Aeros Title Chances Fall2014 50/50

Tied Valor FC 2-2, title odds down 2.6 to 12.3%

4 points 1-1-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Aeros finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance				Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	wins title		Top 4		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

32	-34						Yes		Yes		100										5,018	*
31		9	-	0	-	1	100.0	%	Yes		100	0									4,140
30		8	-	2	-	0	99.9		Yes		100	0									8,348
29		8	-	1	-	1	99.3		Yes		99	1									25,070
28		8	-	0	-	2	97.2		Yes		97	3	0								18,688
		7	-	3	-	0	98.7		Yes		99	1									14,744
27		7	-	2	-	1	95.4		Yes		95	5	0								66,784
26		7	-	1	-	2	89.7		Yes		90	10	0	0							98,849
		6	-	4	-	0	92.5		Yes		92	7	0								17,122
25		6	-	3	-	1	82.0		Yes		82	17	1	0							103,109
		7	-	0	-	3	78.5		Yes		78	21	1	0							50,160
24		6	-	2	-	2	68.1		Yes		68	29	3	0							246,199	*
23		6	-	1	-	3	48.9		100.0	%	49	42	8	0	0						231,572
		5	-	4	-	1	51.9		100.0		52	41	7	0	0						103,477
22		5	-	3	-	2	30.1		99.9		30	48	19	2	0	0					309,675
		6	-	0	-	4	29.3		99.9		29	48	20	2	0	0					94,700	*
21		5	-	2	-	3	13.9		99.3		14	43	34	9	1	0					462,254
		4	-	5	-	1	15.9		99.6		16	45	32	7	0	0					68,322
20		5	-	1	-	4	4.1		95.6		4	26	42	23	4	0	0				348,240
		4	-	4	-	2	4.0		95.9		4	26	43	23	4	0	0				260,064	*
19		4	-	3	-	3	0.6		80.9		1	9	32	39	17	2	0	0			515,577
		5	-	0	-	5	0.6		81.2		1	9	33	39	16	2	0				104,950
		3	-	6	-	1	0.9		86.1		1	11	37	37	13	1	0				30,648
18		4	-	2	-	4	0.0		52.0		0	2	14	37	35	12	1	0			580,341
		3	-	5	-	2	0.0		52.9		0	1	14	38	35	11	1	0			137,703	*
17		4	-	1	-	5	No		19.9			0	3	17	39	31	9	1	0		349,122
		3	-	4	-	3	No		17.9			0	2	16	39	33	9	1	0		352,204	*
16		3	-	3	-	4	No		3.3			0	0	3	19	40	30	7	0	0	516,504
		4	-	0	-	6	No		4.1			0	0	4	21	40	27	6	0	0	87,538
		2	-	6	-	2	No		3.3			0	0	3	21	42	28	6	0		46,189	*
15		3	-	2	-	5	No		0.3				0	0	5	25	41	24	4	0	463,710
		2	-	5	-	3	No		0.2					0	4	24	42	25	4	0	138,764	*
14		2	-	4	-	4	No		0.0					0	0	7	29	42	19	2	257,004
		3	-	1	-	6	No		0.0					0	1	8	32	41	17	2	240,989	*
13		2	-	3	-	5	No		No						0	1	13	39	38	9	308,492
		3	-	0	-	7	No		No						0	2	15	40	35	8	49,838
		1	-	6	-	3	No		No						0	1	13	40	37	8	30,439	*
12		2	-	2	-	6	No		No						0	0	4	25	48	22	231,932
		1	-	5	-	4	No		No							0	3	24	49	24	70,136	*
11		1	-	4	-	5	No		No							0	1	10	45	44	102,532
		2	-	1	-	7	No		No							0	1	12	46	41	102,612	*
10		1	-	3	-	6	No		No							0	0	3	34	63	103,811
		2	-	0	-	8	No		No								0	4	36	60	25,984	*
9		1	-	2	-	7	No		No								0	1	21	78	79,988	*
8		1	-	1	-	8	No		No									0	12	88	24,844
		0	-	4	-	6	No		No									0	10	90	17,135
7		0	-	3	-	7	No		No									0	5	95	18,552	*
6		0	-	2	-	8	No		No										2	98	8,369
5		0	-	1	-	9	No		No										1	99	2,783
4		0	-	0	-	10	No		No											100	2,275

Total:							12.3	%	47.3	%	12	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	8	5	7,537,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

32	-34						100
31		9	-	0	-	1	100	0
30		8	-	2	-	0	100	0
29		8	-	1	-	1	99	1
28		8	-	0	-	2	97	3	0
		7	-	3	-	0	99	1
27		7	-	2	-	1	95	5	0
26		7	-	1	-	2	90	10	0	0
		6	-	4	-	0	92	7	0
25		6	-	3	-	1	82	17	1	0
		7	-	0	-	3	78	21	1	0
24		6	-	2	-	2	68	29	3	0
23		6	-	1	-	3	49	42	8	0	0
		5	-	4	-	1	52	41	7	0	0
22		5	-	3	-	2	30	48	19	2	0	0
		6	-	0	-	4	29	48	20	2	0	0
21		5	-	2	-	3	14	43	34	9	1	0
		4	-	5	-	1	16	45	32	7	0	0
20		5	-	1	-	4	4	26	42	23	4	0	0
		4	-	4	-	2	4	26	43	23	4	0	0
19		4	-	3	-	3	1	9	32	39	17	2	0	0
		5	-	0	-	5	1	9	33	39	16	2	0
		3	-	6	-	1	1	11	37	37	13	1	0
18		4	-	2	-	4	0	2	14	37	35	12	1	0
		3	-	5	-	2	0	1	14	38	35	11	1	0
17		4	-	1	-	5		0	3	17	39	31	9	1	0
		3	-	4	-	3		0	2	16	39	33	9	1	0
16		3	-	3	-	4		0	0	3	19	40	30	7	0	0
		4	-	0	-	6		0	0	4	21	40	27	6	0	0
		2	-	6	-	2		0	0	3	21	42	28	6	0
15		3	-	2	-	5			0	0	5	25	41	24	4	0
		2	-	5	-	3				0	4	24	42	25	4	0
14		2	-	4	-	4				0	0	7	29	42	19	2
		3	-	1	-	6				0	1	8	32	41	17	2
13		2	-	3	-	5					0	1	13	39	38	9
		3	-	0	-	7					0	2	15	40	35	8
		1	-	6	-	3					0	1	13	40	37	8
12		2	-	2	-	6					0	0	4	25	48	22
		1	-	5	-	4						0	3	24	49	24
11		1	-	4	-	5						0	1	10	45	44
		2	-	1	-	7						0	1	12	46	41
10		1	-	3	-	6						0	0	3	34	63
		2	-	0	-	8							0	4	36	60
9		1	-	2	-	7							0	1	21	78
8		1	-	1	-	8								0	12	88
		0	-	4	-	6								0	10	90
7		0	-	3	-	7								0	5	95
6		0	-	2	-	8									2	98
5		0	-	1	-	9									1	99
4		0	-	0	-	10										100

Total:							12	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	8	5