Chicago Bears Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Beat Cincinnati 19-17, playoff odds up 0.07 to 37.5%
1-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17 +7.1
+1.3
-1.3
+0.8
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Francisco vs Green Bay+0.5*+0.1-0.5
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay+0.5*+1.8-0.5
+0.1*+0.2-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Chicago vs Minnesota+8.1*+0.5-8.1
+1.2*-0.6-1.2
-1.2-1.1+1.2
+1.0*+0.1-1.0
Green Bay vs Washington-0.6*+0.2+0.6
Arizona vs Detroit+0.5*-1.2-0.5
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Denver vs NY Giants+0.4*-1.3-0.4
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia+0.4*+1.0-0.4
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Kansas City vs Dallas+0.3*-0.5-0.3
Buffalo vs Carolina+0.3*-0.4-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chicago finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inReg SeasonChance will finish regular season at seedCollege
TWW-L-TplayoffsChamp12345678910111213141516LevelCount
15.5-16In97.1%100No69*
1514-1-0In86.09900No271
14.513-1-1In86.2973No29
1413-2-099.9%63.9971200No1,734
12-1-2InYes100No1
13.512-2-1In50.89433No199
1312-3-099.341.28760510000No7,951
11-2-2In22.2672211No9
12.511-3-199.632.784862000No732
1211-4-096.621.06318201042100000No23,599
10-3-293.831.35319226No32
11.510-4-194.613.0492330127321000No2,037
9-3-3InNo5050No2
1110-5-087.18.02827811495321100000No52,251
9-4-290.112.3263372156424No81
10.59-5-179.33.81426122141175422100No4,158
8-4-3InNo5050No2
109-6-068.12.26171651312107643210000.0%86,456
8-5-269.01.33191931412108541111No155
9.58-6-154.71.1291471112111086432100No6,186
7-5-350.0No5050No2
98-7-042.30.40410991011111087542100.0110,867
7-6-241.60.512111011510138858311No202
8.57-7-129.70.1015968101111119764210.17,215
6-6-3OutNo255025No4
87-8-019.80.0002746891011111086420.3111,487
6-7-217.10.512835116812141010842No199
7.56-8-111.50.00152458101112121110730.96,185
5-7-350.0No502525No4
76-9-06.80.0003124579111213131172.087,141
5-8-26.0No4114451013151491461.5134
6.55-9-13.4No2112357912161516124.54,102
4-8-3OutNo5050No2
65-10-01.6No01011235710141820187.652,402
4-9-2OutNo111511181628189.882
5.54-10-10.3No000123571218262412.12,036
3-9-3OutNo100Yes1
54-11-00.2No000001235916263720.623,800
3-10-2OutNo57512274434.141
4.53-11-1OutNo000124614274627.2790
43-12-00.0No0000001249246040.07,887
2-11-2OutNo99996436.411
3.52-12-1OutNo18167560.7183
32-13-0OutNo0014177863.21,850
1-12-2OutNo100Yes1
2.51-13-1OutNo59568.222
21-14-0OutNo179183.2274
1-1.5OutNo10097.066*
Total:37.5%2.8%87656666666666662.8%602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/5100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17 -1.9
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago vs Minnesota-1.9-0.0+1.9

What If

None

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1615-0-0100
15.514-0-13367
1514-1-086111110
14.513-1-18614
1413-2-0642284110000
12-1-2100
13.512-2-1512213932111
1312-3-0412414853211100000000
11-2-22222113311
12.511-3-133231610643212000
1211-4-02119151297543211110000000000
10-3-23169191366333
11.510-4-11316141210866433221110000000
9-3-35050
1110-5-08111111109865443222111100000000000
9-4-21217106741229464114
10.59-5-147889887665443322111100000
8-4-35050
109-6-024567777766554433222111100000000
8-5-2126586912686451423321121111
9.58-6-11234556676666555443322111000000
7-5-35050
98-7-001223445556666555544433221110000
7-6-20033444686456385333334210200
8.57-7-100112223444556556655545333211100
6-6-325252525
87-8-000011112233444555666655554332210
6-7-21112123443464756577854552321
7.56-8-100000011122233445555666775554321
5-7-325252525
76-9-000000000111122333445666777776542
5-8-211111225387644799457921
6.55-9-100000010111123234456778888774
4-8-35050
65-10-0000000000001111223345678991111108
4-9-215527677151171610
5.54-10-100000111232346681011141512
3-9-3100
54-11-000000000000111123456911151921
3-10-22217215171034
4.53-11-10000122235711152427
43-12-00000000001112358142540
2-11-299182736
3.52-12-1137131661
32-13-000012492063
1-12-2100
2.51-13-152768
21-14-000031383
1.50-14-1100
10-15-02297
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333