2014 FIFA World Cup Playoff Chances GroupStage 50/50

												100	100	100	100
Chance will make playoffs												Chance will finish regular season at seed
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		1	2	3	4	Avg.	Change	RPI

France	6		2	-	0	-	0	6	82.3	%	-0.0	60	22	14	4	1.6		3	France
Netherlands	6		2	-	0	-	0	5	81.6		-0.0	58	24	14	5	1.6		7	Netherlands
Colombia	6		2	-	0	-	0	4	74.1		-0.1	49	25	18	7	1.8		5	Colombia
Croatia	3		1	-	0	-	1	2	74.1		+0.0	48	26	18	8	1.9		22	Croatia
United States	3	1	1	-	0	-	0	1	70.5		+18.4	45	26	17	13	2.0	+0.48	17	United States
Argentina	6		2	-	0	-	0	2	67.1		+8.8	43	24	21	12	2.0	+0.26	14	Argentina
Costa Rica	6		2	-	0	-	0	3	64.4		+0.0	40	24	23	13	2.1		1	Costa Rica
Brazil	4		1	-	1	-	0	2	60.3		+0.1	30	30	26	14	2.2		2	Brazil
Chile	6		2	-	0	-	0	4	59.0		-0.0	22	37	24	17	2.4		7	Chile
Côte d'Ivoire	3		1	-	0	-	1	0	58.6		+0.1	28	30	26	16	2.3		14	Côte d'Ivoire
Portugal	0	1	0	-	0	-	1	-4	56.5		+18.8	30	27	23	21	2.3	+0.47	29	Portugal
Belgium	3	1	1	-	0	-	0	1	55.3		-0.0	29	26	24	21	2.4		23	Belgium
Uruguay	3		1	-	0	-	1	-1	54.6		-0.0	28	27	26	20	2.4		13	Uruguay
Switzerland	3		1	-	0	-	1	-2	51.7		-0.0	21	31	30	18	2.5		4	Switzerland
Bosnia and Herz	0		0	-	0	-	2	-2	49.1		-2.2	23	26	28	23	2.5	-0.04	23	Bosnia and Herzegovina
Germany	4		1	-	1	-	0	4	49.0		-16.4	19	30	31	20	2.5	-0.43	19	Germany
Russia	1	1	0	-	1	-	0	0	48.4		+0.0	24	25	25	26	2.5		29	Russia
Korea Republic	1	1	0	-	1	-	0	0	48.3		-0.0	24	25	25	26	2.5		29	Korea Republic
Algeria	0	1	0	-	0	-	1	-1	48.0		+0.0	23	25	26	26	2.6		29	Algeria
Nigeria	4		1	-	1	-	0	1	47.3		+2.1	20	27	25	28	2.6	+0.02	14	Nigeria
Ecuador	3		1	-	0	-	1	0	42.4		+0.0	14	29	29	28	2.7		18	Ecuador
Italy	3		1	-	0	-	1	0	40.8		-0.0	17	24	27	33	2.8		7	Italy
England	0		0	-	0	-	2	-2	40.2		+0.0	15	25	25	35	2.8		26	England
Australia	0		0	-	0	-	2	-3	38.5		-0.0	14	24	36	25	2.7		7	Australia
Mexico	4		1	-	1	-	0	1	38.5		-0.0	13	25	29	32	2.8		5	Mexico
Japan	1		0	-	1	-	1	-1	38.2		+0.0	13	25	29	33	2.8		26	Japan
Iran	1		0	-	1	-	1	-1	36.5		-8.7	14	23	26	38	2.9	-0.25	7	Iran
Greece	1		0	-	1	-	1	-3	29.1		-0.0	9	20	27	44	3.1		19	Greece
Cameroon	0		0	-	0	-	2	-5	27.2		-0.0	8	19	26	46	3.1		28	Cameroon
Ghana	1		0	-	1	-	1	-1	24.1		-20.8	7	17	29	47	3.2	-0.53	23	Ghana
Honduras	0		0	-	0	-	2	-4	23.7		-0.0	6	18	27	50	3.2		19	Honduras
Spain	0		0	-	0	-	2	-6	20.9		+0.1	5	16	26	53	3.3		7	Spain

Big Games

Who should we root for? Explain

Week of 6/19
Nigeria 1 Bosnia and Herz 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Bosnia and Herz	-21.5		-0.5
Nigeria	+21.6		+0.6
Iran	-0.3

Uruguay 2 England 1
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Costa Rica	-0.3
Uruguay	+21.3		+0.5
Italy	*-0.1
England	-20.9		-0.5

Colombia 2 Côte d'Ivoire 1
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Colombia	+19.9		+0.5
Côte d'Ivoire	-21.0		-0.5
Japan	+0.9
Greece	*+0.2

Honduras 1 Ecuador 2
Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
France	*-0.1
Switzerland	-0.9
Ecuador	+21.0		+0.5
Honduras	-20.0		-0.5

