Oakland Raiders Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays at Indianapolis, playoff odds down 0.04 to 37.8%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Denver 7 Baltimore 21 +0.5
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17 +0.5
+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Indianapolis vs Oakland-7.4*-0.8+7.4
-1.3*-0.8+1.4
+1.4*-0.3-1.4
-0.9*-0.1+0.9
Kansas City vs Jacksonville-0.5*+2.2+0.5
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Houston vs San Diego+0.5*-1.8-0.5
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay-0.3*+1.6+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Reg Season Champ100.0*College Level100.0*Average seed
Oakland vs Jacksonville+7.5*-0.1-7.5
+1.3*-0.3-1.3
-1.3*-0.5+1.3
+0.9*+0.1-0.9
Denver vs NY Giants-0.8-2.9+0.9
-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Kansas City vs Dallas-0.8*-0.1+0.8
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia-0.8*+1.1+0.8
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs Carolina-0.3*-0.5+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Oakland finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inReg SeasonChance will finish regular season at seedCollege
TWW-L-TplayoffsChamp12345678910111213141516LevelCount
15.5-16InYes100No54*
1515-1-0In87.0%991No138*
14.514-1-1In75.0100No20
1414-2-099.8%73.79810100No1,070
13.513-2-1In72.59811No102
1313-3-099.853.29060410000No4,750
12-2-2In41.78388No12
12.512-3-199.638.983905100No506
1212-4-098.131.0681920731000000No15,947
11-3-2In25.06321413No24
11.511-4-195.720.3552439421100No1,524*
1111-5-092.313.8353091116421100000No37,789
10-4-297.117.441321219311No69
10.510-5-187.18.419311321385321100000No3,363*
1010-6-077.74.782219513108542210000No69,527
9-5-281.57.3102715514115622211No124
9.59-6-167.72.131420912111085422100No5,676
8-5-3InNo5050No2
99-7-055.01.11615121111109864321100.0%98,823
8-6-266.20.5714151714557734010No210
8.58-7-141.20.3018139101111987532100.07,217
7-6-3InNo3367No3
88-8-030.60.2004126891010109864210.2110,563
7-7-228.8No02136781110101286321No240
7.57-8-119.20.001846891011111187420.27,237
6-7-350.0No5050No2
77-9-012.70.0006246791011111110741.198,474
6-8-213.1No625687815111410530.5183*
6.56-9-16.40.003123579111313131172.35,499
5-8-3OutNo5050No2
66-10-03.70.002112357912141616124.568,938
5-9-24.3No311167111313191882.1140
5.55-10-11.9No1011235610141720208.33,343*
55-11-00.8No00000123581217242813.937,593
4-10-2OutNo11114112033265.770
4.54-11-10.3No000012351115263721.71,493*
44-12-00.2No000000123713254930.715,517
3-11-2OutNo3339315040.632
3.53-12-1OutNo2148246143.5478
33-13-00.0No00000137206952.64,772
2-12-2OutNo257575.04
2.52-13-1OutNo214187562.2119
22-14-0OutNo012108774.61,054*
1.51-14-1OutNo10088.927
11-15-0OutNo169384.1157
0-0.5OutNo100Yes57*
Total:37.8%3.2%66666666666666663.1%602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5100.0*Lottery seed
Indianapolis vs Oakland+1.8*+0.1-1.8
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12100.0*Lottery seed
Oakland vs Jacksonville-1.9*-0.1+1.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-0871021
14.514-1-175205
1414-2-0741752100000
13.513-2-1731942111
1313-3-05322126321100000000
12-2-242251788
12.512-3-1392515863211100
1212-4-031221510753221110000000000
11-3-225258888134
11.511-4-1202016128753221110000000
1111-5-014151311108654332211110000000000000
10-4-21713126149746131311
10.510-5-18101111118765543221111100000000
1010-6-05789887766544332221111000000000
9-5-2766106914103255621122121
9.59-6-1246777776665543333221111000000
8-5-35050
99-7-012345566666655544333222111100000
8-6-2026346810103676632234322100100
8.58-7-101223345556665665544433221111000
7-6-3333333
88-8-000112233444555555555544433221100
7-7-21202142346364777755634333210
7.57-8-100011112233344555566655554433210
6-7-35050
77-9-000000111122233444555666666554321
6-8-213224252265473786105554111
6.56-9-100000000111122234455567876776542
5-8-35050
66-10-000000000001111122334456678889875
5-9-2111111353513463711871172
5.55-10-100000000101112223455689101012108
55-11-00000000000001111223345671012141414
4-10-211114134201710206
4.54-11-1000001112123357811181622
44-12-00000000000001112235710142231
3-11-233391691641
3.53-12-101112248152344
33-13-0000000000001236112353
2-12-22575
2.52-13-1112682162
22-14-000011251675
1.51-14-17489
11-15-0131384
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333