BFC Title Chances Fall2014 50/50
Lost to Old Timers 4-6, title odds down 2.4 to 2.5%
0 points 0-0-2
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 9/16 | 100.0* | Chance wins title | 100.0* | Top 4 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| BFC 4 Old Timers 6 | -2.6 | -9.9 | -0.8 | |||
| Valor FC 2 Aeros 2 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +0.1 | |||
| Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2 | +0.2 | *-0.1 | -0.0 | |||
| Grass Stains 0 SS Balls 9 | -0.2 | -0.3 | ||||
| Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.0 | |||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||
| Week of 9/23 | 100.0* | Chance wins title | 100.0* | Top 4 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| BFC vs Grass Kickers | +2.1-0.9-1.5 | +10.1-3.3-7.9 | +0.9-0.2-0.8 | |||
| SS Balls vs Aeros | -0.3+0.3+0.1 | -0.1+0.6-0.3 | ||||
| Old Timers vs Valor FC | *-0.0+0.2-0.1 | -0.2+0.7-0.3 | ||||
| Real Teal vs Average Joes | -0.1+0.2-0.1 | -0.3+0.8-0.2 | -0.0+0.1-0.0 | |||
| Ball Busters vs Grass Stains | -0.0+0.2-0.1 | -0.2+0.7-0.2 | -0.0+0.1-0.0 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the BFC finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance | Chance will finish season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | D | - | L | wins title | Top 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Count | ||||
| 30 | 10 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 99.9 | % | Yes | 100 | 0 | 2,314 | |||||||||||
| 28 | 9 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 98.3 | Yes | 98 | 2 | 2,709 | ||||||||||||
| 27 | 9 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 95.2 | Yes | 95 | 5 | 0 | 4,202 | |||||||||||
| 26 | 8 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 92.4 | Yes | 92 | 8 | 0 | 8,207 | |||||||||||
| 25 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 83.6 | Yes | 84 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 25,074 | ||||||||||
| 24 | 8 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 71.1 | Yes | 71 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 18,698 | ||||||||||
| 7 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 74.1 | Yes | 74 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 14,719 | |||||||||||
| 23 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 56.4 | 100.0 | % | 56 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66,854 | ||||||||
| 22 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 35.6 | 100.0 | 36 | 47 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 99,570 | |||||||||
| 6 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 37.7 | 100.0 | 38 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 17,286 | ||||||||||
| 21 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 19.5 | 99.7 | 19 | 46 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 102,737 | ||||||||
| 7 | - | 0 | - | 3 | 18.3 | 99.6 | 18 | 46 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50,081 | |||||||||
| 20 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 6.5 | 97.5 | 6 | 32 | 41 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 232,169 | |||||||
| 5 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 5.7 | 97.0 | 6 | 32 | 41 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 13,860 | |||||||||
| 19 | 6 | - | 1 | - | 3 | 1.2 | 87.2 | 1 | 13 | 38 | 35 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 232,174 | |||||||
| 5 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 1.2 | 86.8 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 35 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 103,529 | ||||||||
| 18 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 0.1 | 62.3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 40 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 309,195 | ||||||
| 6 | - | 0 | - | 4 | 0.1 | 62.2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 40 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 94,808 | * | ||||||
| 17 | 5 | - | 2 | - | 3 | 0.0 | 27.6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 41 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 465,039 | |||||
| 4 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 0.0 | 23.4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 40 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 68,463 | ||||||
| 16 | 5 | - | 1 | - | 4 | No | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 41 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 348,105 | |||||
| 4 | - | 4 | - | 2 | No | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 40 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 259,481 | * | |||||
| 15 | 4 | - | 3 | - | 3 | No | 0.6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 40 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 514,855 | ||||||
| 5 | - | 0 | - | 5 | No | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 41 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 104,035 | |||||||
| 3 | - | 6 | - | 1 | No | 0.4 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 42 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 30,459 | ||||||||
| 14 | 4 | - | 2 | - | 4 | No | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 39 | 14 | 1 | 580,643 | |||||||
| 3 | - | 5 | - | 2 | No | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 41 | 17 | 2 | 137,650 | * | |||||||
| 13 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 5 | No | No | 0 | 2 | 16 | 41 | 34 | 7 | 357,723 | * | |||||||
| 3 | - | 4 | - | 3 | No | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 40 | 35 | 8 | 343,572 | ||||||||
| 12 | 3 | - | 3 | - | 4 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 48 | 21 | 515,259 | ||||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | - | 6 | No | No | 0 | 4 | 28 | 48 | 20 | 87,304 | * | |||||||||
| 2 | - | 6 | - | 2 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 49 | 24 | 45,775 | |||||||||
| 11 | 3 | - | 2 | - | 5 | No | No | 0 | 1 | 12 | 46 | 41 | 464,010 | |||||||||
| 2 | - | 5 | - | 3 | No | No | 0 | 1 | 10 | 44 | 45 | 139,061 | * | |||||||||
| 10 | 2 | - | 4 | - | 4 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 63 | 257,716 | |||||||||
| 3 | - | 1 | - | 6 | No | No | 0 | 4 | 35 | 61 | 240,150 | * | ||||||||||
| 9 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 5 | No | No | 0 | 1 | 21 | 78 | 309,174 | ||||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | - | 7 | No | No | 0 | 1 | 21 | 77 | 49,475 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 6 | - | 3 | No | No | 0 | 1 | 18 | 81 | 30,743 | * | ||||||||||
