SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holding my newborn
4 a.m.

Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.5 to 78.1%

2-0-0 1.000

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	+0.5
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dallas vs Atlanta	-5.3+3.5+8.6		-0.5+0.3+0.8
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+1.0*+0.3-1.1		+0.1*+0.1-0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.5*+0.3+0.8
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.5*+0.8+0.8		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.2*+0.6+0.7		-0.1+0.1+0.2
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.2*+0.4+0.5
Arizona vs San Francisco	+0.2*+0.1-0.4
Detroit vs Denver	-0.3*-0.3+0.2		-0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Atlanta vs Houston	+3.2-1.8-10.2		+0.3-0.2-0.8
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.4*-0.0-1.0		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	-0.5*+0.0+0.5		+0.1*+0.1-0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.5*+0.6+0.5
Arizona vs St. Louis	+0.2*-0.5-0.4
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.2*-0.0-0.4
Washington vs Philadelphia	-0.1*-0.1+0.3
Chicago vs Oakland	-0.2*-0.5+0.2
New Orleans vs Dallas			+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Atlanta finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

15.5	-16						In		100																830	*
15		13	-	0	-	1	In		99	1			0												7,244
		12	-	2	-	0	In		100																2
14	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		99	1			0												675
14		12	-	0	-	2	In		94	5	0		1												36,438
		11	-	2	-	1	In		88	12															26
13	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		91	8	0		1												2,958
		10	-	3	-	1	In		100																1
13		11	-	0	-	3	In		77	18	1	0	4												110,211
		10	-	2	-	2	In		74	20			6												119
12	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		66	24	2	0	8												8,339
		9	-	3	-	2	In		80	20															5
12		10	-	0	-	4	100.0	%	43	33	8	0	15	0	0										222,024
		9	-	2	-	3	In		43	33	6	0	17												272
11	.5	9	-	1	-	4	In		27	35	12	1	24	0											15,097
		8	-	3	-	3	In			100															1
11		9	-	0	-	5	99.9		12	27	19	4	35	3	0	0									316,716
		8	-	2	-	4	99.8		13	27	18	3	35	3	0										435
10	.5	8	-	1	-	5	99.6		4	17	20	6	45	8	0										18,938
		7	-	3	-	4	In			14	29	14	43												7
10		8	-	0	-	6	95.8		1	6	15	10	43	21	4	0	0	0							329,214
		7	-	2	-	5	96.2		0	8	14	10	43	21	3	0									499
9	.5	7	-	1	-	6	88.2		0	2	8	10	36	34	10	1	0	0							17,271
		6	-	3	-	5	50.0							50		50									2
9		7	-	0	-	7	61.5		0	0	3	7	18	34	27	10	2	0	0	0					254,486
		6	-	2	-	6	63.4			1	2	8	15	38	26	9	2								383
8	.5	6	-	1	-	7	34.2				0	4	6	24	35	22	7	1	0						11,692
		5	-	3	-	6	50.0					17	17	17	33		17								6
8		6	-	0	-	8	11.1			0	0	1	1	8	24	30	22	10	3	0	0	0			146,941
		5	-	2	-	7	14.1					3	1	10	26	32	19	8	1						249
7	.5	5	-	1	-	8	1.4					0	0	1	7	23	32	25	10	2	0	0			5,726
		4	-	3	-	7	Out								100										1
7		5	-	0	-	9	0.2					0	0	0	2	9	20	28	24	13	4	1	0		62,990
		4	-	2	-	8	Out								4	6	17	31	28	9	1	4			100
6	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out									1	4	18	32	28	12	3	1	0	1,963
		3	-	3	-	8	Out													100					2
6		4	-	0	-	10	Out								0	0	1	7	19	29	26	13	4	0	19,902
		3	-	2	-	9	Out											9	17	22	35	13	4		23
5	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out										0	1	5	15	32	28	17	3	525
5		3	-	0	-	11	Out											0	2	8	21	35	26	8	4,515
		2	-	2	-	10	Out														40	20	20	20	5
4	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out													1	8	26	45	20	91
4		2	-	0	-	12	Out													0	3	19	41	36	675
3	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out															8	33	58	12
3		1	-	0	-	13	Out															3	24	74	72
2	.5	0	-	1	-	13	Out																	100	1
2		0	-	0	-	14	Out																10	90	124

