San Francisco 49ers Playoff Chances 2013 50/50

Plays Green Bay, playoff odds down 0.04 to 37.5%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	-0.4						-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+7.4*+1.1-7.4		+1.3*-0.4-1.3		-1.3*-0.5+1.3		+0.9*+0.1-0.9
Seattle vs Carolina	-0.5*+0.1+0.5
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	+0.3*+0.3-0.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle vs San Francisco	-8.0*+0.8+8.0		-1.4*-0.7+1.4		+1.3*-0.5-1.3		-0.9*+0.1+0.9
Arizona vs Detroit	-0.5*+0.2+0.5
Denver vs NY Giants	+0.5*+0.3-0.5						+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs St. Louis	+0.4*-0.6-0.4
Buffalo vs Carolina	+0.4*+1.2-0.4						+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Kansas City vs Dallas	+0.3*+1.8-0.3						+0.0*+0.2-0.0
San Diego vs Philadelphia	+0.3*+1.3-0.3						+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Francisco finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

15.5	-16						In		Yes		100																No		57	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		90.8	%	99	1															No		120
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		73.3		100																No		15
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		73.3		97	1			2												No		980
		13	-	1	-	2	In		Yes		100																No		1
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	99.2	%	61.3		91	3			5		1										No		119
13		13	-	3	-	0	99.6		52.1		90	6	0		3	1	0	0		0							No		4,778
		12	-	2	-	2	In		71.4		100																No		7
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	99.6		40.5		82	11	1		5	1	0		0								No		513
12		12	-	4	-	0	97.9		31.0		68	18	2	0	8	3	1	0	0	0	0						No		15,774
		11	-	3	-	2	95.7		21.7		61	22			13		4										No		23
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	96.6		22.2		53	25	4	0	11	4	2	1	1	0							No		1,529
		10	-	3	-	3	In		No		100																No		2
11		11	-	5	-	0	92.0		14.0		33	31	9	1	12	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		37,591
		10	-	4	-	2	95.3		9.4		33	31	8		17	6	2		2	2							No		64
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	86.7		7.0		18	30	15	2	14	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0			No		3,319
10		10	-	6	-	0	77.7		4.7		8	21	19	5	14	11	8	5	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	No		68,991
		9	-	5	-	2	78.6		6.1		3	25	18	5	20	8	10	5	2	2	2	1					No		131
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	67.2		2.1		2	13	18	9	13	12	9	8	6	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	No		5,548
		8	-	5	-	3	Out		No								33		33			33					No		3
9		9	-	7	-	0	54.5		1.1		1	5	14	12	11	11	11	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0.0	%	98,693
		8	-	6	-	2	57.8		0.5		1	2	14	14	14	13	11	8	6	6	6	3		1	1	0	No		218
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	42.5		0.3		0	1	9	13	9	11	11	10	10	8	7	6	3	2	1	0	0.1		7,151
		7	-	6	-	3	In		No				40	40		20											No		5
8		8	-	8	-	0	30.4		0.2		0	0	4	12	6	8	10	10	10	10	9	7	6	4	2	1	0.2		111,340
		7	-	7	-	2	27.5		0.4			0	5	10	4	9	10	12	9	9	12	9	6	3	1	2	0.4		233
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	20.1		0.0			0	1	8	4	7	8	9	11	10	10	10	9	6	4	2	0.4		7,167
		6	-	7	-	3	66.7		No					33		33	33										No		3
7		7	-	9	-	0	12.2		0.0			0	0	6	2	4	6	7	9	10	11	12	11	10	8	4	1.1		98,525
		6	-	8	-	2	12.1		No					7	3	3	7	6	8	8	11	10	13	12	11	4	1.5		199
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	6.5		No				0	3	1	2	4	6	7	9	11	11	14	14	11	7	1.9		5,537
		5	-	8	-	3	20.0		No							20			20	20	20				20		No		5
6		6	-	10	-	0	3.6		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	4	5	7	9	11	14	16	16	12	4.7		69,125
		5	-	9	-	2	1.2		No						1	1	1	6	3	7	10	11	19	17	15	10	2.5		162
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	1.2		No					1	0	0	1	2	3	5	7	10	14	19	21	18	7.4		3,275
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No														100				No		1
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.8		No					0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	12	17	24	27	14.1		37,894
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No									2	2	5		14	14	14	23	25	14.3		56
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	1	2	3	5	9	16	27	37	20.2		1,528
4		4	-	12	-	0	0.1		No					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	13	25	49	30.8		15,557
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No													5	14	10	43	29	28.6		21
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No										0	1	1	2	5	7	19	65	46.2		528
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No								0	0	0	0	0	1	2	7	21	69	53.4		4,799
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No															11	22	67	55.6		9
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No											1			1	4	19	76	60.4		111
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No													0	0	2	12	85	73.6		1,028
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No																	100	Yes		1
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																14	86	78.6		14
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No																9	91	85.2		142
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No																	100	98.1		52

