Denver Broncos Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 2.5 to 34.7%

0-1-0 .000

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Denver 7 Baltimore 21	-7.7		-1.4		+1.4		-0.9
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.3						+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Indianapolis vs Oakland	+0.6*+0.1-0.6						+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Kansas City vs Jacksonville	-0.6*+1.7+0.6						-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Houston vs San Diego	+0.5*+0.4-0.5
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.4*+0.1+0.4						-0.1*-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Denver vs NY Giants	+7.1*+1.2-7.1		+1.1*-0.3-1.1		-1.4*-0.5+1.4		+0.8*+0.1-0.8
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.9*+0.3+0.9						-0.1+0.0+0.1
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.8*-0.2+0.8						-0.1-0.1+0.1
Oakland vs Jacksonville	-0.6*-0.0+0.6						-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.3*+0.7+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Denver finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

14.5	-15						In		95.7	%	100																No		70	*
14		14	-	1	-	0	In		80.9		99	1			0												No		236
		13	-	0	-	2	In		Yes		100																No		1
13	.5	13	-	1	-	1	In		81.3		94	6															No		32
13		13	-	2	-	0	99.8	%	61.1		91	6	0		2	0	0	0	0								No		1,817
		12	-	1	-	2	In		Yes		100																No		2
12	.5	12	-	2	-	1	In		56.1		87	9			3												No		180
12		12	-	3	-	0	99.2		38.1		70	20	2	0	5	2	1	0	0	0		0					No		7,873
		11	-	2	-	2	In		36.8		89	11															No		19
11	.5	11	-	3	-	1	98.6		25.2		55	26	5	0	9	3	1	0	0	0		0					No		777
11		11	-	4	-	0	95.4		18.1		36	34	10	1	11	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0				No		23,558
		10	-	3	-	2	96.2		23.1		35	38	19			4	4										No		26
10	.5	10	-	4	-	1	90.5		10.4		21	34	14	2	12	7	4	2	2	1	0	0		0			No		2,032
10		10	-	5	-	0	84.2		6.4		9	24	22	6	14	10	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	No		52,266
		9	-	4	-	2	87.9		3.3		12	26	23	3	11	12	5	2	1	2				1			No		91
9	.5	9	-	5	-	1	75.3		3.7		3	15	22	10	13	11	9	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0		No		4,213
		8	-	4	-	3	75.0		No				25	25		25		25									No		4
9		9	-	6	-	0	63.3		1.7		1	7	17	15	13	12	10	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.0	%	86,453
		8	-	5	-	2	68.1		0.6			7	18	16	14	14	11	6	7	3	3	1	2				No		160
8	.5	8	-	6	-	1	51.0		0.5		0	2	10	16	11	12	11	11	9	7	5	4	2	1	1	0	No		6,109
		7	-	5	-	3	66.7		No					33	33		33										No		3
8		8	-	7	-	0	37.6		0.3		0	1	5	15	8	10	11	11	10	9	7	6	4	3	1	0	0.1		111,403
		7	-	6	-	2	40.2		0.5		1	1	7	15	6	10	10	14	8	12	6	5	2	2	1		No		194
7	.5	7	-	7	-	1	25.5		0.0			0	2	11	5	8	10	10	10	11	10	9	7	5	3	1	0.2		7,041
		6	-	6	-	3	Out		No										50				50				No		2
7		7	-	8	-	0	16.9		0.0		0	0	1	8	3	5	7	9	10	11	11	11	9	8	5	2	0.5		111,730
		6	-	7	-	2	15.3		No					6	4	6	8	9	7	11	13	12	11	9	4	2	No		196
6	.5	6	-	8	-	1	8.7		0.0				0	4	2	3	5	7	9	11	11	12	12	11	8	5	1.0		6,242
		5	-	7	-	3	Out		No										100								No		2
6		6	-	9	-	0	5.4		0.0				0	3	1	2	3	5	7	8	11	12	14	14	13	8	2.7		86,941
		5	-	8	-	2	5.2		No					4		1		5	4	7	13	14	17	12	13	10	3.0		135
5	.5	5	-	9	-	1	2.4		No					1	0	1	2	3	4	6	8	12	15	17	17	14	5.2		4,216
5		5	-	10	-	0	1.1		No					1	0	0	1	1	3	4	6	10	13	18	21	21	9.5		52,076
		4	-	9	-	2	Out		No								2	3	1	8	8	6	13	23	22	13	4.7		86
4	.5	4	-	10	-	1	0.5		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	11	17	28	28	14.5		2,065
		3	-	9	-	3	Out		No														100				No		1
4		4	-	11	-	0	0.2		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	9	15	26	40	23.8		23,559
		3	-	10	-	2	Out		No												3	3	10	13	30	40	20.0		30
3	.5	3	-	11	-	1	0.1		No					0				0	1	0	1	2	5	11	29	50	32.9		735
3		3	-	12	-	0	0.0		No					0			0	0	0	0	1	1	3	9	22	63	45.1		7,947
		2	-	11	-	2	Out		No																31	69	61.5		13
2	.5	2	-	12	-	1	Out		No													1	1	5	16	78	61.7		196
		1	-	11	-	3	Out		No																100		No		1
2		2	-	13	-	0	Out		No												0	0	1	3	15	80	67.3		1,845
1	.5	1	-	13	-	1	Out		No																10	90	86.7		30
1		1	-	14	-	0	Out		No													0	1	1	6	92	81.9		270
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	93.9		66	*

