Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays at NY Jets, playoff odds up 0.03 to 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17 -0.4
-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay-7.1*-0.6+7.1
-1.3*-0.2+1.3
+1.3*+0.0-1.3
-0.8*+0.0+0.8
Seattle vs Carolina+0.6*-0.6-0.6
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
New Orleans vs Tampa Bay-8.0*+0.4+8.0
-1.4*-0.1+1.4
+1.3*-0.4-1.3
-0.9*+0.0+0.9
Buffalo vs Carolina+0.8*+2.1-0.8
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Atlanta vs St. Louis-0.5*-2.6+0.5
-0.0-0.1+0.0
San Diego vs Philadelphia+0.5*+2.3-0.5
+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Kansas City vs Dallas+0.3*+0.2-0.3
Denver vs NY Giants+0.3*-1.4-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inReg SeasonChance will finish regular season at seedCollege
TWW-L-TplayoffsChamp12345678910111213141516LevelCount
15-16In90.6%100No171*
14.514-1-1In75.0946No16
1414-2-099.9%74.7971100No1,097
13-1-2InYes100No3
13.513-2-1In67.69631No108
1313-3-099.652.6906031000No5,023
12-2-2In62.5100No8
12.512-3-199.441.48490511No515
1212-4-098.129.867192073100000No15,654
11-3-2In21.46425444No28
11.511-4-197.522.95326401041100No1,578
1111-5-091.913.933309112742110000No37,726
10-4-297.311.02726141151411No73
10.510-5-187.38.3193015213953211000No3,453
9-4-3InNo5050No2
1010-6-077.34.782119514118542210000No69,163
9-5-285.25.97192771971023No135
9.59-6-166.32.32121991312107643211000.0%5,484*
99-7-054.61.01514121111119865321000.098,329
8-6-249.30.551471014111011643320No215*
8.58-7-141.60.40181481011111096542100.07,242*
88-8-030.10.20041168101010109764210.2110,982
7-7-230.0No511771012811108532No220
7.57-8-121.00.1011046791110111086420.47,244
6-7-350.0No25252525No4
77-9-012.30.0006246791011121110841.098,468
6-8-27.8No512691589121212630.5217
6.56-9-16.9No04124589111313121172.25,483
5-8-3OutNo2525252525.04
66-10-03.60.002112357912141616124.768,861
5-9-22.4No212232161312241672.4124
5.55-10-11.3No1001135610141821197.33,340
4-9-3OutNo5050No2
55-11-00.7No0000123581217232814.037,646
4-10-2OutNo14761822221813.467
4.54-11-10.3No0000236916273820.41,539
44-12-00.1No000000123713254830.415,975
3-11-2OutNo74429213625.028
3.53-12-1OutNo0001411216244.3494*
33-13-00.0No0000126216952.24,820
2-12-2OutNo10083.36
2.52-13-1OutNo14197764.3112
22-14-0OutNo002128572.81,063*
1.51-14-1OutNo69482.417
11-15-0OutNo1169388.4147
0-0.5OutNo100Yes58*
Total:37.5%3.2%66666666666666663.2%602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/5100.0*Lottery seed
Dallas 3 NY Giants 44 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay+1.8*-0.1-1.8
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Lottery seed
New Orleans vs Tampa Bay+1.8*-0.0-1.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-0861221
14.514-1-175196
1414-2-0751842010000
13-1-2100
13.513-2-16820642
1313-3-0532211642111000000
12-2-2632513
12.512-3-1412412953311100
1212-4-0302215107532211100000000000
11-3-221361814444
11.511-4-123201411106533221010000
1111-5-014151312108654322211110000000000
10-4-21119781411104344311
10.510-5-18111010109876444222111110000000
9-4-35050
1010-6-05789887766544332221111000000000
9-5-269118108104974242231
9.59-6-124566787665645433322111110000000
99-7-012345566666665544433222111100000
8-6-2032424537947774573223311110
8.58-7-101223444555666665554433221110000
88-8-000112233444555555555544433221100
7-7-22131454487564545854511321100
7.57-8-100001122233445556665655544422210
6-7-325252525
77-9-000000111122233444555666666554321
6-8-2001111114656664656575664410
6.56-9-1000000111222333445567777766542
5-8-325252525
66-10-000000000001111122334456677888875
5-9-2111121412663125612108782
5.55-10-1000000001112223445688101111127
4-9-35050
55-11-0000000000000111112334578911131514
4-10-2111313933716918913
4.54-11-1000000001123357812152120
44-12-0000000000001112235710152130
3-11-2474771172925
3.53-12-100000112358142144
33-13-0000000011135122352
2-12-21783
2.52-13-14182364
22-14-0000001271773
1.51-14-11882
11-15-013888
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333