New England Patriots Playoff Chances 2013

Plays Buffalo, playoff odds up 0.4 to 38%

0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago 19 Cincinnati 17	+0.3
If winner is:HomeTieAway
New England vs Buffalo	+5.8*-0.9-5.8		+0.9-0.6-0.9		-0.9*-0.3+0.9		+0.7*-0.0-0.7
NY Jets vs Tampa Bay	-0.6*+0.7+0.6						-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs Cleveland	-0.3*+0.3+0.3						-0.0*+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Reg Season Champ	100.0*	College Level	100.0*	Average seed
New England vs NY Jets	+5.8-1.6-5.8		+0.9*-0.3-0.9		-0.9*-0.3+0.9		+0.7-0.1-0.7
Buffalo vs Carolina	-0.7*-0.5+0.7						-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs Indianapolis	-0.4*+0.2+0.4
San Diego vs Philadelphia	-0.2*-0.0+0.2
Kansas City vs Dallas	-0.2*-0.1+0.2
Denver vs NY Giants	-0.2*+0.5+0.2		+0.1*+0.4-0.1
Baltimore vs Cleveland							+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the New England finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Reg Season		Chance will finish regular season at seed																College
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Champ		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Level		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		97.4	%	99				1												No		156
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		1
15		15	-	1	-	0	98.5	%	49.4		94				3	1	1	0	0								No		413
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	98.3		39.7		91				7		2										No		58
14		14	-	2	-	0	96.6		37.7		86	1			6	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0				No		3,204	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	93.9		31.3		83	1			7	3	3	1	1	1	0	0					No		342
13		13	-	3	-	0	91.8		27.3		74	4	0		8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		14,744
		12	-	2	-	2	92.9		7.1		71	7			7	7		7									No		14
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	89.7		19.9		66	7	0		10	6	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0			No		1,561
12		12	-	4	-	0	84.7		17.6		55	12	1	0	10	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.0	%	48,144
		11	-	3	-	2	81.9		18.1		57	11			13	1	8	3	3	1	3						No		72
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	81.1		13.1		44	17	2	0	11	7	5	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0	0	No		4,616	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	74.7		10.6		31	21	4	0	11	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0.0		115,107
		10	-	4	-	2	77.2		10.7		35	24	3	0	6	9	8	6	2	1	3	0	1		1		No		206
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	68.8		7.2		20	22	7	1	11	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0.1		10,297
		9	-	4	-	3	80.0		No		20	20	20			20		20									No		5
10		10	-	6	-	0	62.2		5.8		11	19	11	2	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0.2		210,395
		9	-	5	-	2	61.5		4.2		9	22	10	2	9	10	9	7	7	5	3	3	3	1	1		No		382
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	55.9		3.8		5	15	14	4	10	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	0.2		16,739
		8	-	5	-	3	64.3		No			14	29		14	7			7	7	7	7	7				No		14
9		9	-	7	-	0	48.7		2.9		2	10	14	6	9	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	3	2	0.5		298,547
		8	-	6	-	2	50.3		1.7		3	10	12	7	9	9	8	7	8	7	5	3	4	4	3	2	0.5		634
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	41.9		1.7		1	5	11	9	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	0.7		21,484
		7	-	6	-	3	46.2		No			8	8	8	15	8	15	8		8	8	8			8		No		13
8		8	-	8	-	0	35.0		1.2		0	2	9	10	7	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	3	1.3		332,748
		7	-	7	-	2	35.8		0.8		0	3	11	10	6	6	6	9	8	6	7	8	7	4	5	4	1.4		712	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	28.2		0.7		0	1	5	11	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	4	1.7		21,542
		6	-	7	-	3	23.1		No					8	8	8	8	23	8			15	8	8	8		No		13
7		7	-	9	-	0	23.4		0.4		0	0	3	10	5	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	2.9		294,296
		6	-	8	-	2	22.9		0.2			1	2	9	5	7	7	8	6	7	7	10	8	9	8	8	3.1		576	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	17.4		0.3			0	1	8	3	5	5	6	7	8	8	9	9	10	9	9	3.8		16,452
		5	-	8	-	3	14.3		No					7		7		7	7	7	7	14	7	7	14	14	7.1		14
6		6	-	10	-	0	14.0		0.2			0	1	7	3	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	5.8		204,815
		5	-	9	-	2	9.6		No				0	5	2	2	3	6	9	6	12	11	11	10	12	11	5.8		397
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	9.8		0.0				0	5	2	3	3	4	6	7	9	10	11	12	14	15	7.6		9,750	*
5		5	-	11	-	0	7.6		0.0				0	4	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	13	16	20	10.7		110,793
		4	-	10	-	2	4.6		No					2	1	2	2	4	5	4	4	9	18	11	18	20	8.6		174
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	4.8		No				0	2	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	9	11	13	18	23	13.2		4,291	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	3.3		0.0				0	2	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	8	10	14	19	29	17.7		45,677
		3	-	11	-	2	7.8		No							8	3	3	3	6	10	5	14	14	16	18	11.7		77
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	1.3		No					1	0	0	1	2	3	4	4	6	9	13	22	36	22.2		1,474
3		3	-	13	-	0	1.3		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	9	13	21	40	26.7		13,982
		2	-	12	-	2	4.2		No					4						4		4			21	67	33.3		24
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	0.7		No					0		0		2	3	2	3	4	6	13	19	48	32.4		299
2		2	-	14	-	0	0.4		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	4	6	11	20	54	39.3		2,960
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No														20	20		60	60.0		5
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No											2			4	4	13	77	63.8		47
1		1	-	15	-	0	0.3		No					0					0	1	1	2	5	7	17	68	50.8		398
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																14	86	85.7		7
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No													1			2	97	95.0		161