Total:							78.1	%	17	13	9	4	22	12	8	5	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1,597,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dallas vs Atlanta	+1.1-0.6-1.8
Carolina vs New Orleans	+0.1-0.3-0.5
Houston vs Tampa Bay	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Arizona vs San Francisco	+0.0-0.1-0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.0*-0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.7+0.5+2.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	-0.2*-0.1+0.2
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.1-0.2+0.0
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		14	-	0	-	0	100	0
15	.5	13	-	1	-	0	100
15		13	-	0	-	1	98	1	1						0
		12	-	2	-	0	100
14	.5	12	-	1	-	1	96	2	1						0
14		12	-	0	-	2	88	7	5	0	0				1
		11	-	2	-	1	77	12	12
13	.5	11	-	1	-	2	80	10	8	0	0				1
		10	-	3	-	1	100
13		11	-	0	-	3	58	19	17	0	1	0	0		4	0
		10	-	2	-	2	54	20	19	1					6
12	.5	10	-	1	-	3	40	26	23	1	2		0		8	0
		9	-	3	-	2	80		20
12		10	-	0	-	4	18	25	28	5	7	0	0		15	0	0		0
		9	-	2	-	3	17	26	28	6	6		0		17	1
11	.5	9	-	1	-	4	6	22	25	10	11	0	1		22	2	0
		8	-	3	-	3			100
11		9	-	0	-	5	1	10	13	14	16	3	4	0	29	6	3	0	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4	1	12	12	15	16	3	3		29	6	3		0
10	.5	8	-	1	-	5	0	4	4	13	14	6	6	0	29	16	7	0	0
		7	-	3	-	4			14			29	14		29	14
10		8	-	0	-	6	0	1	1	6	7	8	9	1	20	23	18	3	4	0	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5		0	1	7	7	7	9	1	21	22	18	3	3	1
9	.5	7	-	1	-	6		0	0	2	1	6	7	3	5	30	20	14	10	2	0	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5											50			50
9		7	-	0	-	7		0	0	0	0	2	3	3	2	16	13	21	12	13	8	4	1	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6				1		2	5	3	1	14	14	23	11	12	10	3	1
8	.5	6	-	1	-	7					0	0	1	3	0	6	1	23	8	18	20	13	5	1	0	0
		5	-	3	-	6							17			17		17		17		17	17
8		6	-	0	-	8				0		0	0	1	0	1	0	8	1	4	8	14	19	19	14	7	3	1	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7							0	3		1	0	10	1	3	9	16	14	20	15	5	1	1
7	.5	5	-	1	-	8								0		0		1		0	1	4	12	22	24	20	11	4	1	0	0
		4	-	3	-	7																		100
7		5	-	0	-	9								0		0		0		0	0	0	1	3	6	12	18	21	19	12	6	2	0	0	0
		4	-	2	-	8																		2	8	11	23	24	16	7	8	1
6	.5	4	-	1	-	9																			0	2	6	15	24	24	18	8	2	0	0
		3	-	3	-	8																							50		50
6		4	-	0	-	10																			0	0	0	1	5	10	18	22	21	14	6	2	0	0
		3	-	2	-	9																							9	22	13	35	13	9
5	.5	3	-	1	-	10																							0	1	9	16	24	26	16	6	1
5		3	-	0	-	11																								0	1	3	8	18	27	26	14	3
		2	-	2	-	10																											20		20	20	20	20
4	.5	2	-	1	-	11																											2	11	25	31	23	8
4		2	-	0	-	12																											0	1	6	19	39	34
3	.5	1	-	1	-	12																													8	8	42	42
3		1	-	0	-	13																															31	69
2	.5	0	-	1	-	13																															100
2		0	-	0	-	14																															6	94

Total:							10	8	8	5	6	3	3	1	13	9	7	5	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0