Switzerland 2 France 5
Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
France	+19.9		+0.5
Switzerland	-21.0		-0.5
Ecuador	+0.8
Honduras	+0.2

Argentina 1 Iran 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Argentina	+20.5		+0.5
Bosnia and Herz	*+0.1
Nigeria	*+0.1
Iran	-20.8		-0.5

Italy 0 Costa Rica 1
Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Costa Rica	+12.8		+0.4
Uruguay	+0.9
Italy	-16.4		-0.5
England	+2.8

Germany 2 Ghana 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
United States	-1.0
Germany	+2.1		+0.0
Ghana	-1.1		-0.0

Japan 0 Greece 0
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Colombia	+0.4
Côte d'Ivoire	+1.0
Japan			+0.0
Greece	-1.4		-0.0

Italy vs UruguayIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Costa Rica	64.861.466.3
Uruguay	15.666.884.4		3.42.01.6
Italy	80.126.912.0		1.73.13.5
England	39.544.937.3

Bosnia and Herz vs IranHomeDrawAway
Wed	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Argentina	67.666.267.2
Bosnia and Herz	79.358.512.0		1.82.13.5
Nigeria	44.053.246.1
Iran	9.122.174.6		3.63.21.9

Greece vs Côte d'IvoireHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Colombia	74.072.875.3
Côte d'Ivoire	23.469.086.1		3.12.01.6
Japan	40.642.033.0
Greece	62.116.25.7		2.23.43.7

Nigeria vs ArgentinaHomeDrawAway
Wed	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Argentina	33.579.491.6		2.91.71.4
Bosnia and Herz	48.544.853.0
Nigeria	81.638.919.1		1.72.93.3

Honduras vs SwitzerlandHomeDrawAway
Wed	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
France	82.881.7*82.2		1.61.61.7
Switzerland	17.559.580.1		3.32.21.8
Ecuador	45.448.434.8
Honduras	54.310.42.9		2.43.53.8

Costa Rica vs EnglandHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Costa Rica	88.974.932.2		1.41.82.9
Uruguay	57.252.453.6
Italy	39.542.341.1
England	14.430.473.2		3.43.11.9

Cameroon vs BrazilHomeDrawAway
Mon	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Croatia	73.872.575.4
Brazil	27.869.386.0		3.02.01.6
Mexico	41.641.932.9
Cameroon	56.716.35.7		2.43.43.7

Croatia vs MexicoHomeDrawAway
Mon	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Croatia	94.784.845.4		1.31.62.6
Brazil	66.757.156.3
Mexico	13.129.970.4		3.43.02.0
Cameroon	25.528.328.0

Australia vs SpainHomeDrawAway
Mon	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Netherlands	80.182.282.6
Chile	52.465.660.7
Australia	65.043.28.6		2.12.43.6
Spain	2.59.148.1		3.83.62.5

Japan vs ColombiaHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Colombia	45.684.894.7		2.61.61.3
Côte d'Ivoire	54.956.164.1
Japan	70.229.112.9		2.03.13.4
Greece	29.330.028.3		3.13.13.0

Netherlands vs ChileHomeDrawAway
Mon	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Netherlands	97.791.657.9		1.11.42.4
Chile	33.555.587.1		3.02.61.5
Australia	45.633.135.4
Spain	23.219.819.5

Ecuador vs FranceHomeDrawAway
Wed	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
France	60.590.997.6		2.21.41.2
Switzerland	45.748.360.2
Ecuador	71.437.117.2		2.02.93.3
Honduras	22.3*23.725.0		3.33.23.1

Korea Republic vs AlgeriaHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Korea Republic	69.748.227.0		2.02.53.1
Algeria	26.847.769.5		3.12.62.0

Belgium vs RussiaHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Belgium	76.156.033.8		1.82.32.9
Russia	27.248.069.9		3.12.62.0

United States vs PortugalHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
United States	88.673.150.3		1.41.92.5
Portugal	35.756.777.1		2.92.41.8
Germany	51.546.248.4

Week of 6/26
United States vs GermanyIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
United States	90.372.848.9		1.41.92.5
Portugal	61.254.053.6
Germany	22.848.675.3		3.12.61.9
Ghana	25.724.522.2		3.13.23.2

Portugal vs GhanaHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
United States	70.771.569.4
Portugal	77.457.534.7		1.82.32.9
Germany	46.551.649.4
Ghana	5.419.346.4		3.73.22.6

Algeria vs RussiaHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Russia	27.1*48.369.8		3.12.52.0
Korea Republic	*48.248.948.0
Algeria	69.447.726.8		2.02.63.1

Korea Republic vs BelgiumHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Belgium	33.856.076.1		2.92.31.8
Korea Republic	69.848.027.2		2.02.63.1

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Noah Gilbert for adding this league.