San Diego Chargers Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 37.8%

0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Denver 7 Baltimore 21	+0.5
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Houston vs San Diego	-7.3*-0.3+7.3		-1.3*-0.2+1.3		+1.4*-0.3-1.4		-0.9*-0.0+0.9
Indianapolis vs Oakland	+0.5*+0.1-0.5
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.5*+1.0+0.5						-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	-0.4*-1.3+0.4						-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+7.0*-0.9-7.0		+1.3*-0.4-1.3		-1.4*-0.7+1.4		+0.8*-0.1-0.8
Denver vs NY Giants	-1.0*-0.7+1.0						-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.8*-1.6+0.8						-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Oakland vs Jacksonville	-0.5*-1.1+0.5						-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.4*-1.6+0.4						-0.1*-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Diego finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		98.4	%	100																No		62	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		89.4		99				1												No		132
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		76.5		100																No		17
14		14	-	2	-	0	99.9	%	73.0		98	1			1	0	0										No		1,028
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	99.2		69.0		94	2			2	1	1										No		126
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.8		53.6		90	6	0		3	1	0	0	0	0							No		5,034
		12	-	2	-	2	In		33.3		100																No		3
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.0		41.5		83	11	0		3	2	1	0									No		520
12		12	-	4	-	0	97.9		30.6		69	18	2	0	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0					No		15,894
		11	-	3	-	2	96.4		10.7		39	32	7		14	4		4									No		28
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	96.9		20.3		55	25	3	0	9	4	2	1	1	0	0						No		1,552
11		11	-	5	-	0	92.4		14.0		35	30	9	1	12	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		37,258
		10	-	4	-	2	91.4		19.8		41	26	6	1	14	4		5	2	1							No		81
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	87.6		8.3		19	31	13	2	14	9	5	3	2	1	1	0	0		0		No		3,272
10		10	-	6	-	0	78.0		4.6		8	22	19	5	13	10	7	5	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	69,181
		9	-	5	-	2	82.5		4.2		6	22	23	6	13	13	8	3	6		1						No		143
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	66.5		2.1		3	13	19	8	12	12	10	7	7	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	No		5,523
		8	-	5	-	3	60.0		No			20	20			20		20						20			No		5
9		9	-	7	-	0	54.8		1.1		1	6	15	12	11	11	10	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0.0		98,917
		8	-	6	-	2	52.1		No			3	15	12	10	12	15	9	10	6	5	2		1	1		No		188
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	42.7		0.4		0	2	9	14	8	10	10	10	10	8	6	5	4	2	1	0	0.1		7,106
		7	-	6	-	3	33.3		No						33			17	50								No		6
8		8	-	8	-	0	30.6		0.2		0	1	4	12	6	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	6	4	2	1	0.2		111,179
		7	-	7	-	2	27.6		0.5			0	5	11	4	7	9	10	14	13	9	6	5	4	2	0	No		221
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	20.6		0.0			0	1	10	4	6	8	9	10	11	10	10	9	6	4	2	0.3		7,067
		6	-	7	-	3	Out		No									50	50								No		2
7		7	-	9	-	0	12.6		0.0			0	0	6	2	4	6	7	9	10	11	12	11	10	7	4	1.1		98,803
		6	-	8	-	2	12.7		No				0	7	2	2	6	10	6	11	12	10	12	10	7	2	1.0		205
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	7.6		0.0				0	4	1	3	4	5	7	9	11	12	13	13	11	7	2.1		5,430
		5	-	8	-	3	50.0		No						50								50				No		2
6		6	-	10	-	0	3.7		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	14	16	16	12	4.7		68,757
		5	-	9	-	2	4.3		No					3	1	1	1	2	4	8	7	14	19	14	14	13	3.6		139
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.6		No					1	0	0	1	1	3	4	7	11	14	18	20	19	8.3		3,284
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No													100					No		1
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.8		No				0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	23	27	13.9		37,709
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No								1	3		3	3	11	11	14	35	18	12.7		71
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.3		No					0				0	1	1	3	6	9	16	26	37	20.4		1,556
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6	13	25	49	31.2		15,849
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No												4		4	22	9	61	30.4		23
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No										0	0	1	2	6	11	23	57	38.7		457
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No									0	0	0	0	1	2	7	20	69	54.2		4,740
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No															14	29	57	57.1		7
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No														3	5	19	74	62.0		108
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No													0	1	2	12	85	73.8		1,064
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																36	64	64.3		14
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No														1			99	91.3		127
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No																	100	Yes		53

Total:							37.8	%	3.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.2	%	602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Houston vs San Diego	+1.8*+0.0-1.8

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-1.8+0.2+1.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	98	2
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	100
15		15	-	1	-	0	89	8	3
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	76	18	6
14		14	-	2	-	0	73	18	6	1	1	0	0		0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	69	15	7	4	1	2	1	1	1
13		13	-	3	-	0	54	22	11	6	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0							0
		12	-	2	-	2	33		33	33
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	42	23	16	8	4	3	2	2	1	0	1	0			0
12		12	-	4	-	0	31	22	15	10	7	5	3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	11	25	18	14	7	11	4		4	4						4
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	20	19	15	12	10	6	4	3	4	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	13	11	10	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	20	15	17	9	4	14	6	5	1	1		1		4	1	1			1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	10	11	10	10	9	8	6	5	5	4	4	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0						0
10		10	-	6	-	0	5	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	4	8	12	5	6	5	12	12	7	4	3	5	3	3	1	3	1	3	1		1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	3	5	6	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	4	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3								20			20			20	20													20
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2		1	3	3	6	4	5	5	7	6	6	8	7	7	6	4	4	3	3	2	4	1	2	2	1	1	1
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	2	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	5	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3									17				17				17		33	17
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2	0	0		1	3	2	3	4	3	5	5	1	5	3	4	6	8	7	5	7	6	5	2	3	5	2	0	2	2		0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	6	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3																	50			50
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2					1	0	2	0	2	1	2	3	2	3	3	4	8	2	5	1	7	7	3	5	9	6	7	3	4	3	1	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	6	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3											50														50
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	7	5
		5	-	9	-	2							1					1	1	2	1	1	2	3	4	2	1	5	6	9	9	9	7	7	7	9	9	4
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	6	6	8	9	9	11	10	10	8
		4	-	9	-	3																					100
5		5	-	11	-	0			0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	13	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2																1	3	1			3	3	4	4	6	10	7	10	7	14	14	13
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1								0					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	3	5	6	8	13	16	18	20
4		4	-	12	-	0							0					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	10	15	22	31
		3	-	11	-	2																									9	9			13	13	26	30
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																				0	0	0	0	1	3	2	2	6	8	14	23	39
3		3	-	13	-	0													0		0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	11	21	54
		2	-	12	-	2																									14					14	14	57
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																								2			1	1	4	10	20	62
2		2	-	14	-	0																			0				0		0	0	0	1	2	6	17	74
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																													7	7	21	64
1		1	-	15	-	0																													1	2	6	91
0		0	-	16	-	0																																100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3