Total:							34.7	%	2.4	%	4	5	6	8	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	3.3	%	602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Denver 7 Baltimore 21	+1.9

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Denver vs NY Giants	-1.9*-0.3+1.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15		15	-	0	-	0	97	1		1
14	.5	14	-	0	-	1	67	33
14		14	-	1	-	0	81	14	4	0	0				0
		13	-	0	-	2	100
13	.5	13	-	1	-	1	81	13	6
13		13	-	2	-	0	61	21	9	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	1	-	2	100
12	.5	12	-	2	-	1	56	21	12	7	3			1
12		12	-	3	-	0	38	23	14	8	6	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0					0
		11	-	2	-	2	37	26	11		11	5	11
11	.5	11	-	3	-	1	25	24	15	9	7	7	5	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	0			0
11		11	-	4	-	0	18	17	15	12	9	7	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0
		10	-	3	-	2	23	12	23	12	4	4	8	8		4	4
10	.5	10	-	4	-	1	10	14	11	12	10	8	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0		0		0
10		10	-	5	-	0	6	9	10	10	9	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	2	3	12	16	14	4	4	12	3	3	7	5	4	3		1	2		2											1
9	.5	9	-	5	-	1	4	5	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	4	-	3				25		25			25								25
9		9	-	6	-	0	2	3	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	2	1	3	6	7	4	4	6	11	11	10	4	5	4	6	2	4	1	1	2	3	3	1	1		1	1
8	.5	8	-	6	-	1	1	1	2	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	5	-	3						33		33							33
8		8	-	7	-	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	2	1	2	1	2	3	2	3	5	3	6	5	6	6	9	4	8	4	5	7	4	8	3	3	2	1		2		1
7	.5	7	-	7	-	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	0	0
		6	-	6	-	3																50						50
7		7	-	8	-	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	1	1
		6	-	7	-	2					1	1	2		1	3	3	4	6	2	3	5	3	5	8	4	9	4	7	9	4	5	4	3	4	3
6	.5	6	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	5	6	6	6	6	7	6	6	5	4	3	3	1
		5	-	7	-	3																50					50
6		6	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	3
		5	-	8	-	2				1							1	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	4	6	7	5	5	7	8	7	12	4	7	7	4	3
5	.5	5	-	9	-	1					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	5	7	8	7	9	9	10	9	8	5
5		5	-	10	-	0			0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	12	12	9
		4	-	9	-	2															3	1	3	1	2	1	5	3	2	3	6	8	16	10	9	9	9	5
4	.5	4	-	10	-	1											0		0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	5	8	9	13	15	16	15
		3	-	9	-	3																										100
4		4	-	11	-	0							0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	5	6	8	11	15	20	24
		3	-	10	-	2																			3				7			3	3	13	13	3	33	20
3	.5	3	-	11	-	1																		0	1		0	1	1	1	2	1	4	6	10	17	24	33
3		3	-	12	-	0																	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	13	23	45
		2	-	11	-	2																												8	15	8	8	62
2	.5	2	-	12	-	1																											2	2	4	10	21	62
		1	-	11	-	3																													100
2		2	-	13	-	0																			0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	2	3	8	19	67
1	.5	1	-	13	-	1																													3		10	87
1		1	-	14	-	0																							0				1			3	14	82
0	.5	0	-	14	-	1																																100
0		0	-	15	-	0																															6	94

Total:							2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3