New England Patriots Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays Buffalo, playoff odds down 0.09 to 37.5%

0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17							+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
New England vs Buffalo	+7.9*-0.7-7.9		+1.3*-0.4-1.3		-1.3*-0.3+1.3		+0.9*-0.1-0.9
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.9*+0.0+0.9						-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs Cleveland	-0.5*-0.7+0.5

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
New England vs NY Jets	+8.1*-1.0-8.0		+1.3*-0.3-1.3		-1.4*-0.1+1.4		+0.9*-0.1-0.9
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.8*-1.6+0.8						-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Miami vs Indianapolis	-0.6*+0.7+0.5						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.4*+1.0+0.4						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.3*+0.3+0.3						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.3*-1.4+0.3						-0.0*-0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the New England finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		98.3	%	100																No		60	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		85.4		99				1												No		137
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		84.6		100																No		13
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.9	%	72.4		98	1			1	0	0										No		1,010
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		60.7		94	3			3	1											No		112
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.7		51.3		90	6	0		3	1	0	0									No		4,777
		12	-	2	-	2	In		80.0		80	20															No		5
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.6		42.4		85	9	0		4	2	0			0							No		523
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.1		30.7		69	18	1	0	7	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		15,797
		11	-	3	-	2	In		34.8		61	26	4		9												No		23
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	96.9		22.2		55	25	4	0	8	4	1	1	0	0	0				0		No		1,493	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	92.1		13.7		35	30	8	1	12	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		37,522
		10	-	4	-	2	95.9		10.8		39	35			9	12	4										No		74
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	86.4		8.0		19	32	13	2	13	8	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0			No		3,348
		9	-	4	-	3	In		33.3		33	33			33												No		3
10		10	-	6	-	0	77.7		4.7		9	22	18	5	14	10	8	5	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	69,119
		9	-	5	-	2	79.7		4.4		9	20	20	4	11	16	6	3	3	3	1	3	1		1		No		158
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	67.1		2.0		3	13	18	8	13	12	10	7	6	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		5,525
		8	-	5	-	3	60.0		No			40	20						20			20					No		5
9		9	-	7	-	0	54.6		1.2		1	6	14	11	11	11	11	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	0	0	0.0		98,973
		8	-	6	-	2	60.1		1.1		3	5	14	9	14	15	9	11	8	3	5	2	1	2	1		No		188
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	43.1		0.2		0	2	9	13	9	11	10	10	9	8	7	5	4	2	1	0	0.0		7,083
		7	-	6	-	3	Out		No								50		25		25						No		4
8		8	-	8	-	0	30.3		0.2		0	0	4	11	6	8	10	10	10	10	9	7	6	4	2	1	0.2		110,541
		7	-	7	-	2	24.5		No				4	13	5	4	12	12	10	11	10	9	7	3	1	2	0.5		200
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	19.4		0.0			0	1	8	4	6	8	10	10	10	11	10	9	6	4	2	0.5		7,180
		6	-	7	-	3	11.1		No							11	22	11					33	22			No		9
7		7	-	9	-	0	12.4		0.0			0	1	6	2	4	6	7	9	10	11	11	11	10	8	4	1.1		98,396
		6	-	8	-	2	7.1		No					5	1	1	5	8	8	10	12	17	11	9	7	5	0.9		212
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	5.8		No				0	3	1	2	4	5	7	10	11	12	14	14	11	6	2.0		5,562
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No										50			50					No		2
6		6	-	10	-	0	3.7		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	14	15	16	12	4.6		69,386
		5	-	9	-	2	2.0		No						1	1	2	4	4	11	7	14	13	21	11	12	4.6		152
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.2		No					1	0	0	1	2	3	4	8	10	13	18	21	18	8.3		3,376
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No											50						50	50.0		2
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.8		No					1	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	24	28	13.9		37,841
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No										1	3	9	9	7	20	35	16	10.1		69
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.3		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	2	5	9	17	26	38	21.2		1,499	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.2		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	13	26	49	30.7		15,826
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No												4	4		25	17	50	33.3		24
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No											0	1	1	4	10	23	62	41.1		513
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No								0	0	0	0	0	1	2	7	19	70	53.7		4,875
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No															25		75	75.0		4
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No													1	1	4	14	81	63.2		133
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No												0	0		2	11	86	73.2		989
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No																	100	Yes		2
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No														5	5		90	90.0		20
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No																3	97	89.8		128
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No																2	98	98.0		51

Total:							37.5	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.2	%	602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs Buffalo	-1.8*+0.2+1.8

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs NY Jets	-1.9*+0.2+1.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	98	2
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	100
15		15	-	1	-	0	85	9	4	1
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	85	8	8
14		14	-	2	-	0	72	17	5	2	1	0	0	0		0			0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	61	23	12	3	1						1
13		13	-	3	-	0	51	23	12	6	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		0
		12	-	2	-	2	80	20
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	42	23	15	7	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	1		0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	31	22	15	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	35	22	13	4	22		4
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	22	18	15	11	8	8	5	4	2	2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0		0	0		0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	13	11	10	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	11	18	8	18	9	3	12	5	4	4	4	1	1	1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	11	11	11	10	9	7	6	5	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	33								33		33
10		10	-	6	-	0	5	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	4	5	3	8	11	10	11	6	4	8	4	3	4	3	4	3	2	1		4	2			1				1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	4	6	6	7	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	4	5	4	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3			20	20					20							20										20
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	1	4	4	3	6	7	4	6	8	7	6	7	5	4	4	4	3	5	2	2	1	2	1	2	1			1	1
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	5	4	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3												25		25	25					25
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2			1	2	1	2	1	2	4	6	6	5	5	6	7	5	5	6	7	4	5	5	5	3	4	1	4	2	1	1		1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	3	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3												22				22						11	11			11		22
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2							0	1	0	1	0	0	4	2	3	3	7	5	4	5	8	8	8	8	5	6	6	4	4	4	2	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1				0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	8	7	7	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3																		50									50
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	5
		5	-	9	-	2							1			1		1	1	2	1	1	3	3	3	1	5	5	7	6	10	9	8	11	7	7	5	5
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	2	4	5	5	6	8	8	10	11	11	10	8
		4	-	9	-	3																								50								50
5		5	-	11	-	0				0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	13	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2																			3	3	3	4	4	1	4	4	1	13	20	13	14	10
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1												0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	5	6	10	11	14	20	21
4		4	-	12	-	0										0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	10	14	22	31
		3	-	11	-	2																					4				8			4	13	25	13	33
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																					0	0	0	0	1	3	3	5	9	12	25	41
3		3	-	13	-	0																0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	6	11	22	54
		2	-	12	-	2																														25		75
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																											2	2	3	8	22	63
2		2	-	14	-	0																								0	0	0	0	1	1	7	17	73
		1	-	13	-	2																																100
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																												5		5		90
1		1	-	15	-	0																													2		9	90
0		0	-	16	-	0																															2	98

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3