2	-	3	-	9																														20	60	20
3		3	-	0	-	11																												0	0	2	21	76
		2	-	2	-	10																														4	29	67
2	.5	2	-	1	-	11																														1	14	85
2		2	-	0	-	12																														0	5	95
		1	-	2	-	11																																100
1	.5	1	-	1	-	12																															2	98
1		1	-	0	-	13																														0	1	99
		0	-	2	-	12																																100
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	11