The Old Timers Title Chances Fall2014 50/50

Beat BFC 6-4, title odds up 3.9 to 9%

3 points 1-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Old Timers finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Top 4		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

33	10	-	0	-	0	Yes		Yes		100										2,317
31	9	-	1	-	0	99.9	%	Yes		100	0									2,816
30	9	-	0	-	1	99.5		Yes		99	1									4,174
29	8	-	2	-	0	99.3		Yes		99	1									8,296
28	8	-	1	-	1	97.5		Yes		98	2									24,843
27	8	-	0	-	2	95.4		Yes		95	5	0								33,243	*
26	7	-	2	-	1	90.9		Yes		91	9	0								65,771
25	7	-	1	-	2	81.1		Yes		81	18	1	0							99,437
	6	-	4	-	0	83.6		Yes		84	16	0								17,147
24	6	-	3	-	1	70.6		Yes		71	27	2	0							103,379
	7	-	0	-	3	68.7		Yes		69	29	3	0							49,699
23	6	-	2	-	2	53.0		100.0	%	53	40	7	0	0						244,971	*
22	6	-	1	-	3	32.6		100.0		33	48	18	2	0	0					233,212
	5	-	4	-	1	34.2		100.0		34	48	16	2	0						103,178
21	5	-	3	-	2	17.0		99.6		17	45	31	6	0	0					308,196
	6	-	0	-	4	16.4		99.6		16	45	31	7	0	0					94,716	*
20	5	-	2	-	3	5.5		97.0		5	30	42	19	3	0	0				464,896
	4	-	5	-	1	5.3		97.0		5	29	42	20	3	0					68,660
19	5	-	1	-	4	0.9		85.4		1	12	36	36	13	2	0	0			347,843
	4	-	4	-	2	0.9		85.3		1	12	36	37	13	2	0	0			260,300	*
18	4	-	3	-	3	0.1		59.3		0	2	18	39	31	9	1	0			515,543
	5	-	0	-	5	0.1		60.8		0	2	18	40	30	8	1	0			104,573
	3	-	6	-	1	0.0		58.2		0	2	16	40	32	9	1	0			30,461
17	4	-	2	-	4	0.0		25.4		0	0	4	22	40	27	6	0	0		579,893
	3	-	5	-	2	0.0		22.6		0	0	3	19	40	29	7	0	0		138,177	*
16	4	-	1	-	5	No		5.5			0	0	5	25	41	24	5	0	0	349,030
	3	-	4	-	3	No		4.9			0	0	5	23	41	26	5	0	0	351,759	*
15	3	-	3	-	4	No		0.5				0	0	7	29	41	20	3	0	514,710
	4	-	0	-	6	No		0.5				0	0	7	30	41	18	2	0	87,079
	2	-	6	-	2	No		0.3				0	0	5	26	42	22	4	0	45,823	*
14	3	-	2	-	5	No		0.0					0	1	10	35	39	14	1	464,365
	2	-	5	-	3	No		0.0					0	1	8	32	41	16	1	138,739	*
13	2	-	4	-	4	No		0.0					0	0	2	15	41	35	7	257,591
	3	-	1	-	6	No		No						0	2	17	42	33	6	241,039	*
12	2	-	3	-	5	No		No						0	0	5	28	47	19	309,870
	3	-	0	-	7	No		No							0	6	30	47	17	49,926
	1	-	6	-	3	No		No							0	4	26	48	22	30,280	*
11	2	-	2	-	6	No		No							0	1	14	48	37	232,744
	1	-	5	-	4	No		No							0	1	12	47	41	69,717	*
10	1	-	4	-	5	No		No								0	4	36	60	106,000	*
	2	-	1	-	7	No		No							0	0	5	38	57	99,115
9	1	-	3	-	6	No		No								0	1	24	75	103,378
	2	-	0	-	8	No		No									1	24	75	26,037	*
8	1	-	2	-	7	No		No								0	0	13	86	79,931	*
7	1	-	1	-	8	No		No									0	7	93	24,948
	0	-	4	-	6	No		No									0	6	94	17,223
6	0	-	3	-	7	No		No									0	3	97	18,873	*
5	0	-	2	-	8	No		No										1	99	8,479
4	0	-	1	-	9	No		No										0	100	2,772
3	0	-	0	-	10	No		No											100	2,331

Total:						9.0	%	40.3	%	9	10	10	11	11	11	11	10	10	8	7,537,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

33	10	-	0	-	0	100
31	9	-	1	-	0	100	0
30	9	-	0	-	1	99	1
29	8	-	2	-	0	99	1
28	8	-	1	-	1	98	2
27	8	-	0	-	2	95	5	0
26	7	-	2	-	1	91	9	0
25	7	-	1	-	2	81	18	1	0
	6	-	4	-	0	84	16	0
24	6	-	3	-	1	71	27	2	0
	7	-	0	-	3	69	29	3	0
23	6	-	2	-	2	53	40	7	0	0
22	6	-	1	-	3	33	48	18	2	0	0
	5	-	4	-	1	34	48	16	2	0
21	5	-	3	-	2	17	45	31	6	0	0
	6	-	0	-	4	16	45	31	7	0	0
20	5	-	2	-	3	5	30	42	19	3	0	0
	4	-	5	-	1	5	29	42	20	3	0
19	5	-	1	-	4	1	12	36	36	13	2	0	0
	4	-	4	-	2	1	12	36	37	13	2	0	0
18	4	-	3	-	3	0	2	18	39	31	9	1	0
	5	-	0	-	5	0	2	18	40	30	8	1	0
	3	-	6	-	1	0	2	16	40	32	9	1	0
17	4	-	2	-	4	0	0	4	22	40	27	6	0	0
	3	-	5	-	2	0	0	3	19	40	29	7	0	0
16	4	-	1	-	5		0	0	5	25	41	24	5	0	0
	3	-	4	-	3		0	0	5	23	41	26	5	0	0
15	3	-	3	-	4			0	0	7	29	41	20	3	0
	4	-	0	-	6			0	0	7	30	41	18	2	0
	2	-	6	-	2			0	0	5	26	42	22	4	0
14	3	-	2	-	5				0	1	10	35	39	14	1
	2	-	5	-	3				0	1	8	32	41	16	1
13	2	-	4	-	4				0	0	2	15	41	35	7
	3	-	1	-	6					0	2	17	42	33	6
12	2	-	3	-	5					0	0	5	28	47	19
	3	-	0	-	7						0	6	30	47	17
	1	-	6	-	3						0	4	26	48	22
11	2	-	2	-	6						0	1	14	48	37
	1	-	5	-	4						0	1	12	47	41
10	1	-	4	-	5							0	4	36	60
	2	-	1	-	7						0	0	5	38	57
9	1	-	3	-	6							0	1	24	75
	2	-	0	-	8								1	24	75
8	1	-	2	-	7							0	0	13	86
7	1	-	1	-	8								0	7	93
	0	-	4	-	6								0	6	94
6	0	-	3	-	7								0	3	97
5	0	-	2	-	8									1	99
4	0	-	1	-	9									0	100
3	0	-	0	-	10										100

Total:						9	10	10	11	11	11	11	10	10	8