Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Detroit Lions Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays Minnesota, playoff odds down 0.06 to 37.4%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	-0.8						-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Detroit vs Minnesota	+7.9*-0.9-7.9		+1.3*+0.0-1.3		-1.4*-0.7+1.4		+0.9*-0.1-0.9
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.4*+0.7-0.4						+0.0*+0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.4*+0.8-0.4						+0.1*+0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Arizona vs Detroit	-7.4*+0.7+7.4		-1.3*+0.2+1.3		+1.3*+0.4-1.3		-0.9*+0.1+0.9
Green Bay vs Washington	-0.5*-0.4+0.5
Buffalo vs Carolina	+0.4*-0.8-0.4						+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Kansas City vs Dallas	+0.4*+1.2-0.4						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.4*+0.3-0.4						+0.1*+0.0-0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.3*+1.1-0.4						+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Detroit finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		Yes		100																No		53	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		83.9	%	99	1															No		149
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		16
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		74.0		98	1			1	0											No		1,068
		13	-	1	-	2	In		Yes		100																No		2
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		61.1		96	2			2	1											No		113
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.8	%	52.5		90	6	0		3	1	0	0	0								No		4,789
		12	-	2	-	2	In		62.5		100																No		8
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.4		43.5		84	9			4	1	0	0									No		474
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.2		31.3		69	19	2	0	7	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				No		15,467
		11	-	3	-	2	In		25.0		75	25															No		24
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	96.3		23.3		54	26	3	0	10	4	2	1	1	0	0			0			No		1,526	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	92.4		14.1		33	31	9	1	12	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0			No		37,543
		10	-	4	-	2	95.0		12.5		36	25	11	3	10	10	3	1	1								No		80
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	85.8		7.9		19	29	14	2	13	9	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		No		3,411
		9	-	4	-	3	In		No		50					50											No		2
10		10	-	6	-	0	77.6		4.8		8	22	19	5	14	11	8	6	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	68,596
		9	-	5	-	2	80.7		3.7		11	19	22	4	15	10	4	4	3	5	3						No		135
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	67.6		2.2		2	13	19	8	13	12	9	8	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	No		5,468
		8	-	5	-	3	50.0		No							50			50								No		2
9		9	-	7	-	0	54.7		1.1		1	5	14	12	11	12	11	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0.0		98,306
		8	-	6	-	2	56.8		1.0		1	5	16	13	15	8	10	11	12	4	5	3	1				No		199
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.9		0.4		0	1	8	13	9	11	11	11	9	9	7	5	4	2	1	0	0.0		7,141
		7	-	6	-	3	60.0		No				20			40				40							No		5
8		8	-	8	-	0	30.1		0.2		0	0	4	11	6	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	6	4	2	1	0.2		111,158
		7	-	7	-	2	29.6		No			0	5	11	5	9	11	12	12	8	9	7	5	3	2	1	No		233
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	19.5		No			0	1	8	4	6	8	9	11	11	10	10	9	7	4	2	0.5		7,090
		6	-	7	-	3	12.5		No						13			13	25			13	25	13			No		8
7		7	-	9	-	0	12.3		0.0			0	0	6	2	4	6	7	9	10	11	12	11	10	8	4	1.0		99,435
		6	-	8	-	2	9.6		No				0	3	2	4	6	7	10	11	13	12	10	8	7	5	1.0		209
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	6.0		No				0	3	1	2	3	5	7	10	11	12	13	14	11	7	2.0		5,549
6		6	-	10	-	0	3.7		No				0	2	1	1	2	3	5	7	10	12	14	16	16	12	4.6		69,295
		5	-	9	-	2	0.8		No					1			2	1	2	10	11	14	15	17	14	14	4.8		125
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.4		No					1	0	1	1	2	3	5	6	10	14	17	21	19	8.0		3,380
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No															50	50		No		2
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.8		No				0	1	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	24	27	13.8		37,828
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No											5	3	5	12	19	19	36	17.2		58
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.1		No							0	0	0	1	2	3	6	9	17	26	37	19.2		1,577	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0		0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	13	25	48	30.4		15,769
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No													5	5	5	9	77	45.5		22
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	0.4		No					0		0			0	0	0	2	3	10	24	59	40.7		487
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No									0	0	0	0	1	3	7	19	71	54.0		4,796
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																25	75	75.0		4
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No													1		5	11	83	65.3		118
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No												0		0	3	14	83	73.4		1,012
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No																	100	Yes		2
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																12	88	76.5		17
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No															1	4	95	83.9		137
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	Yes		56	*

Total:							37.4	%	3.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.2	%	602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit vs Minnesota	-1.8*+0.2+1.8

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Arizona vs Detroit	+1.8*-0.1-1.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	84	11	3	1
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	100
14		14	-	2	-	0	74	17	7	2	1	0	0
		13	-	1	-	2	100
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	61	22	8	4	1	4			1
13		13	-	3	-	0	53	22	11	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			0
		12	-	2	-	2	63	25		13
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	43	27	11	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	31	22	14	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
		11	-	3	-	2	25	54	8	4	4					4
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	23	19	14	10	9	6	5	4	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			0			0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	13	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	13	10	18	13	14	8	1	3	6	6		3	3	1	3				1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	11	11	11	9	8	8	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3									50		50
10		10	-	6	-	0	5	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	4	7	6	8	13	7	8	7	8	5	3	1	4	2	4	3	1	2	3	2		1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	4	5	6	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3								50								50
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	2	2	5	7	4	4	7	9	9	6	3	5	7	6	3	7	4	3	5	2	2	1	1	1
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	1	2	3	4	4	4	5	6	5	5	5	5	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3									20		20	20						20	20
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2			1	2	1	2	3	3	5	5	4	3	5	4	9	4	4	7	5	3	7	5	1	5	3	3	2	1	1	1	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1		0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3							13								13		13		13				13			13	25
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2						1	1	1		2	3	0	2	2	4	4	3	4	9	6	4	7	6	9	5	7	4	3	6	3	2	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	5	4	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	2
6		6	-	10	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	5
		5	-	9	-	2												2	2	2		1		1	3	3	7	6	6	5	12	4	14	6	7	7	7	5
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1					0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	5	7	8	9	9	10	12	11	8
		4	-	9	-	3																									50					50
5		5	-	11	-	0			0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	13	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2														2					2	2	2	7		3	7		9	9	5	19	17	17
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1														0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	1	2	4	4	7	9	12	18	19	19
4		4	-	12	-	0										0		0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	4	5	7	10	14	22	30
		3	-	11	-	2																					5				5				5	5	36	45
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1														0						0	0	1	0	1	2	2	3	5	8	15	22	41
3		3	-	13	-	0																			0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	10	22	54
		2	-	12	-	2																															25	75
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																										1	1	3	3	6	21	65
2		2	-	14	-	0																						0			0	0	0	1	3	6	16	73
		1	-	13	-	2																																100
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																															24	76
1		1	-	15	-	0																														1	15	84
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3