Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Lost to Chicago 17-19, playoff odds down 0.4 to 36.7%
0-1-0   .000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17 -7.2
-1.3
+1.3
-0.8
Denver 7 Baltimore 21 -0.5
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Miami vs Cleveland+0.5*-1.6-0.5
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh+0.5*+1.6-0.5
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay-0.4*-0.2+0.4
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh+8.1*-0.6-8.1
+1.2*-0.5-1.2
-1.3*-0.4+1.3
+0.9*-0.0-0.9
San Diego vs Philadelphia-0.4*+0.9+0.4
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs Carolina-0.3*-2.0+0.4
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Kansas City vs Dallas-0.3*-0.7+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Denver vs NY Giants-0.3*+0.3+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Cincinnati finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inReg SeasonChance will finish regular season at seedCollege
TWW-L-TplayoffsChamp12345678910111213141516LevelCount
14.5-15InYes100No65*
1414-1-0In80.4%9910No286
13.513-1-1In77.8100No27
1313-2-099.9%64.29530200No1,784
12-1-2In50.0100No2
12.512-2-1In56.1871111No196
1212-3-099.341.8771610511000No7,876
11-2-2In14.38614No7
11.511-3-198.429.860273062110No794
10-2-3InYes100No1
1111-4-096.220.743327110421100000No23,860
10-3-293.323.3473073733No30
10.510-4-193.813.82335152136321000No2,165
9-3-3InNo100No2
1010-5-086.67.612272051496321100000No51,848
9-4-288.02.21032224129822No92
9.59-5-178.13.931723101411854211000No4,274
8-4-3InNo100No1
99-6-066.52.01819131312108643210000.0%86,881
8-5-257.0No18138111615784531No149
8.58-6-155.00.9021217111211986532100No6,292
7-5-3InNo5050No2
88-7-041.00.40161591011111087542100.0111,182
7-6-240.60.61615109129121171521No175
7.57-7-128.10.10212691010111110864210.27,070
6-6-325.0No25252525No4
77-8-018.90.001846891011111097420.4111,558
6-7-215.6No62787101315128841No186
6.56-8-110.7No05245791012121210730.86,221
5-7-3OutNo5050No2
66-9-06.30.003123579111314131172.286,644
5-8-27.0No411548610151612891.4142
5.55-9-12.9No10123571013141715124.14,193
4-8-3OutNo333333No3
55-10-01.4No1001235710141820198.252,109
4-9-21.4No1131718131818199.772
4.54-10-10.6No000112581117262713.32,032
3-9-3OutNo100No1
44-11-00.2No000001235916263821.723,549
3-10-2OutNo3316324529.031
3.53-11-1OutNo0002714255130.3753
33-12-0OutNo00012410236141.97,909
2-11-2OutNo148671.47
2.52-12-1OutNo117197250.3169
22-13-0OutNo0014167965.01,927
1.51-13-1OutNo227869.436
11-14-0OutNo1189081.2276
0-0.5OutNo100Yes59*
Total:36.7%2.8%45686666666666662.9%602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/5100.0*Lottery seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17 +1.8
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Lottery seed
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh-1.9*+0.0+1.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
14.5-15100
1414-1-08014510
13.513-1-178194
1313-2-0642184201000
12-1-25050
12.512-2-1562013532111
1212-3-042231485321110000000
11-2-2147114
11.511-3-13025161075312101000
10-2-3100
1111-4-021191512965432111100000000000
10-3-2231327133333333
10.510-4-114151412108664232211000000
9-3-35050
1010-5-081111101097755433221111000000000000
9-4-2291112121354910171112
9.59-5-14789987767544332211110000000
8-4-3100
99-6-024567777766554433322111100000000
8-5-23354485855958463324121111
8.58-6-11233555666666654443332211100000
7-5-35050
88-7-001223345556666555544433221111000
7-6-21311323935653756757531222121
7.57-7-100111233344556665565545432221100
6-6-325252525
77-8-000001112233344555666665554432210
6-7-2111113215347361064666473632
6.56-8-10000011122233344566666676554321
5-7-35050
66-9-000000000111122233445566777776542
5-8-21111433313224866676968541
5.55-9-10000000011112333557779898864
4-8-3333333
55-10-00000000000011112233445679101111118
4-9-2111436101078811101010
4.54-10-1000001111113345671013121613
3-9-3100
44-11-000000000000111223457811151922
3-10-2361013231629
3.53-11-1011123589142530
33-12-000000001112359132442
2-11-22971
2.52-12-11227142550
22-13-000000011372165
1.51-13-13681469
11-14-001141381
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333