Denver Broncos Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.02 to 77.7%

2-0-0 1.000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit vs Denver	-7.3*-0.9+5.3		-0.7*-0.1+0.5
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.7-1.8-1.4		+0.1-0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.8*-0.1-1.4		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland	+0.5*+0.2-0.8		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.2*+0.2+0.7		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.3*+0.0-0.4
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.2*-0.1+0.5
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.3*-0.1-0.2

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Denver vs Minnesota	+4.1-3.7-8.9		+0.4-0.3-0.8
Chicago vs Oakland	+1.0*+0.6-1.0		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	+0.5*-0.9-1.0		+0.0*-0.1-0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland	-0.5*+0.4+0.8		-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-0.2*-0.2+0.5
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.2*-0.0+0.4
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Miami vs NY Jets			+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Denver finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

15.5	-16						In		100																1,029	*
15		13	-	0	-	1	In		100	0															8,842
		12	-	2	-	0	In		100																2
14	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		99	1															774
14		12	-	0	-	2	In		97	3	0		0												41,049
		11	-	2	-	1	In		100																28
13	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		93	6	0		0												3,246
		10	-	3	-	1	In		100																1
13		11	-	0	-	3	In		85	15	1	0	0	0											116,258
		10	-	2	-	2	In		85	13	2														124
12	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		73	25	2	0	1												8,400
		9	-	3	-	2	In			100															2
12		10	-	0	-	4	100.0	%	55	36	6	0	2	0	0										223,286
		9	-	2	-	3	In		50	42	5		2												277
11	.5	9	-	1	-	4	100.0		36	45	14	1	5	0	0										14,970
		8	-	3	-	3	In		80		20														5
11		9	-	0	-	5	99.9		19	42	25	3	9	1	0	0									309,797
		8	-	2	-	4	99.5		17	41	28	3	9	2	0										434
10	.5	8	-	1	-	5	99.4		6	32	36	7	14	5	1	0									18,319
		7	-	3	-	4	In			50	38		13												8
10		8	-	0	-	6	95.8		2	16	35	14	16	13	4	1	0	0							320,280
		7	-	2	-	5	97.4		1	17	35	16	15	13	2	0									461
9	.5	7	-	1	-	6	84.2		0	4	26	19	12	23	13	3	0	0							16,857
		6	-	3	-	5	83.3				17	17		50	17										6
9		7	-	0	-	7	60.3		0	1	14	19	7	19	22	13	4	1	0	0					249,395
		6	-	2	-	6	65.8			0	15	20	8	21	23	8	3								406
8	.5	6	-	1	-	7	26.7			0	4	13	1	9	24	28	16	5	1	0					11,411
		5	-	3	-	6	40.0					40			60										5
8		6	-	0	-	8	12.4			0	1	8	0	3	13	24	25	17	7	2	0	0	0		148,310
		5	-	2	-	7	13.6				3	7		4	7	23	31	17	7	2	0				236
7	.5	5	-	1	-	8	2.5				0	2		0	1	7	22	31	24	9	2	0	0		5,821
		4	-	3	-	7	Out										50	25			25				4
7		5	-	0	-	9	0.9				0	1		0	0	3	10	22	28	22	11	3	0	0	66,429
		4	-	2	-	8	Out									2	10	18	32	23	10	4			90
6	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out										1	5	17	30	31	14	2	0	2,171
		3	-	3	-	8	Out															100			1
6		4	-	0	-	10	0.0					0					0	2	8	21	32	25	10	2	21,966
		3	-	2	-	9	Out												10	7	48	21	14		29
5	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out												1	5	20	38	29	7	549
5		3	-	0	-	11	Out												0	2	12	32	37	16	5,325
		2	-	2	-	10	Out															29	29	43	7
4	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out														6	17	38	39	104
4		2	-	0	-	12	Out													0	1	11	36	52	857
		1	-	2	-	11	Out															100			1
3	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																6	94	17
3		1	-	0	-	13	Out															1	11	88	91
2	.5	0	-	1	-	13	Out																	100	1
2		0	-	0	-	14	Out																4	96	127