Total:							37.5	%	3.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.2	%	602,944

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-1.8*-0.2+1.8

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seattle vs San Francisco	+1.8*-0.2-1.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	91	6	2	1	1
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	73	20	7
14		14	-	2	-	0	73	17	7	2	1	1	0			0
		13	-	1	-	2	100
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	61	20	11	4	1	2		1
13		13	-	3	-	0	52	23	11	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0
		12	-	2	-	2	71	29
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	41	25	13	7	9	2	1	1	1	0	0			0
12		12	-	4	-	0	31	21	15	10	7	5	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	22	13	9	22	4	13	9	4	4
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	22	20	15	11	9	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	3	-	3		50	50
11		11	-	5	-	0	14	15	13	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0		0
		10	-	4	-	2	9	19	8	22	6	11	8	2	6	3	3					2		2
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	7	11	11	11	9	9	8	7	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0
10		10	-	6	-	0	5	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	6	8	9	9	5	8	10	8	8	3	6	3	2	5	2	2	1	1	2	2	1		1
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	2	3	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3															33			33						33
9		9	-	7	-	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2	0	3	4	2	7	3	5	6	8	8	7	6	5	5	2	6	6	1	3	2	3	2	1	1	0			0	1
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	0	1	2	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3				20	20	20			20						20
8		8	-	8	-	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2	0	0	1	2	1	4	1	3	2	4	6	4	4	4	3	5	6	7	3	8	6	5	7	4	1	3	3	1	0	0		0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	1	1	0
		6	-	7	-	3						33						33	33
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1
		6	-	8	-	2				1			1	3	1	1	1	2	4	4	3	4	5	6	6	5	3	5	4	7	4	9	6	10	5	3	2	2
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1			0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	7	7	6	5	4	2
		5	-	8	-	3											20								20	20				20							20
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	8	8	8	9	8	7	5
		5	-	9	-	2						1			1		1		1	1	2	1	2	4	3	1	4	7	4	10	4	7	9	10	9	9	6	2
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	5	5	6	8	9	10	11	10	11	7
		4	-	9	-	3																									100
5		5	-	11	-	0		0	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	9	11	13	15	14
		4	-	10	-	2																2	2		4				4	2	9	5	13	11	7	20	9	14
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1								0						0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	4	5	7	10	13	16	17	20
4		4	-	12	-	0										0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	10	14	22	31
		3	-	11	-	2																								10			5		33	14	10	29
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																		0		0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	4	7	12	22	46
3		3	-	13	-	0																			0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	11	22	53
		2	-	12	-	2																										11			11	11	11	56
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																									1		3		3	7	26	60
2		2	-	14	-	0																							0		0	0	0	1	2	5	17	74
		1	-	13	-	2																																100
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																															21	79
1		1	-	15	-	0																													2	1	11	85
0		0	-	16	-	0																														2		98

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3