Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.4 to 19.2%

1-0-1 .500

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Miami vs Buffalo	-6.4+2.1+10.5		-0.8+0.2+1.3
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.4*-0.3+1.2		-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.4*+0.7-0.8		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.3*-0.2+0.7
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.3*-0.1-0.5		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.3*-0.6-0.5		+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Detroit vs Denver	+0.4*+0.6-0.3		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.2*+0.1-0.2		-0.1*+0.0+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+3.5-1.7-7.0		+0.5-0.2-0.9
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.4*-0.3-0.4		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.2*-0.2+0.5
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-0.2*-0.1+0.4
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	+0.2*+0.0-0.4		+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.2*+0.2-0.2
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+0.2*+0.3-0.2
Atlanta vs Houston			+0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

15		14	-	0	-	0	In		100																148
14	.5	13	-	1	-	0	In		50	50															2
14		13	-	0	-	1	In		95	4			1												441
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		100																39
13		12	-	0	-	2	In		82	11	0		7												3,602
		11	-	2	-	1	In		86				14												7
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		76	15	1		8	0											388
12		11	-	0	-	3	100.0	%	49	25	3	0	22	1	0										17,384
		10	-	2	-	2	In		47	24			29												17
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		34	28	5	0	30	2											1,667
11		10	-	0	-	4	99.4		13	24	10	1	42	9	1	0									56,973
		9	-	2	-	3	In		18	23	12		40	7											60
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	97.7		5	16	13	2	44	17	2	0									4,944
		8	-	3	-	3	In							100											1
10		9	-	0	-	5	86.8		1	5	8	4	35	33	11	2	0	0							136,588
		8	-	2	-	4	89.3		2	5	12	2	33	36	9	2									196
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5	70.4		0	1	4	3	22	40	23	6	0	0							10,641
		7	-	3	-	4	66.7						33	33	33										3
9		8	-	0	-	6	35.2		0	0	1	2	7	25	33	22	8	2	0	0	0				241,063
		7	-	2	-	5	35.5			0	1	1	6	27	31	22	9	3	0						352
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6	11.1			0	0	1	1	9	26	34	21	7	1	0					16,211
		6	-	3	-	5	Out									25	38	38							8
8		7	-	0	-	7	2.5			0	0	0	0	2	10	23	29	22	10	3	0	0			318,593
		6	-	2	-	6	1.8					0		2	10	22	30	23	11	2	0				513
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7	0.1					0		0	1	7	21	32	26	11	2	0	0		18,444
		5	-	3	-	6	Out											50	25		25				4
7		6	-	0	-	8	0.0					0	0	0	0	2	8	19	28	25	13	4	1	0	314,007
		5	-	2	-	7	Out									2	6	16	33	28	9	4	1		426
		4	-	4	-	6	Out										100								1
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8	Out									0	1	5	17	32	30	13	2	0	15,673
		4	-	3	-	7	Out													83	17				6
6		5	-	0	-	9	Out									0	0	1	7	20	32	27	11	2	232,828
		4	-	2	-	8	Out										1	1	5	19	34	27	10	3	332
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out											0	1	6	22	38	27	7	9,635
		3	-	3	-	8	Out															33	67		3
5		4	-	0	-	10	Out											0	0	2	12	32	38	16	126,341
		3	-	2	-	9	Out													1	16	32	39	12	142
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out													0	2	17	45	36	4,147
		2	-	3	-	9	Out															50		50	2
4		3	-	0	-	11	Out													0	1	10	40	49	49,298
		2	-	2	-	10	Out															20	38	42	50
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out														0	2	25	73	1,113
		1	-	3	-	10	Out																	100	1
3		2	-	0	-	12	Out														0	1	20	79	13,004
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																10	90	10
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																10	90	217
2		1	-	0	-	13	Out																4	96	2,015
		0	-	2	-	12	Out																	100	1
1	.5	0	-	1	-	13	Out																6	94	16
1		0	-	0	-	14	Out																1	99	251

Total:							19.2	%	1	2	1	1	6	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	4	1,597,808

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15		14	-	0	-	0	99	1
14	.5	13	-	1	-	0	50		50
14		13	-	0	-	1	85	11	4						1
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	90	10
13		12	-	0	-	2	51	31	11	1	0				7	0
		11	-	2	-	1	57	29							14
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	40	36	14	1	1				8		0
12		11	-	0	-	3	12	36	17	8	3	0	0		21	1	1		0
		10	-	2	-	2		47	12	12					29
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	6	28	19	9	5	0	0		28	2	2
11		10	-	0	-	4	1	13	6	17	7	3	1	0	31	11	9	0	1	0
		9	-	2	-	3	2	17	8	15	10	2			23	17	7
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	0	5	2	14	8	5	2	0	30	14	16	1	2	0
		8	-	3	-	3											100
10		9	-	0	-	5	0	1	0	5	2	6	2	1	13	22	26	7	12	1	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4		2	1	5	5	8	1	1	11	21	30	6	10	1
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5		0		1	1	4	2	1	5	17	27	13	23	6	1	0
		7	-	3	-	4									33		33		33
9		8	-	0	-	6		0		0	0	1	1	1	1	7	8	16	33	20	8	2	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5				0		1	1	1	0	5	9	18	35	21	7	1		0
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6				0		0	0	1	0	1	1	8	12	25	27	17	6	2	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5														13	38	13	25		13
8		7	-	0	-	7				0		0	0	0		0	0	2	4	13	21	23	18	11	5	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6								0				2	5	11	19	23	20	11	6	2	2	0
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7								0				0	0	0	1	5	13	22	25	19	9	3	1	0	0
		5	-	3	-	6																			75	25
7		6	-	0	-	8								0		0		0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	20	19	14	8	4	1	0	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7															0	1	4	8	16	21	19	14	10	4	2	1
		4	-	4	-	6																				100
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8																		0	1	3	9	18	24	23	14	6	1	0	0
		4	-	3	-	7																						17	50	17	17
6		5	-	0	-	9																0	0	0	0	1	3	7	14	20	21	17	10	5	1	0	0	0
		4	-	2	-	8																					2	4	16	20	20	23	10	3	1	0
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9																					0	0	1	3	9	20	28	23	12	4	1	0
		3	-	3	-	8																										33		67
5		4	-	0	-	10																					0	0	0	1	3	10	19	25	23	13	5	1
		3	-	2	-	9																								1	4	11	20	23	23	11	6	1
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10																									0	1	3	11	24	34	21	6
		2	-	3	-	9																														100
4		3	-	0	-	11																									0	0	1	5	16	31	32	15
		2	-	2	-	10																												4	12	40	30	14
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11																												0	3	14	39	43
		1	-	3	-	10																																100
3		2	-	0	-	12																											0	0	1	9	35	55
		1	-	2	-	11																														10	40	50
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12																													0	2	18	80
2		1	-	0	-	13																													0	1	11	88
		0	-	2	-	12																															100
1	.5	0	-	1	-	13																															6	94
1		0	-	0	-	14																															1	99

Total:							0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	3	4	4	4	7	6	6	5	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1