SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Chicago Bears Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.4 to 5.2%

0-0-2 .000

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21			-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Seattle vs Chicago	-2.1*+0.1+3.4		-0.7+0.2+1.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.3*+0.7+0.6		-0.0+0.1+0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.3*+0.3+0.4		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.2*-0.0+0.3
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.2*+0.3-0.2
Dallas vs Atlanta	+0.1*+0.2-0.2
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.1*+0.2+0.2		+0.0-0.1-0.1
Arizona vs San Francisco	+0.1*+0.4-0.2
Detroit vs Denver	-0.1*-0.4+0.1		-0.1*-0.1+0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia			+0.0*+0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago vs Oakland	+2.1*-0.2-2.2		+0.6*+0.0-0.6
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.2*+0.3-0.5		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.2*+0.4-0.3
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.1*-0.2+0.2
Seattle vs Detroit	+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.1*+0.2-0.1		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas			-0.1*-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14		14	-	0	-	0	In		91	8			1												125
13		13	-	0	-	1	In		65	35															78
12	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		33	56			11												9
12		12	-	0	-	2	In		31	41	14	2	12	0											766
11	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		14	46	25	3	13												79
11		11	-	0	-	3	99.8	%	7	25	29	9	25	5	0										4,780
		10	-	2	-	2	In			25	38		38												8
10	.5	10	-	1	-	3	99.0		2	16	30	14	28	8	1										497
10		10	-	0	-	4	93.7		0	5	19	19	28	22	6	1	0								21,161
		9	-	2	-	3	96.4			11	25	11	29	21	4										28
9	.5	9	-	1	-	4	84.0			2	11	21	18	31	14	2	0								2,082
		8	-	3	-	3	In							100											1
9		9	-	0	-	5	55.4			0	4	15	9	27	27	13	4	1	0	0					65,124
		8	-	2	-	4	61.8				6	15	17	25	24	12	2								89
8	.5	8	-	1	-	5	29.1			0	1	10	2	16	33	26	10	2	0	0					5,889
8		8	-	0	-	6	10.1			0	0	4	0	5	17	27	26	14	5	1	0	0			147,996
		7	-	2	-	5	9.7				0	5		5	15	28	26	16	4	1					236
7	.5	7	-	1	-	6	2.4				0	2	0	1	5	18	30	28	13	3	0	0			11,774
		6	-	3	-	5	12.5							13	13	13	25	13	13	13					8
7		7	-	0	-	7	0.6				0	1	0	0	1	5	15	26	27	17	6	1	0	0	253,189
		6	-	2	-	6	0.3					0			1	5	12	27	30	18	6	1			382
		5	-	4	-	5	Out										50	50							2
6	.5	6	-	1	-	7	0.1				0	0			0	0	4	15	30	30	16	4	1	0	17,220
		5	-	3	-	6	Out											11	22	56	11				9
6		6	-	0	-	8	0.0					0			0	0	1	4	14	27	29	18	6	1	325,618
		5	-	2	-	7	Out										1	4	11	28	32	18	5	1	490
5	.5	5	-	1	-	8	Out										0	0	3	15	31	33	16	2	18,826
		4	-	3	-	7	Out														25	75			4
5		5	-	0	-	9	0.0					0					0	0	1	5	18	34	31	11	312,918
		4	-	2	-	8	Out												0	3	18	32	33	14	449
4	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out												0	1	6	25	43	26	14,861
		3	-	3	-	8	Out														20	40	20	20	5
4		4	-	0	-	10	Out												0	0	2	13	40	44	221,098
		3	-	2	-	9	Out														2	12	38	48	254
3	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out														0	4	30	66	8,238
		2	-	3	-	9	Out																	100	3
3		3	-	0	-	11	Out														0	2	19	79	111,901
		2	-	2	-	10	Out																18	82	99
2	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out															0	9	91	3,169
2		2	-	0	-	12	Out															0	5	95	38,669
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																	100	32
1	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																1	99	721
1		1	-	0	-	13	Out															0	1	99	8,001
		0	-	2	-	12	Out																	100	1
0	-0.5						Out																	100	919	*

Total:							5.2	%	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	8	10	11	13	15	18	1,597,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Seattle vs Chicago	+1.2-0.6-2.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.0+0.1+0.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.0-0.1+0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland	+0.0*-0.2-0.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Denver	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Dallas vs Atlanta	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago vs Oakland	-1.5-0.1+1.6
Washington vs Philadelphia	-0.0*+0.1+0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland	-0.0+0.0+0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Seattle vs Detroit	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14		14	-	0	-	0	89	2	8						1
13		13	-	0	-	1	42	23	35
12	.5	12	-	1	-	1	22	11	44	11					11
12		12	-	0	-	2	8	23	30	11	14	0	2		11	1	0
11	.5	11	-	1	-	2	5	9	34	11	25		3		11	1
11		11	-	0	-	3	0	7	7	18	21	8	8	0	18	7	5	0	0
		10	-	2	-	2				25	25	13			38
10	.5	10	-	1	-	3	0	2	4	12	20	10	14	0	18	10	8	0	1
10		10	-	0	-	4		0	0	5	5	14	15	4	7	20	15	6	5	1	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3				11	7	18	4	7	11	18	14	7	4
9	.5	9	-	1	-	4				2	2	9	15	6	3	15	20	12	13	3	0
		8	-	3	-	3											100
9		9	-	0	-	5				0	0	4	5	9	0	9	4	23	15	15	9	4	1	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4						6	1	13		17	3	21	11	16	11
8	.5	8	-	1	-	5				0	0	1	3	7	0	2	1	15	9	20	22	13	5	2	0
8		8	-	0	-	6				0		0	0	4		0	0	5	1	4	10	16	19	18	12	6	2	1	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5						0		5				5	2	3	15	19	18	15	12	2	2	1	1
7	.5	7	-	1	-	6						0	0	2		0		1		0	1	5	12	21	24	20	10	4	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5												13				13	13	25		25	13
7		7	-	0	-	7						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	0	1	3	8	14	19	20	17	11	5	2	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6								0									2	3	6	16	14	21	23	9	5	2	0
		5	-	4	-	5																			50	50
6	.5	6	-	1	-	7						0		0										0	0	2	7	16	23	24	17	8	2	0	0	0
		5	-	3	-	6																						22	11	33	22	11
6		6	-	0	-	8								0									0	0	0	0	1	2	6	12	19	23	19	12	5	1	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7																				0	0	2	6	12	21	19	20	12	5	1	1
5	.5	5	-	1	-	8																					0	0	0	2	7	16	26	26	15	5	1	0
		4	-	3	-	7																												100
5		5	-	0	-	9								0														0	0	0	1	4	10	20	27	24	12	3
		4	-	2	-	8																									1	5	10	17	27	25	11	4
4	.5	4	-	1	-	9																									0	0	2	9	23	33	25	8
		3	-	3	-	8																											20		20	60
4		4	-	0	-	10																									0	0	0	2	8	24	39	27
		3	-	2	-	9																										0	0	1	8	20	44	26
3	.5	3	-	1	-	10																											0	0	2	12	40	46
		2	-	3	-	9																														33	67
3		3	-	0	-	11																												0	0	4	26	69
		2	-	2	-	10																														4	22	74
2	.5	2	-	1	-	11																														1	16	83
2		2	-	0	-	12																													0	0	7	93
		1	-	2	-	11																															6	94
1	.5	1	-	1	-	12																															2	98
1		1	-	0	-	13																														0	1	99
		0	-	2	-	12																																100
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	9	10	12