Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays Oakland, playoff odds up 0.2 to 37.7%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Indianapolis vs Oakland	+7.5*-0.8-7.5		+1.4-1.2-1.3		-1.4*-0.3+1.4		+0.9*-0.0-0.9
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh	-0.5*+0.7+0.5						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	+0.5*-0.4-0.5
Houston vs San Diego	-0.5*+1.1+0.5						-0.0*+0.2+0.0
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.4*+0.8+0.4						-0.0*+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Miami vs Indianapolis	-7.4*-0.7+7.4		-1.3*-0.6+1.3		+1.4*-0.6-1.4		-0.9*-0.0+0.9
Oakland vs Jacksonville	+0.6*-1.0-0.6						+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.4*-0.6+0.4						-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.4*+0.3+0.4						-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.3*+0.3+0.3
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.3*+1.7+0.3						-0.0*+0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Indianapolis finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		98.3	%	100																No		58
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		90.8		99				1												No		141
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		76.2		100																No		21
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		76.5		98	1			1												No		1,084
		13	-	1	-	2	In		50.0		100																No		2
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		58.6		95	1			4												No		99
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.7	%	51.4		89	6	0		3	1	0	0	0								No		4,892
		12	-	2	-	2	In		44.4		100																No		9
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.4		41.7		86	7	1		4	2	0				0						No		499
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.0		30.1		69	18	1	0	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		15,612
		11	-	3	-	2	95.7		17.4		65	26			4			4									No		23
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	95.2		21.8		55	23	3	0	9	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0				No		1,532
11		11	-	5	-	0	92.0		13.8		35	30	9	1	12	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		37,700
		10	-	4	-	2	96.4		17.9		32	25	14		16	9		2	2								No		56
		9	-	3	-	4	In		No			100															No		1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	87.1		7.4		19	30	14	2	13	9	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		No		3,446
10		10	-	6	-	0	77.7		4.5		9	22	18	5	14	10	8	5	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0.0	%	69,094
		9	-	5	-	2	80.7		0.8		4	20	18	7	19	12	8	4	2	3	2	1	1				No		119
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	68.2		2.3		3	13	19	8	14	12	10	8	5	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	No		5,410
		8	-	5	-	3	66.7		No		33					33		33									No		3
9		9	-	7	-	0	54.8		1.1		1	6	14	11	11	11	11	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0.0		98,818
		8	-	6	-	2	54.3		1.0			7	13	11	12	13	12	8	9	7	5	2	2	1	1	1	No		199
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.4		0.5		0	2	9	12	9	10	11	10	9	9	7	5	3	2	1	0	0.1		7,083
		7	-	6	-	3	40.0		No				20		20				40	20							No		5
8		8	-	8	-	0	30.3		0.2		0	1	4	11	6	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	6	4	3	1	0.2		111,073
		7	-	7	-	2	30.7		No			2	2	12	7	9	6	8	14	11	8	12	4	4	2	1	No		199
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	19.9		0.1			0	1	9	4	6	8	9	11	11	11	10	9	6	4	2	0.4		6,988
		6	-	7	-	3	33.3		No					33				33					33				No		3
7		7	-	9	-	0	12.7		0.0			0	0	6	2	4	6	7	9	10	11	11	11	10	8	4	1.0		99,003
		6	-	8	-	2	11.9		No				1	5	1	6	10	3	10	8	13	13	8	11	6	6	1.7		177
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	6.2		No				0	3	1	2	4	5	8	10	11	12	13	13	11	7	2.2		5,636
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No											50					50		No		2
6		6	-	10	-	0	3.8		No				0	2	1	1	2	4	5	7	9	12	14	15	16	12	4.8		69,141
		5	-	9	-	2	1.6		No					1	1		4	2	8	7	7	9	15	17	20	10	3.9		129
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.8		No					1	0	0	1	2	3	5	7	10	15	16	20	19	8.7		3,252
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No										25			25		25	25		No		4
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.8		No					0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	24	28	14.3		37,564
		4	-	10	-	2	1.6		No					2					2			10	19	10	24	35	17.5		63
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.3		No					0		0	0	0	1	2	3	5	9	15	26	38	20.6		1,546
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	13	25	49	31.4		15,686
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No															20	20	60	50.0		10
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	0.2		No					0						0	1	3	5	9	24	58	40.1		484
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No									0	0	0	0	1	2	6	20	70	52.1		4,783
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																9	91	54.5		11
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No														1	5	14	80	67.0		106
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No														0	3	12	85	73.4		967
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																6	94	81.3		16
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No														1		2	97	94.2		138
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	Yes		57	*

Total:							37.7	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.2	%	602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Indianapolis vs Oakland	-1.8+0.1+1.8

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Miami vs Indianapolis	+1.8*+0.1-1.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	98	2
15		15	-	1	-	0	91	9
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	76	14	10
14		14	-	2	-	0	76	15	5	2	1	0	0	0		0
		13	-	1	-	2	50	50
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	59	24	8	1	4	2	2
13		13	-	3	-	0	51	23	12	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	44	44			11
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	42	24	16	6	5	3	2	1	0	1		0	0						0
12		12	-	4	-	0	30	22	15	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0	0			0
		11	-	3	-	2	17	39	9	17	9			4					4
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	22	19	15	12	8	5	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0		0		0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	13	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0		0
		10	-	4	-	2	18	14	11	9	9	11	11	7	5	2			2		2
		9	-	3	-	4						100
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	7	11	11	11	10	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10		10	-	6	-	0	4	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	1	8	8	7	8	11	8	9	8	8	3	3	3	3	2	3		1	1	3	2	1	1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	4	5	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3					33						33									33
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	2	4	3	6	4	7	7	5	8	5	7	4	3	8	5	5	3	4	2	3	1	2	2	2	1	1		1	1
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	5	5	6	5	6	5	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3										20			20		20			20	20
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2				2	2	1	6	4	4	2	5	2	6	6	5	3	4	5	9	7	8	6	4	2	3	3	3	3
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3											33							33								33
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2			1	1	1	1		1		1	3	2	6	4	3	4	4	4	6	6	4	7	3	7	6	7	7	4	4	3	2	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1			0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3																			50									50
6		6	-	10	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	7	5
		5	-	9	-	2										2			1	2	1	4	1	1	5	2	5	4	4	5	8	5	12	8	12	8	6	4
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1					0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	7	10	9	11	10	9
		4	-	9	-	3															25						25							25	25
5		5	-	11	-	0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	13	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2																2	2						6	3	5	6	6	13	8	16	16	17
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1												0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	3	3	3	4	7	10	11	14	20	21
4		4	-	12	-	0				0				0		0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	10	15	22	31
		3	-	11	-	2																								10					20	10	10	50
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																		0	0			0	0	0	2	2	4	5	8	14	23	40
3		3	-	13	-	0																	0		0	0		0	0	1	1	1	2	3	6	11	23	52
		2	-	12	-	2																														9	36	55
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																									1			1	2	9	20	67
2		2	-	14	-	0																				0						0		1	2	5	18	73
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																														13	6	81
1		1	-	15	-	0																													1		5	94
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3