Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays at Kansas City, playoff odds up 0.2 to 37.6%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.4						+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	-7.5*-0.4+7.5		-1.3*-0.5+1.3		+1.3*-0.6-1.3		-0.9+0.0+0.9
Indianapolis vs Oakland	-0.5*+2.0+0.5						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Houston vs San Diego	-0.5*-1.7+0.5						-0.0-0.2+0.0
Tennessee vs Pittsburgh	-0.5*-0.0+0.5
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.3*+0.6+0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Oakland vs Jacksonville	-7.4*+1.8+7.4		-1.3*-0.3+1.4		+1.3*+0.0-1.3		-0.9*+0.1+0.9
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.4*+1.0+0.4						-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs Indianapolis	+0.4*+2.1-0.4						+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.4*+1.7+0.4						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.4*-1.2+0.4						-0.0*-0.1+0.0
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.4*-1.7+0.4						-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Jacksonville finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

14.5	-16						In		86.0	%	100																No		214	*
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		71.6		98	1			1												No		1,050
		13	-	1	-	2	In		No		100																No		2
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	99.2	%	65.2		95	3			1				1								No		132
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.6		52.3		91	4	0		3	1	0	0	0								No		4,851
		12	-	2	-	2	In		57.1		71				14	14											No		7
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.4		37.6		86	7			5	1	1										No		492
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.1		31.3		69	18	1	0	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0		No		15,457
		11	-	3	-	2	In		39.1		65	26	4			4											No		23
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	96.3		21.2		55	25	3		9	5	2	1	0	0	0		0				No		1,516
11		11	-	5	-	0	92.4		13.9		35	30	8	1	12	7	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		37,814
		10	-	4	-	2	96.0		17.3		36	36	4	1	16	3	3	1									No		75
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	87.8		8.3		21	31	14	2	13	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		No		3,391
		9	-	4	-	3	In		No				100														No		1
10		10	-	6	-	0	77.6		4.7		9	22	18	5	13	10	8	5	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	No		69,441
		9	-	5	-	2	81.8		5.1		12	23	15	4	17	10	8	4	2	1	1	1					No		137
		8	-	4	-	4	In		No			100															No		1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	67.4		1.7		3	13	18	8	13	13	10	7	5	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.0	%	5,601
		8	-	5	-	3	In		No					100													No		1
9		9	-	7	-	0	54.7		1.1		1	6	14	11	11	11	11	9	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0.0		98,181
		8	-	6	-	2	53.4		No		1	5	10	16	12	10	11	11	5	10	3	2	2	2			No		176
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	42.6		0.5		0	2	9	13	9	10	10	11	9	9	7	5	3	2	1	0	0.1		7,214
		7	-	6	-	3	57.1		No				14	29	14				14	29							No		7
8		8	-	8	-	0	30.3		0.2		0	0	4	11	6	8	10	10	10	10	9	7	6	4	2	1	0.2		111,080
		7	-	7	-	2	27.5		No			0	2	12	6	8	9	9	10	13	8	11	6	3	2	0	No		233
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	20.0		0.2			0	1	8	4	6	7	9	11	11	11	9	8	6	5	2	0.5		7,088
		6	-	7	-	3	25.0		No							25	25		25							25	No		4
7		7	-	9	-	0	12.3		0.0			0	0	6	2	4	6	7	9	10	11	12	11	10	7	4	1.1		98,613
		6	-	8	-	2	13.4		No				0	6	2	5	5	9	8	8	12	15	11	9	8	3	No		217
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	6.8		No				0	4	1	2	4	5	8	9	11	13	13	13	11	7	1.8		5,481
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No											50	25			25			No		4
6		6	-	10	-	0	3.7		No				0	2	1	1	2	3	5	7	9	12	14	15	16	12	4.7		69,262
		5	-	9	-	2	3.7		No					1	1	1	4	3	4	9	10	12	10	20	11	14	4.4		135
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.5		No				0	1	0	0	1	2	4	4	7	9	14	17	21	20	8.2		3,338
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No												50	50					No		2
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.8		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	24	27	13.9		37,747
		4	-	10	-	2	1.5		No					2							6	9	9	20	34	20	9.2		65
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.3		No					0		0		0	1	2	3	5	10	16	25	38	20.4		1,469
		3	-	10	-	3	Out		No														100				No		1
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0		0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	13	26	48	30.7		15,630
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No													4	8	17	33	38	8.3		24
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No											0	0	2	3	9	22	64	43.8		514
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No									0	0	0	0	1	2	7	20	69	51.7		4,907
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No														13		25	63	37.5		8
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No														1	6	15	78	67.0		100
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No											0		0	1	3	13	83	73.4		1,009
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																10	90	76.2		21
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No																4	96	91.4		152
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																	100	No		1
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No																2	98	98.2		55

Total:							37.6	%	3.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.2	%	602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	+1.8*+0.0-1.8

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oakland vs Jacksonville	+1.8*-0.3-1.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	98	2
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1		100
15		15	-	1	-	0	85	13	2	1
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	67	33
14		14	-	2	-	0	72	18	6	2	1	1	0	0
		13	-	1	-	2		50	50
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	65	20	11		2	1						1
13		13	-	3	-	0	52	23	11	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	57			29				14
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	38	23	16	9	4	5	2	1	2			0	0
12		12	-	4	-	0	31	21	15	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0								0
		11	-	3	-	2	39	13	17	9	13	4				4
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	21	20	14	12	9	6	5	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	14	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
		10	-	4	-	2	17	12	17	13	11	5	7	1	3	7	3		1		1		1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	11	12	12	10	9	7	6	6	4	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10		10	-	6	-	0	5	7	8	9	8	8	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	5	5	9	9	12	11	5	6	6	9	6	3	3	3	1	1	1	1		2			1	1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	4	5	6	7	6	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2		3	3	3	4	6	5	8	5	3	8	7	5	4	6	5	4	5	5	1	4		1	2	2	1	1
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	5	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3					14	14	14		14							14		14	14
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2		1			2	1	3	1	5	4	3	3	4	8	4	6	5	6	4	6	6	5	4	4	3	5	2	2	1		0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3														25	25	25													25
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2					0	1	0	0	1	1	2	1	4	3	2	6	4	4	4	6	9	7	10	5	5	6	6	3	3	2	4
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	7	7	7	8	7	7	6	6	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3																	25				25			25			25
6		6	-	10	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	7	5
		5	-	9	-	2												2	1	1	3			3	5	8	3	6	3	4	10	7	6	10	9	10	5	4
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1				0		0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	4	3	4	5	6	8	8	10	11	11	11	8
		4	-	9	-	3																					50			50
5		5	-	11	-	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	10	11	13	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2																2			2	2		3		2	9	8	9	11	9	15	20	9
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1												0	0		0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	5	7	8	11	16	19	20
4		4	-	12	-	0										0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	10	15	21	31
		3	-	11	-	2																									4	4	8	13	13	17	33	8
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																	0			0			0	1	1	2	2	5	7	13	24	44
3		3	-	13	-	0																	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	11	24	52
		2	-	12	-	2																											13		13	13	25	38
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																								1				1	7	5	19	67
2		2	-	14	-	0																					0			0	0	0	1	1	2	7	15	73
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																														5	19	76
1		1	-	15	-	0																														1	8	91
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																														100
0		0	-	16	-	0																															2	98

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3