Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Seattle Seahawks Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays Carolina, playoff odds up 0.01 to 37.6%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	-0.4						-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Seattle vs Carolina	+7.4*-0.3-7.4		+1.3*-0.6-1.3		-1.4*-0.7+1.4		+0.9*+0.1-0.9
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.5*-0.9+0.5
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.5*-0.2-0.5						+0.1*-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle vs San Francisco	+8.0*+0.1-8.0		+1.3*-0.1-1.3		-1.4*-0.4+1.4		+0.9*-0.0-0.9
Atlanta vs St. Louis	+0.5*+0.1-0.5
Arizona vs Detroit	-0.5*+1.6+0.5
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.5*-0.2-0.5						+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Kansas City vs Dallas	+0.4*-1.0-0.3						+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs Carolina	+0.4*-1.0-0.4
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.3*-2.0-0.3						+0.0*-0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Seattle finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		98.3	%	100																No		59	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		81.3		99				1												No		150
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		87.5		100																No		16
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		72.9		99	1			1												No		1,086
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		66.4		97	2			2												No		116
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.7	%	54.1		90	6	0		3	1	0	0	0								No		4,798
		12	-	2	-	2	In		66.7		100																No		6
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.0		44.1		83	8	0		5	2	1	0									No		521
12		12	-	4	-	0	98.2		30.1		68	18	2	0	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0		0			No		15,393
		11	-	3	-	2	92.0		40.0		68	20			4		8										No		25
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	96.8		22.1		54	26	3	0	10	4	1	1	1	0							No		1,546
		10	-	3	-	3	In		Yes			100															No		1
11		11	-	5	-	0	92.3		14.3		34	30	9	1	12	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		37,728
		10	-	4	-	2	94.4		11.1		32	32	11		17	3	4	1									No		72
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	86.4		8.0		17	30	13	2	14	10	6	4	2	1	0	0	0	0			No		3,359
10		10	-	6	-	0	77.5		4.8		8	21	19	5	14	11	8	5	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	No		69,112
		9	-	5	-	2	80.8		2.5		11	16	22	5	18	10	5	3	4	6			1				No		120
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	67.7		2.2		2	12	19	9	13	12	10	7	6	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0	%	5,530
		8	-	5	-	3	71.4		No				14	29	29					29							No		7
9		9	-	7	-	0	54.8		1.2		1	5	14	12	11	11	10	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	0	0	0.0		99,171
		8	-	6	-	2	56.9		1.0		1	4	17	11	12	11	12	7	8	3	5	7	2	1			No		195
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.7		0.4		0	2	8	13	9	10	11	11	9	9	6	5	4	2	1	0	0.1		7,196
		7	-	6	-	3	In		No				67			33											No		3
8		8	-	8	-	0	30.3		0.2		0	0	4	12	6	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	6	4	2	1	0.2		111,247
		7	-	7	-	2	32.2		0.4				4	11	7	10	13	10	11	10	7	10	3	1	1	1	0.4		227
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	20.4		0.1			0	1	9	4	6	8	10	10	11	10	10	8	7	4	2	0.4		7,269
		6	-	7	-	3	Out		No								13	13	38		13		13	13			No		8
7		7	-	9	-	0	12.5		0.0			0	0	6	2	4	6	7	9	10	11	12	11	10	7	4	1.1		98,441
		6	-	8	-	2	9.8		No				1	5	0	3	5	5	9	10	14	15	10	11	7	3	1.5		204
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	6.8		0.0				0	3	1	2	4	5	7	9	11	12	14	13	11	7	2.1		5,446
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No											33	17	17	17		17		No		6
6		6	-	10	-	0	3.4		No				0	2	1	1	2	4	5	7	9	12	14	16	16	12	4.5		68,852
		5	-	9	-	2	3.4		No					1	1	1	3	3	5	6	16	13	7	19	17	8	3.4		148
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.7		No					1	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	10	13	18	20	18	7.4		3,284
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No																	100	No		1
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.8		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	24	27	14.3		37,623
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No								2	2		5	7	5	13	22	28	17	5.0		60
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.3		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	4	4	9	16	28	37	20.9		1,489
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	13	25	49	30.9		15,687
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No													6		18	47	29	17.6		17
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No										1	0		2	3	8	26	59	43.8		482
3		3	-	13	-	0	0.1		No					0		0			0	0	0	1	2	7	21	69	53.2		4,840
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																	100	75.0		4
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No								1					2		7	7	84	61.5		122
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No												0	0	0	1	12	86	75.0		1,070
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No																	100	Yes		1
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																9	91	81.8		11
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No															1	7	91	87.1		139
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	Yes		56	*

Total:							37.6	%	3.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.2	%	602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seattle vs Carolina	-1.8*-0.1+1.8

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seattle vs San Francisco	-1.8*+0.0+1.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	98	2
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	100
15		15	-	1	-	0	81	15	4
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	88	13
14		14	-	2	-	0	73	18	5	2	1	0	0	0			0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	66	18	7	5	3		1
13		13	-	3	-	0	54	22	11	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			0
		12	-	2	-	2	67	17			17
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	44	20	14	7	5	3	2	2	1	0	1	0				0
12		12	-	4	-	0	30	22	15	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
		11	-	3	-	2	40	12	20	8	4	8					4			4
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	22	20	15	11	9	5	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
		10	-	3	-	3	100
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	14	11	10	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	11	22	13	14	10	3	4	6	6	6	4	1				1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	8	10	11	10	10	9	7	6	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10		10	-	6	-	0	5	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	3	9	8	10	8	8	8	9	4	3	6	3	4	3	3	2	2	5		1	1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	4	6	7	7	7	7	7	6	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0
		8	-	5	-	3			14				29	14		14									14		14
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	1	3	4	6	6	9	4	4	5	7	5	7	6	3	6	4	3	3	2	3	1	5	2	2	2	1	1
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	5	5	6	6	5	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3								33		33		33
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2	0		0	0	1	2	4	5	5	4	5	5	6	7	5	6	5	7	4	4	6	3	4	4	3	1	2	1	0		0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	5	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3														25		13	13		13		13			13		13
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2						0	1	1	2	0	1	2	3	3	4	2	1	6	4	6	8	6	6	5	6	6	5	4	4	4	2	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	4	5	6	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3																		17		17	17		17		17				17
6		6	-	10	-	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	7	4
		5	-	9	-	2								1	1				1	1	3	2	3	1	5	4	5	5	8	10	3	6	6	9	11	7	5	3
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1							0		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	5	7	8	8	9	11	11	11	7
		4	-	9	-	3																															100
5		5	-	11	-	0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	13	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2															2		2	2		3	2	3	3	3	2	3	12	13	17	13	15	5
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1													0	0		0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	3	5	6	8	14	15	19	21
4		4	-	12	-	0						0			0		0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	10	15	22	31
		3	-	11	-	2																										18		12	6	24	24	18
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																0	0	0	0		0	1	0	0	1	2	3	4	8	12	24	44
3		3	-	13	-	0																0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	11	22	53
		2	-	12	-	2																															25	75
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																			1							1	2	1	2	12	20	61
2		2	-	14	-	0																									0		1	1	2	5	17	75
		1	-	13	-	2																																100
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																															18	82
1		1	-	15	-	0																												1	1	2	9	87
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3