Valor FC Title Chances Fall2014 50/50

Tied Aeros 2-2, title odds down 2.7 to 12.1%

4 points 1-1-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Valor FC finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Top 4		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

34	10	-	0	-	0	Yes		Yes		100										2,273
32	9	-	1	-	0	100.0	%	Yes		100	0									2,896
31	9	-	0	-	1	99.7		Yes		100	0									4,146
30	8	-	2	-	0	99.7		Yes		100	0									8,404
29	8	-	1	-	1	98.9		Yes		99	1	0								24,919
28	8	-	0	-	2	97.1		Yes		97	3	0								33,146	*
27	7	-	2	-	1	94.3		Yes		94	6	0								65,858
26	7	-	1	-	2	88.7		Yes		89	11	0								99,234
	6	-	4	-	0	90.9		Yes		91	9	0								16,973
25	6	-	3	-	1	79.8		Yes		80	19	1	0							103,238
	7	-	0	-	3	77.9		Yes		78	21	1	0							49,732
24	6	-	2	-	2	66.9		Yes		67	30	3	0							246,005	*
23	6	-	1	-	3	48.6		100.0	%	49	43	8	0	0						232,710
	5	-	4	-	1	50.0		100.0		50	42	8	0	0						102,952
22	5	-	3	-	2	29.7		99.9		30	48	20	2	0						309,424
	6	-	0	-	4	29.5		99.9		30	48	20	2	0						94,786	*
21	5	-	2	-	3	14.0		99.4		14	43	34	8	1	0					464,545
	4	-	5	-	1	15.0		99.6		15	45	33	7	0	0					68,785
20	5	-	1	-	4	4.2		95.9		4	27	43	23	4	0	0				347,773
	4	-	4	-	2	3.9		96.0		4	26	43	23	4	0	0				260,736	*
19	4	-	3	-	3	0.6		81.5		1	9	33	39	16	2	0	0			515,813
	5	-	0	-	5	0.7		81.7		1	9	33	38	16	2	0	0			104,362
	3	-	6	-	1	0.6		85.8		1	11	37	38	13	1	0				30,216
18	4	-	2	-	4	0.0		53.4		0	2	14	37	34	11	1	0			579,556
	3	-	5	-	2	0.0		53.6		0	1	14	38	35	10	1	0			137,521	*
17	4	-	1	-	5	0.0		20.9		0	0	3	18	39	31	8	1	0		349,319
	3	-	4	-	3	0.0		18.5		0	0	2	16	39	33	9	1	0		352,624	*
16	3	-	3	-	4	No		3.6			0	0	3	20	40	29	7	0	0	515,909
	4	-	0	-	6	No		4.1			0	0	4	22	40	27	6	0	0	87,341
	2	-	6	-	2	No		3.6				0	3	22	42	27	5	0	0	45,733	*
15	3	-	2	-	5	No		0.3				0	0	5	25	41	24	4	0	464,090
	2	-	5	-	3	No		0.2				0	0	4	24	42	25	4	0	138,282	*
14	2	-	4	-	4	No		0.0					0	0	7	30	42	19	2	257,340
	3	-	1	-	6	No		0.0					0	1	8	32	41	17	2	241,710	*
13	2	-	3	-	5	No		0.0					0	0	1	13	39	38	9	308,605
	3	-	0	-	7	No		No						0	2	14	41	36	8	49,870
	1	-	6	-	3	No		No						0	1	13	40	38	8	30,779	*
12	2	-	2	-	6	No		No						0	0	4	25	49	22	231,595
	1	-	5	-	4	No		No						0	0	3	24	49	24	69,930	*
11	1	-	4	-	5	No		No							0	1	10	45	44	103,534
	2	-	1	-	7	No		No							0	1	12	47	41	102,203	*
10	1	-	3	-	6	No		No								0	3	34	63	102,512
	2	-	0	-	8	No		No								0	4	35	61	26,106	*
9	1	-	2	-	7	No		No								0	1	21	78	79,897	*
8	1	-	1	-	8	No		No									0	11	88	24,828
	0	-	4	-	6	No		No									0	11	89	16,876
7	0	-	3	-	7	No		No									0	5	95	19,000	*
6	0	-	2	-	8	No		No										2	98	8,380
5	0	-	1	-	9	No		No										1	99	2,748
4	0	-	0	-	10	No		No											100	2,286

Total:						12.1	%	47.6	%	12	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	8	5	7,537,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

34	10	-	0	-	0	100
32	9	-	1	-	0	100	0
31	9	-	0	-	1	100	0
30	8	-	2	-	0	100	0
29	8	-	1	-	1	99	1	0
28	8	-	0	-	2	97	3	0
27	7	-	2	-	1	94	6	0
26	7	-	1	-	2	89	11	0
	6	-	4	-	0	91	9	0
25	6	-	3	-	1	80	19	1	0
	7	-	0	-	3	78	21	1	0
24	6	-	2	-	2	67	30	3	0
23	6	-	1	-	3	49	43	8	0	0
	5	-	4	-	1	50	42	8	0	0
22	5	-	3	-	2	30	48	20	2	0
	6	-	0	-	4	30	48	20	2	0
21	5	-	2	-	3	14	43	34	8	1	0
	4	-	5	-	1	15	45	33	7	0	0
20	5	-	1	-	4	4	27	43	23	4	0	0
	4	-	4	-	2	4	26	43	23	4	0	0
19	4	-	3	-	3	1	9	33	39	16	2	0	0
	5	-	0	-	5	1	9	33	38	16	2	0	0
	3	-	6	-	1	1	11	37	38	13	1	0
18	4	-	2	-	4	0	2	14	37	34	11	1	0
	3	-	5	-	2	0	1	14	38	35	10	1	0
17	4	-	1	-	5	0	0	3	18	39	31	8	1	0
	3	-	4	-	3	0	0	2	16	39	33	9	1	0
16	3	-	3	-	4		0	0	3	20	40	29	7	0	0
	4	-	0	-	6		0	0	4	22	40	27	6	0	0
	2	-	6	-	2			0	3	22	42	27	5	0	0
15	3	-	2	-	5			0	0	5	25	41	24	4	0
	2	-	5	-	3			0	0	4	24	42	25	4	0
14	2	-	4	-	4				0	0	7	30	42	19	2
	3	-	1	-	6				0	1	8	32	41	17	2
13	2	-	3	-	5				0	0	1	13	39	38	9
	3	-	0	-	7					0	2	14	41	36	8
	1	-	6	-	3					0	1	13	40	38	8
12	2	-	2	-	6					0	0	4	25	49	22
	1	-	5	-	4					0	0	3	24	49	24
11	1	-	4	-	5						0	1	10	45	44
	2	-	1	-	7						0	1	12	47	41
10	1	-	3	-	6							0	3	34	63
	2	-	0	-	8							0	4	35	61
9	1	-	2	-	7							0	1	21	78
8	1	-	1	-	8								0	11	88
	0	-	4	-	6								0	11	89
7	0	-	3	-	7								0	5	95
6	0	-	2	-	8									2	98
5	0	-	1	-	9									1	99
4	0	-	0	-	10										100

Total:						12	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	8	5