Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances

																	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title														Libertadores			Chance will finish season at seed																						Serie B
	Sunday		P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength	8/26

Flamengo	W	Ceara 1-0	33		10	-	3	-	3	15	37.3	%	+16.7	95.5	%	+6.9	37	24	16	9	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.6	+0.96	0.0	%	-0.0	3	.594		Clube de Regatas do Flamengo
Santos	L	Fortaleza 0-1	32		10	-	2	-	4	10	27.0		-14.0	92.6		-3.1	27	24	18	12	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.0	-0.55	0.0		+0.0	5	.581		Santos Futebol Clube
Palmeiras			30	1	8	-	6	-	1	14	22.8		+2.6	90.5		+1.5	23	23	18	13	8	6	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.3	+0.20	0.0		+0.0	1	.574		Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
Sao Paulo	L	Vasco da Gama 0-1	27		7	-	6	-	3	8	3.2		-2.7	57.0		-10.6	3	7	10	12	13	12	10	9	7	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.3	-0.89	0.1		+0.1	2	.520		Sao Paulo Futebol Clube

Corinthians	L	Avai 0-1	27		7	-	6	-	3	8	3.1		-3.0	56.7		-12.1	3	7	10	12	13	12	10	9	7	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.4	-1.01	0.1		+0.1	4	.520		Sport Club Corinthians Paulista
Atletico-MG			27		8	-	3	-	5	5	3.1		+0.5	55.5		+4.6	3	6	10	12	12	12	10	9	7	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.4	+0.24	0.1		+0.0	8	.520		Clube Atletico Mineiro

Athletico-PR			25		8	-	1	-	7	8	1.4		+0.3	39.4		+4.3	1	3	6	8	10	11	11	10	9	8	7	5	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	7.7	+0.17	0.4		+0.1	7	.495		Clube Athletico Paranaense
Bahia			24		6	-	6	-	4	3	0.6		+0.1	27.9		+2.7	1	2	4	6	7	9	10	10	10	10	9	7	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	8.8		1.1		+0.3	6	.483		Esporte Clube Bahia
Internacional	L	Goias 0-1	24		7	-	3	-	6	4	0.6		-0.6	26.2		-9.2	1	2	3	5	7	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	9.0	-1.08	1.2		+0.7	9	.483		Sport Club Internacional
Botafogo			22	1	7	-	1	-	7	-1	0.5		+0.1	24.4		+3.4	1	2	3	5	7	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	7	5	4	2	1	0	0	0	9.2	+0.09	1.6		+0.3	10	.475	Chapecoense	Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas
Gremio			21		5	-	6	-	5	-1	0.1		+0.0	8.4		+1.5	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	6	8	9	10	11	11	11	9	6	4	2	1	0	11.6	-0.07	6.3		+1.0	13	.446		Gremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
Goias	W	Internacional 1-0	21		6	-	3	-	7	-9	0.1		+0.1	8.2		+5.0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	6	8	9	10	11	11	11	9	6	4	2	1	0	11.6	+1.25	6.2		-5.6	14	.446		Goias Esporte Clube
Fortaleza	W	Santos 1-0	20		6	-	2	-	8	-4	0.1		+0.0	6.2		+4.2	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	5	7	8	9	11	12	12	11	8	5	2	1	0	12.2	+1.35	8.4		-8.0	11	.434		Fortaleza Esporte Clube
Vasco da Gama	W	Sao Paulo 1-0	20		5	-	5	-	6	-7	0.0		+0.0	5.7		+3.7	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	12	12	11	8	5	3	1	0	12.3	+1.27	9.4		-8.0	12	.434		Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
Ceara	L	Flamengo 0-1	20		6	-	2	-	8	4	0.0		-0.0	5.3		-2.8	0	0	0	1	2	2	3	5	6	7	9	11	12	12	12	9	5	3	1	0	12.5	-1.13	9.6		+4.8	15	.434		Ceara Sporting Club
Chapecoense			13	1	3	-	4	-	8	-11	0.0			0.2		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	4	6	9	14	17	18	17	8	16.7	-0.28	60.7		+4.4	16	.365	at Botafogo	Associacao Chapecoense de Futebol

Cruzeiro	L	CSA 0-1	14		3	-	5	-	8	-10	0.0		-0.0	0.1		-0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	9	14	18	20	18	9	16.9	-1.16	64.5		+19.9	19	.360		Cruzeiro Esporte Clube
CSA	W	Cruzeiro 1-0	14		3	-	5	-	8	-17	0.0			0.1		+0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	9	14	18	19	18	9	16.9	+0.64	64.3		-11.8	17	.360		Centro Sportivo Alagoano
Fluminense			12	1	3	-	3	-	9	-6	0.0			0.1		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	7	12	17	20	21	12	17.3	-0.29	69.9		+4.1	18	.353		Fluminense Football Club
Avai	W	Corinthians 1-0	9		1	-	6	-	9	-13	0.0		+0.0	0.0		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	10	20	61	19.3	+0.31	95.8		-2.4	20	.299		Avai Futebol Clube