Total:							77.7	%	22	19	16	7	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	1,597,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Detroit vs Denver	+1.5+0.1-1.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.1*+0.0+0.2
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.1+0.2+0.2
Cleveland vs Oakland	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	+0.0-0.1-0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans	+0.0*+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.9+0.6+1.9
Chicago vs Oakland	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland	+0.1-0.1-0.1
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.0+0.1+0.1
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	-0.0-0.1+0.0
Miami vs NY Jets	-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis	+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		13	-	0	-	1	98	2	0
		12	-	2	-	0	100
14	.5	12	-	1	-	1	96	3	1
14		12	-	0	-	2	89	8	3	0	0				0
		11	-	2	-	1	93	7
13	.5	11	-	1	-	2	79	14	6	0	0				0
		10	-	3	-	1	100
13		11	-	0	-	3	60	24	14	0	1		0		0	0	0
		10	-	2	-	2	53	32	12	1	2
12	.5	10	-	1	-	3	40	33	23	2	2		0		1	0
		9	-	3	-	2			100
12		10	-	0	-	4	21	34	29	7	6	0	0	0	2	0	0		0
		9	-	2	-	3	26	24	32	10	5	0			2	0
11	.5	9	-	1	-	4	6	29	28	17	13	1	1		4	0	0		0
		8	-	3	-	3	20	60				20
11		9	-	0	-	5	2	17	18	25	20	5	3	0	8	1	1	0	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4	2	15	19	21	21	6	3		8	1	2		0
10	.5	8	-	1	-	5	0	6	5	27	22	15	6	1	10	4	5	0	1	0
		7	-	3	-	4				50	25	13			13
10		8	-	0	-	6	0	2	1	15	14	22	11	3	9	8	11	1	4	1	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5		1	2	15	13	22	14	2	7	8	12	2	2	1
9	.5	7	-	1	-	6		0	0	4	3	23	11	8	3	10	15	7	12	3	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5						17	17				50		17
9		7	-	0	-	7		0	0	1	1	13	8	11	1	6	10	9	15	14	8	3	1	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6				0	1	15	9	11	0	8	11	11	11	15	5	2	1
8	.5	6	-	1	-	7				0	0	4	2	11	0	1	1	8	9	21	22	14	5	1	0	0
		5	-	3	-	6								40					40	20
8		6	-	0	-	8				0	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	3	1	6	13	18	19	15	9	5	2	0	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7						3	2	5				4	0	5	14	14	21	15	12	3	1	1
7	.5	5	-	1	-	8						0	0	2				0		0	1	4	12	20	24	20	11	4	1	0
		4	-	3	-	7																			50	25		25
7		5	-	0	-	9						0	0	1				0		0	0	0	2	5	10	16	19	19	15	8	4	1	0	0	0
		4	-	2	-	8																	1	1	11	22	17	27	10	7	4
6	.5	4	-	1	-	9																		0	1	2	7	16	24	23	16	8	2	1	0
		3	-	3	-	8																								100
6		4	-	0	-	10								0										0	0	0	1	3	8	15	20	21	17	10	4	1	0	0
		3	-	2	-	9																						3	7	24	21	10	17	14		3
5	.5	3	-	1	-	10																							0	2	9	16	25	27	15	4	1
5		3	-	0	-	11																							0	0	2	5	14	21	26	21	9	2
		2	-	2	-	10																												14	29	43	14
4	.5	2	-	1	-	11																											6	11	22	36	18	8
4		2	-	0	-	12																											1	2	10	25	39	24
		1	-	2	-	11																														100
3	.5	1	-	1	-	12																														6	41	53
3		1	-	0	-	13																														5	32	63
2	.5	0	-	1	-	13																																100
2		0	-	0	-	14																															5	95

Total:							11	11	9	10	8	8	4	3	4	3	4	2	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0