Arizona Cardinals Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays at St. Louis, playoff odds up 0.08 to 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	-0.5						-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
St. Louis vs Arizona	-8.0*+0.4+8.0		-1.3*-0.4+1.3		+1.3*-0.4-1.3		-0.9*+0.0+0.9
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.6*-0.0+0.6
Seattle vs Carolina	-0.5*-0.9+0.5						-0.0*-0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.3*+1.1-0.3						+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Philadelphia vs Washington	-0.3*-2.6+0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Arizona vs Detroit	+7.5*+1.2-7.5		+1.3*-0.2-1.3		-1.4*-0.8+1.4		+0.9*+0.2-0.9
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.5*-0.4-0.5						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs St. Louis	+0.5*+0.7-0.5
Kansas City vs Dallas	+0.4*+1.3-0.4						+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.4*-1.8-0.3						+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Buffalo vs Carolina	+0.3*+0.5-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Arizona finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

14.5	-16						In		91.2	%	100																No		182	*
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		74.0		97	1			1	0											No		1,021
		13	-	1	-	2	In		Yes		100																No		1
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		57.6		96	3			1												No		139
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.5	%	51.8		90	6	0		3	1	0	0	0								No		4,749
		12	-	2	-	2	In		33.3		100																No		6
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.0		40.7		83	10			5	1	0	0	0								No		513
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.3		30.9		68	19	2	0	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				No		15,924
		11	-	3	-	2	In		35.7		71	21			7												No		14
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	96.6		22.5		53	25	3	0	10	5	2	1	0	0		0					No		1,529
11		11	-	5	-	0	92.0		13.8		32	31	9	1	12	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		38,076
		10	-	4	-	2	94.6		10.7		30	34	7		14	9	4	2									No		56
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	86.7		8.1		18	31	13	2	14	8	6	4	2	1	1	0	0				No		3,321
		9	-	4	-	3	In		No		50					50											No		2
10		10	-	6	-	0	77.6		4.6		8	21	19	6	14	10	8	5	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	No		69,409
		9	-	5	-	2	83.1		3.4		14	24	16	4	15	10	9	3	2	3	1						No		118
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	67.9		2.3		2	12	20	9	13	12	9	7	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	No		5,456
		8	-	5	-	3	In		No							100											No		1
9		9	-	7	-	0	54.6		1.1		1	5	14	12	11	11	11	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0.0	%	98,197
		8	-	6	-	2	62.2		0.5		0	6	18	12	14	12	13	11	3	5	2	2	1	1			No		217
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	42.5		0.3		0	2	8	14	9	10	10	11	9	9	7	5	4	2	1	0	0.0		7,023
		7	-	6	-	3	20.0		No						20		20	20			20				20		No		5
8		8	-	8	-	0	30.0		0.2		0	0	4	11	6	8	10	10	10	10	9	7	6	4	2	1	0.2		110,886
		7	-	7	-	2	30.6		No				4	13	6	8	12	10	10	10	9	6	7	2	2	1	0.4		252
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	20.1		0.1			0	1	9	4	6	8	9	11	10	11	10	9	7	4	2	0.4		7,162
		6	-	7	-	3	Out		No									20	40				40				No		5
7		7	-	9	-	0	12.3		0.0			0	0	6	2	4	6	7	9	10	11	12	11	10	7	4	1.0		98,367
		6	-	8	-	2	8.3		No				1	3	1	3	7	7	10	11	12	16	11	10	7	2	0.9		218
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	6.6		No				0	3	1	2	4	5	8	9	10	12	13	14	11	7	2.2		5,543
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No									33				33		33			No		3
6		6	-	10	-	0	3.6		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	14	16	16	12	4.7		69,394
		5	-	9	-	2	3.1		No					2		1	3	4	7	4	11	12	15	18	10	13	3.8		131
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.6		No					1	0	1	1	2	3	6	7	10	14	17	21	18	7.5		3,322
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.8		No				0	1	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	24	28	14.1		37,694
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No										6		4	6	9	17	32	26	13.2		53
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	0	2	3	5	9	16	28	36	21.9		1,518
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0		0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	13	25	48	30.6		15,733
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No											4		4	4	8	33	46	29.2		24
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No											0	1	2	5	11	24	56	38.3		496
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No									0	0	0	0	1	2	6	21	69	52.5		4,832
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																33	67	55.6		9
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No															3	17	80	65.8		111
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No													0	1	1	12	86	75.1		1,025
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																36	64	57.1		14
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No														1	2	4	94	90.8		131
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	Yes		62	*

Total:							37.5	%	3.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.2	%	602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
St. Louis vs Arizona	+1.9*+0.0-1.8

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Arizona vs Detroit	-1.8-0.4+1.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	88	10	1	1
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	82	18
14		14	-	2	-	0	74	17	5	2	1	1	0				0
		13	-	1	-	2	100
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	58	24	6	9	3			1
13		13	-	3	-	0	52	23	12	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		0	0		0
		12	-	2	-	2	33	50	17
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	41	26	12	8	4	3	3	1	0		0	0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	31	22	15	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
		11	-	3	-	2	36	43	7			7		7
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	22	17	16	12	9	6	5	3	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	13	11	10	7	7	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	11	13	18	11	9	4	7	7	11	2	4	2	2		2
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	11	11	10	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3										100
10		10	-	6	-	0	5	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	3	4	13	11	8	10	5	8	3	8	6	6	3	3	3	2	2		1		1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	4	6	6	6	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3												100
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	0	3	4	3	6	5	8	10	6	8	7	6	6	4	5	4	2	4	3	1	1	1	1	1		0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	1	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3								20		20				20							20			20
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2		0	1	1	1	3	4	2	6	4	3	6	8	7	5	5	4	5	6	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	5	5	5	5	6	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3													20			20		20								40
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2			0				0	0	1	1	2	2	2	4	4	5	3	4	5	8	6	7	9	7	7	6	4	2	4	3	2	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1		0		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	5	5	5	7	6	7	7	8	7	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3																	33								33				33
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	9	8	7	5
		5	-	9	-	2										1			3	1	3	2	2	3	4	2	5	8	6	5	7	10	7	6	8	9	6	4
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1					0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	4	5	8	7	9	9	10	11	11	7
5		5	-	11	-	0					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	13	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2																		2		2			4	4	8	4	6	19	9	11	19	13
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1										0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	3	2	3	5	6	9	12	14	18	22
4		4	-	12	-	0										0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	10	15	22	31
		3	-	11	-	2																					4				8	4	8		4	4	38	29
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																		0		0			1	1	3	2	4	6	9	13	23	38
3		3	-	13	-	0																	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	11	23	53
		2	-	12	-	2																														11	33	56
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																												1	2	9	23	66
2		2	-	14	-	0																							0			0	0	1	2	4	17	75
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																													7	7	29	57
1		1	-	15	-	0																													2	2	5	91
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3