Big Games

Who should we root for? Explain

Week of 8/25
Santos 0 Fortaleza 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+2.7
Santos	-8.8		-2.6				-0.4
Palmeiras	+2.8
Sao Paulo	+1.0
Corinthians	+1.1
Atletico-MG	+0.5
Goias					+0.6
Fortaleza			+1.8		-6.7		+0.9
Vasco da Gama					+0.7
Chapecoense					+1.2
Cruzeiro					+1.2
CSA					+0.9
Fluminense					+1.2

Ceara 0 Flamengo 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+5.1		+4.0				+0.4
Santos	-2.2
Palmeiras	-1.2
Sao Paulo	-0.5
Corinthians	-0.5
Ceara			-2.6		+1.6		-0.5
Chapecoense					-0.3
Cruzeiro					-0.3

Avai 1 Corinthians 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+0.6		+0.6
Santos	+1.0		+0.3
Palmeiras	+0.6		+0.5
Sao Paulo	+0.2		+1.2
Corinthians	-2.7		-10.0				-0.8
Atletico-MG			+1.4
Athletico-PR			+1.4
Bahia			+1.1
Internacional			+1.2
Botafogo			+0.9
Gremio			+0.4
Ceara			+0.5
Avai					-1.7		+0.2

Vasco da Gama 1 Sao Paulo 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+0.5		+0.4
Santos	+0.8
Palmeiras	+0.5		+0.4
Sao Paulo	-2.3		-8.5				-0.7
Corinthians			+0.8
Atletico-MG			+0.9
Athletico-PR			+1.0
Bahia			+0.8
Internacional			+0.9
Botafogo			+0.7
Goias					+0.5
Fortaleza					+0.7
Vasco da Gama			+1.6		-6.5		+0.8
Chapecoense					+1.2
Cruzeiro					+1.1
CSA					+0.9
Fluminense					+1.1

Goias 1 Internacional 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo			+0.4
Palmeiras			+0.3
Sao Paulo			+0.7
Corinthians			+0.7
Atletico-MG			+0.8
Athletico-PR			+0.8
Bahia			+0.6
Internacional	-0.6		-7.9		+0.3		-0.7
Botafogo			+0.5
Goias			+2.1		-4.8		+0.8
Fortaleza					+0.4
Vasco da Gama					+0.5
Ceara			+0.3
Chapecoense					+0.8
Cruzeiro					+0.8
CSA					+0.6
Fluminense					+0.8

CSA 1 Cruzeiro 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Chapecoense					-0.2
Cruzeiro					+9.4		-0.6
CSA					-8.9		+0.5
Fluminense					-0.2

Botafogo vs ChapecoenseIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	0.80.40.2		30.420.917.2		0.71.82.8		8.59.610.1
Chapecoense			0.10.10.4		66.761.949.8		17.116.816.1
CSA					63.364.166.2		16.916.917.0

Week of 8/31
Flamengo vs PalmeirasIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	47.135.027.4		97.695.093.3		No0.00.0		2.12.63.0
Santos	25.728.927.2
Palmeiras	15.321.932.3		87.390.194.5				3.73.32.7

Chapecoense vs SantosHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	40.539.135.1						2.52.52.6
Santos	19.623.032.1		88.691.095.1				3.53.22.7
Palmeiras	25.124.021.2		90.7*90.590.3				3.23.33.3
Chapecoense			0.40.10.1		49.161.165.7		16.016.817.0
Cruzeiro					66.7*64.463.5		17.016.916.9
CSA					66.5*64.363.4		17.0*16.916.9

Corinthians vs Atletico-MGHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	4.82.51.8		66.754.347.3		0.0*0.10.3		5.66.57.1
Atletico-MG	1.82.54.8		46.953.866.2				7.16.65.6

Sao Paulo vs GremioHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo	4.62.41.8		65.553.547.3		0.0*0.10.3		5.76.67.1
Gremio			5.47.613.4		8.36.43.3		12.211.710.6

Athletico-PR vs CearaHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Athletico-PR	2.11.00.7		47.935.830.4		0.20.50.8		7.08.08.5
Ceara			3.24.68.7		12.69.95.4		13.112.611.5

Internacional vs BotafogoHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional	1.00.40.3		34.423.618.9		0.51.31.8		8.19.29.8
Botafogo	0.30.40.9		18.022.632.9		2.31.60.7		9.99.48.3

Bahia vs CSAHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bahia	0.90.40.3		34.423.920.0		0.51.22.1		8.19.29.7
Chapecoense					59.760.562.7		16.716.716.8
CSA			0.00.10.3		70.065.353.3		17.317.016.3

Fortaleza vs GoiasHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Goias			5.26.912.2		8.86.63.3		12.411.810.7
Fortaleza			9.35.13.8		4.89.011.7		11.312.412.9

Cruzeiro vs Vasco da GamaHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vasco da Gama			3.44.58.2		14.110.25.3		13.112.611.6
Cruzeiro	0.0NoNo				53.966.471.7		16.317.017.3

Fluminense vs AvaiHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense	0.0NoNo				62.373.377.8		16.817.417.8
Avai	NoNo0.0				97.696.492.9		19.519.318.9

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Marcos Vilhena for adding this league.