Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays Jacksonville, playoff odds down 0.1 to 37.7%

0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Denver 7 Baltimore 21	+0.5
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.4
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	+7.5*-1.5-7.5		+1.3*-0.3-1.3		-1.3*-0.3+1.4		+0.9*-0.0-0.9
Indianapolis vs Oakland	+0.4*+1.1-0.4
Houston vs San Diego	+0.4*+0.5-0.4						+0.0*+0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.3*-0.1+0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Kansas City vs Dallas	+7.0*+1.0-7.0		+1.3*-0.3-1.3		-1.4*-0.7+1.4		+0.8*+0.1-0.8
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.9*+2.0+0.9						-0.1*+0.2+0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.9*-0.4+0.9						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Oakland vs Jacksonville	-0.6*+0.8+0.6						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.5*-0.0+0.5						-0.1*-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Kansas City finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		98.2	%	100																No		55	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		87.4		99				1												No		159
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		90.5		100																No		21
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		76.7		98	1			1												No		1,029
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	99.0	%	61.0		95	2				2	1										No		105
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.8		52.9		90	6	0		3	1	0	0									No		4,765
		12	-	2	-	2	In		71.4		100																No		7
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.1		41.4		87	8			3	1	1	0	0								No		532
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.3		31.0		69	18	2	0	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0					No		15,545
		11	-	3	-	2	91.7		41.7		63	17			13		4		4								No		24
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	96.6		21.9		54	25	4	0	10	4	2	1	1	0	0	0					No		1,568
		10	-	3	-	3	In		No		50	50															No		2
11		11	-	5	-	0	92.2		14.0		35	30	9	1	11	7	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		37,553
		10	-	4	-	2	96.6		6.9		34	33	5		16	9	2				2						No		58
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	87.8		8.1		20	31	14	2	12	8	5	3	2	1	0	0	0		0		No		3,278
10		10	-	6	-	0	77.9		4.8		8	22	18	5	13	10	7	5	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	No		68,920
		9	-	5	-	2	83.5		1.7		10	25	20		13	15	7	3	4	1	2						No		115
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	67.5		2.6		3	13	19	8	13	11	10	7	6	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	No		5,708
		8	-	5	-	3	Out		No								100										No		1
9		9	-	7	-	0	55.1		1.1		1	6	15	12	11	11	10	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0.0	%	98,899
		8	-	6	-	2	58.8		1.0			8	16	10	12	14	16	8	5	4	4	5		1	1		No		199
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	42.8		0.3		0	1	9	13	9	11	11	10	9	8	7	5	4	2	1	0	0.0		7,025
		7	-	6	-	3	18.2		No					9	9		9		18	18	18	9	9				No		11
8		8	-	8	-	0	30.5		0.2		0	0	4	12	6	8	10	10	10	10	9	8	6	4	2	1	0.2		111,080
		7	-	7	-	2	26.3		No			0	2	11	6	7	11	10	14	10	10	8	4	5	2		No		217
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	19.4		0.1			0	1	9	3	6	8	9	10	11	11	10	8	7	4	2	0.3		7,188
		6	-	7	-	3	30.0		No					10		20	10	10	10	10		10		10	10		No		10
7		7	-	9	-	0	12.4		0.0			0	0	6	2	4	5	7	9	10	11	12	11	10	8	4	1.2		98,806
		6	-	8	-	2	10.8		No			1		4	3	3	6	6	9	13	13	10	15	8	9	2	0.5		186
		5	-	7	-	4	In		No							100											No		1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	6.8		0.0				0	3	1	2	3	5	7	9	10	12	13	14	12	8	2.4		5,511
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No												33		33	33			No		3
6		6	-	10	-	0	3.7		No				0	2	1	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	14	16	16	12	4.6		69,111
		5	-	9	-	2	2.9		No					3				4	6	7	14	14	11	16	16	9	2.1		140
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.9		No					1	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	10	14	18	20	18	7.6		3,250
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No													50			50		No		2
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.7		No					0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	24	28	13.9		37,879
		4	-	10	-	2	1.4		No					1				3	1	3	7	4	12	19	25	25	5.8		69
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.1		No					0			0	0	1	2	2	5	8	14	30	37	20.0		1,465
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0		0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	13	25	48	30.7		15,686
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No															20	36	44	24.0		25
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No											1	1	1	5	8	23	62	40.0		493
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.0		No					0					0	0	0	1	2	6	20	70	53.9		4,870
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No															25	25	50	50.0		4
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No														2	6	20	73	60.2		123
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No													0	1	3	11	86	75.0		1,017
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No																	100	Yes		1
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No													4			4	92	84.0		25
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No															1	1	98	91.3		149
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No																	100	Yes		54

Total:							37.7	%	3.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.2	%	602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	-1.8+0.1+1.8

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kansas City vs Dallas	-1.8*-0.1+1.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	100
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1		100
15		15	-	1	-	0	87	8	4	1
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	90	10
14		14	-	2	-	0	77	14	5	2	1	0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	61	21	9	5	1	1		2				1
13		13	-	3	-	0	53	22	11	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				0
		12	-	2	-	2	71	14	14
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	41	27	12	9	4	3	2	1	1			0					0
12		12	-	4	-	0	31	21	15	10	7	5	4	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0		0
		11	-	3	-	2	42	17	8	4	4	8	4		4					4			4
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	22	19	15	12	8	6	5	3	3	2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0		0	0
		10	-	3	-	3		50		50
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	13	11	10	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	7	10	9	14	12	17	7	7	2	5	3		2	3								2
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	10	12	12	11	8	7	7	5	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10		10	-	6	-	0	5	7	8	9	8	8	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	2	7	6	13	8	3	12	8	5	9	8	3	4	3	4	2	1	1	1		1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	3	4	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	5	4	4	2	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	2	3	4	4	6	9	5	4	10	8	7	7	2	6	4	3	4	4	1	3	3	1	2	1			1
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	1	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	5	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3							9			9						9		9	18	9	9	18		9
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2			0		1	2	1	3	3	3	6	4	5	5	6	7	5	10	5	5	4	5	5	4	3	2	2	2	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	5	6	5	6	6	5	5	5	4	3	2	2	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3				10					20				10	10			10		10			10		10				10
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2				1	1	1		2	2	3	1	1	3	2	3	2	5	4	5	10	3	10	6	6	3	8	7	3	5	3	1	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	6	7	7	7	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3																					33					33		33
6		6	-	10	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	7	5
		5	-	9	-	2								1		1				1	1	4	1	2	3	4	7	5	7	5	11	9	4	9	10	5	9	2
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1								0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	6	8	8	10	11	11	10	8
		4	-	9	-	3																								50						50
5		5	-	11	-	0						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	10	11	13	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2															3		1	1		3	6	1			7	9	9	6	16	12	20	6
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1														0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	5	6	9	12	16	20	20
4		4	-	12	-	0								0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	10	15	21	31
		3	-	11	-	2																									4			16	8	24	24	24
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																				0	0		1	2	1	2	4	4	5	13	28	40
3		3	-	13	-	0																			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	11	23	54
		2	-	12	-	2																														25	25	50
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																									2		2	2	1	11	24	60
2		2	-	14	-	0																								0	0	0	0	1	2	5	16	75
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																										4					12	84
1		1	-	15	-	0																														1	7	91
0		0	-	16	-	0																																100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3