Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays at New England, playoff odds up 0.08 to 37.7%

0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.4						+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
New England vs Buffalo	-7.9*-0.9+7.9		-1.3*-0.4+1.3		+1.3*-0.2-1.3		-0.9*-0.1+0.9
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.9*+0.5+0.9						-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Miami vs Cleveland	-0.6*+0.3+0.6

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Buffalo vs Carolina	+7.1*+0.2-7.1		+1.3*-0.0-1.3		-1.4*-0.9+1.4		+0.8*+0.1-0.8
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.5*-0.0+0.5						-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.4*-1.5+0.4						-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Miami vs Indianapolis	-0.4*+0.2+0.4						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.3*-0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		98.2	%	100																No		57	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		84.0		99	1															No		144
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		93.8		100																No		16
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.9	%	71.5		98	1			1			0									No		994
		13	-	1	-	2	In		Yes		100																No		2
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		61.7		93	1			6												No		120
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.7		52.8		91	5	0		3	1	0	0	0								No		4,816
		12	-	2	-	2	In		77.8		100																No		9
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	98.6		41.3		84	9	0		4	1	1	1			0						No		518
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.3		31.0		69	18	1	0	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		15,686
		11	-	3	-	2	In		38.1		62	14			19	5											No		21
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	96.4		22.2		56	24	2		10	5	2	1	1	0	0						No		1,488
11		11	-	5	-	0	92.0		13.8		35	30	8	1	12	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		37,594
		10	-	4	-	2	90.5		4.8		30	27	14		14	5	5	2		2	2						No		63
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	86.2		7.7		19	29	13	2	14	9	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		No		3,426
		9	-	4	-	3	In		No		50		50														No		2
10		10	-	6	-	0	77.9		4.6		9	22	18	5	14	10	7	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	No		69,400
		9	-	5	-	2	84.1		5.1		10	27	15	4	13	15	6	4	3	1	1	1					No		138
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	67.6		2.2		3	13	20	8	12	11	10	7	5	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	No		5,609
		8	-	5	-	3	50.0		No						50			50									No		2
9		9	-	7	-	0	54.9		1.1		1	6	14	11	11	11	10	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	0	0	0.0	%	98,950
		8	-	6	-	2	57.7		1.0		1	7	13	11	13	12	12	11	6	5	3	2	3	1			No		196
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.7		0.4		0	2	9	13	8	10	11	11	9	8	7	6	3	2	1	0	0.0		7,119
		7	-	6	-	3	33.3		No							33	17	17	17			17					No		6
8		8	-	8	-	0	30.2		0.2		0	1	4	11	6	8	10	10	10	10	9	8	6	4	2	1	0.2		111,184
		7	-	7	-	2	33.2		0.8				7	10	7	10	9	9	10	12	8	7	5	3	2	1	No		241
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	19.4		0.1			0	2	8	4	6	8	9	10	11	10	10	8	7	4	2	0.3		7,081
		6	-	7	-	3	33.3		No					33						33						33	No		3
7		7	-	9	-	0	12.6		0.0			0	1	6	2	4	6	7	9	10	11	12	11	10	8	4	1.0		98,451
		6	-	8	-	2	10.3		No					5	1	3	6	8	9	7	15	10	11	11	8	4	1.5		203
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	6.7		0.0				0	3	1	2	4	5	7	9	11	12	13	13	11	7	2.4		5,523
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No									33			33		33				No		3
6		6	-	10	-	0	3.7		No			0	0	2	1	1	2	4	5	7	9	12	14	16	16	12	4.6		68,523
		5	-	9	-	2	4.0		No					2	1	1	4	4	5	6	10	10	13	14	21	10	4.0		126
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.5		No					1	0	0	1	2	3	4	7	10	14	18	21	18	8.4		3,333
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No														50			50	No		2
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.8		No					0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	23	27	13.9		37,755
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No										4	2	5	9	11	18	27	24	12.7		55
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	1	2	3	7	11	15	24	37	19.0		1,544
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	13	26	49	31.0		15,874
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No															4	29	67	33.3		24
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	0.2		No					0					1	0	0	2	4	9	21	62	42.3		494
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No										0	0	0	1	3	6	21	69	52.3		4,827
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																33	67	66.7		3
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No														3	2	9	86	66.4		116
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No														1	2	12	84	74.7		980
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No															5	14	82	72.7		22
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No															1	8	91	85.3		143
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	98.3		58	*

Total:							37.7	%	3.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.2	%	602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs Buffalo	+1.8+0.3-1.8

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Buffalo vs Carolina	-1.8-0.1+1.9

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	98	2
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	100
15		15	-	1	-	0	84	13	3	1
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	94	6
14		14	-	2	-	0	72	18	5	2	1	1	0	0		0		0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	62	16	14	3	1	3	1		1
13		13	-	3	-	0	53	23	11	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	78	11	11
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	41	23	12	8	5	3	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0					0
12		12	-	4	-	0	31	22	15	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	38	14	19	10	5	5	5		5
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	22	19	13	10	7	9	4	4	3	1	2	1	1	0	0	1	0			0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	13	12	9	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	5	8	24	17	10	11	2	5	5	2	5	2		2		2	2						2
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	10	11	10	10	8	7	7	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10		10	-	6	-	0	5	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	5	9	10	6	4	7	12	7	9	3	5	7	4	2	3	3		1		1	1			1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	4	5	6	7	8	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	2	2	3	4	7	8	8	7	6	7	4	9	5	3	5	5	2	5	2	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	1
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3							17					17			17	17	17	17
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2	1	0	2	1	1	3	2	3	2	3	5	5	5	5	7	5	5	4	5	5	7	3	5	2	5	1	1	1	2	1	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	2	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	5	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	2	2	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3					33													33												33
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2				0	0		1	1	2		1	3	2	3	4	2	4	5	5	5	6	7	5	4	7	7	9	3	3	3	2	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3																	33						33		33
6		6	-	10	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	9	8	7	5
		5	-	9	-	2											1		2	1	4	1	1	4	5	6	4	3	9	6	8	5	9	6	10	6	9	4
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1						0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	3	5	5	6	7	9	10	10	12	10	8
5		5	-	11	-	0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	10	11	13	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2																	2		2	2		4		5	9	4	13	9	15	11	13	13
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1											0			0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	3	4	4	5	7	9	10	16	19	19
4		4	-	12	-	0							0					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	10	14	22	31
		3	-	11	-	2																											8		8	13	38	33
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																			0		0		0	1	2	2	3	4	7	13	25	42
3		3	-	13	-	0																			0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	6	11	23	52
		2	-	12	-	2																													33			67
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																									1			2	3	6	22	66
2		2	-	14	-	0																				0					0	0	1	0	2	6	17	75
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																													5		23	73
1		1	-	15	-	0																												1	1	1	12	85
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																																100
0		0	-	16	-	0																															2	98

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3