Total:							38.0	%	3.1	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.0	%	1,808,832

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs Buffalo	-1.3+0.2+1.3

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/12	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs NY Jets	-1.3*+0.2+1.3
Baltimore vs Cleveland	*-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	97	3
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	100
15		15	-	1	-	0	49	23	9	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	1	2			0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	40	19	19	7	7	5		2	2
14		14	-	2	-	0	38	19	11	8	6	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0		0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	31	15	15	10	9	5	2	3	1	2	1	2	1	1	1		0	0	1	0
13		13	-	3	-	0	27	17	11	9	7	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		12	-	2	-	2	7	21	21	14	14	7			7					7
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	20	16	11	9	8	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0
12		12	-	4	-	0	18	13	10	9	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	18	7	8	17	8	7	7	1	6	6	1	4			1	1	1	1	1	1		1
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	13	10	10	9	8	6	6	6	4	4	3	3	2	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	10	8	8	7	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	11	6	9	10	5	7	6	3	5	8	2	5	1	5	3	1	1	2	0	0	2	1	1				0		1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	7	8	8	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3			20		20	20					20		20
10		10	-	6	-	0	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	4	5	9	5	4	5	4	5	6	7	5	5	5	3	2	3	2	4	2	3	2	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3		7	7		7				7	21	7				7				7	7	7		7				7
9		9	-	7	-	0	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
		8	-	6	-	2	2	3	4	4	6	3	5	5	3	5	3	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1
		7	-	6	-	3						8	8	15			8	8	15			8			15			8								8
8		8	-	8	-	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	1
		7	-	7	-	2	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	4	4	2	3	5	4	5	4	3	4	3	4	4	3	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	3	1
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2
		6	-	7	-	3						8				8			15		15		8		15	8					8		8	8
7		7	-	9	-	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
		6	-	8	-	2	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	2	2	5	3	4	4	2	2	4	5	4	3	4	3	5	4	5	5	6	5	4	4	2	3
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4
		5	-	8	-	3			7									7	7		7					21			7	7	7	7				14		7
6		6	-	10	-	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6
		5	-	9	-	2			0	0	1	2	1		1	2	1	2	1	2	3	4	4	4	5	3	5	4	7	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	7	6
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	8	7	8
5		5	-	11	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	10	11
		4	-	10	-	2							1	1			1	3	1	1	1	3	2	2	1	2	4	3	5	5	7	7	9	6	6	9	13	9
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	6	7	7	7	10	11	13
4		4	-	12	-	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	5	6	7	9	10	13	18
		3	-	11	-	2										1	3	4				3	5		4	3	4	5		4	5	5	12	8	9	10	4	12
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1				0		0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	2	2	3	4	5	7	6	10	13	15	22
3		3	-	13	-	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	4	4	6	7	9	11	16	27
		2	-	12	-	2													4								4						4	8	8	21	17	33
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1											0				1	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	2	3	1	5	6	4	12	12	15	32
2		2	-	14	-	0									0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	5	5	8	12	18	39
		1	-	13	-	2																											20		20			60
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																					2		2				2	6	4	2	17	64
1		1	-	15	-	0																	0		0	0		1	1	1	2	0	4	4	5	11	20	51
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																														14		86
0		0	-	16	-	0																								1					1	1	2	95

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3