| 8 | 2 | - | 2 | - | 6 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 11 | 89 | 231,377 | ||||||||||
| 1 | - | 5 | - | 4 | No | No | 0 | 9 | 91 | 69,665 | * | |||||||||||
| 7 | 1 | - | 4 | - | 5 | No | No | 0 | 4 | 96 | 103,077 | |||||||||||
| 2 | - | 1 | - | 7 | No | No | 0 | 5 | 95 | 102,596 | * | |||||||||||
| 6 | 1 | - | 3 | - | 6 | No | No | 0 | 2 | 98 | 103,353 | |||||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | - | 8 | No | No | 2 | 98 | 26,507 | * | ||||||||||||
| 5 | 1 | - | 2 | - | 7 | No | No | 0 | 100 | 79,686 | * | |||||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 1 | - | 8 | No | No | 0 | 100 | 24,788 | ||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 4 | - | 6 | No | No | 0 | 100 | 17,184 | |||||||||||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 3 | - | 7 | No | No | 0 | 100 | 18,883 | * | |||||||||||
| 0 | -2 | No | No | 100 | 13,506 | * | ||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 2.5 | % | 18.3 | % | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 24 | 7,537,500 | |||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Points
Chance Will Win Championship
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 9/16 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| BFC 4 Old Timers 6 | +0.8 | |
| Valor FC 2 Aeros 2 | -0.1 | |
| Ball Busters 0 Real Teal 2 | +0.0 | |
| Grass Kickers 2 Average Joes 8 | +0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||
| Week of 9/23 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| BFC vs Grass Kickers | -0.9+0.2+0.8 | |
| Real Teal vs Average Joes | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | |
| Ball Busters vs Grass Stains | +0.0-0.1+0.0 | |
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | D | - | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| 30 | 10 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 100 | 0 | |||||||||
| 28 | 9 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 98 | 2 | |||||||||
| 27 | 9 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 95 | 5 | 0 | ||||||||
| 26 | 8 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 92 | 8 | 0 | ||||||||
| 25 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 24 | 8 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 71 | 27 | 2 | 0 | |||||||
| 7 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 74 | 24 | 2 | 0 | ||||||||
| 23 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 56 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| 22 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 36 | 47 | 16 | 2 | 0 | ||||||
| 6 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 38 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 21 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 19 | 46 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| 7 | - | 0 | - | 3 | 18 | 46 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| 20 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 6 | 32 | 41 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| 5 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 6 | 32 | 41 | 19 | 3 | 0 | ||||||
| 19 | 6 | - | 1 | - | 3 | 1 | 13 | 38 | 35 | 12 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| 5 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 35 | 12 | 1 | 0 | |||||
| 18 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 40 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0 | |||
| 6 | - | 0 | - | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 40 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| 17 | 5 | - | 2 | - | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 41 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 4 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 40 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | |||
| 16 | 5 | - | 1 | - | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 41 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 4 | - | 4 | - | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 40 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 15 | 4 | - | 3 | - | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 40 | 20 | 3 | 0 | |||
| 5 | - | 0 | - | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 41 | 19 | 3 | 0 | ||||
| 3 | - | 6 | - | 1 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 42 | 23 | 4 | 0 | |||||
| 14 | 4 | - | 2 | - | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 39 | 14 | 1 | ||||
| 3 | - | 5 | - | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 41 | 17 | 2 | |||||
| 13 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 41 | 34 | 7 | |||||
| 3 | - | 4 | - | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 40 | 35 | 8 | |||||
| 12 | 3 | - | 3 | - | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 48 | 21 | |||||
| 4 | - | 0 | - | 6 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 48 | 20 | |||||||
| 2 | - | 6 | - | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 49 | 24 | ||||||
| 11 | 3 | - | 2 | - | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 46 | 41 | ||||||
| 2 | - | 5 | - | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 44 | 45 | |||||||
| 10 | 2 | - | 4 | - | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 63 | ||||||
| 3 | - | 1 | - | 6 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 61 | ||||||||
| 9 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 78 | |||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | - | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 77 | ||||||||
| 1 | - | 6 | - | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 81 | ||||||||
| 8 | 2 | - | 2 | - | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 89 | |||||||
| 1 | - | 5 | - | 4 | 0 | 9 | 91 | |||||||||
| 7 | 1 | - | 4 | - | 5 | 0 | 4 | 96 | ||||||||
| 2 | - | 1 | - | 7 | 0 | 5 | 95 | |||||||||
| 6 | 1 | - | 3 | - | 6 | 0 | 2 | 98 | ||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | - | 8 | 2 | 98 | ||||||||||
| 5 | 1 | - | 2 | - | 7 | 0 | 100 | |||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 1 | - | 8 | 0 | 100 | |||||||||
| 0 | - | 4 | - | 6 | 0 | 100 | ||||||||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 3 | - | 7 | 0 | 100 | |||||||||
| 0 | -2 | 100 | ||||||||||||||
| Total: | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 24 | ||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 1:33 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
