SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sometimes I
forget the point

Green Bay Packers Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 2.5 to 20.8%

4-5-1 .450

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 11/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle 27 Green Bay 24	-12.4		-1.1
Detroit 20 Carolina 19	+0.9
Washington 21 Houston 23	+0.7		+0.0
New Orleans 48 Philadelphia 7	+0.6		+0.1
Arizona 21 Oakland 23			+0.1
NY Giants 38 Tampa Bay 35			+0.0
Chicago 25 Minnesota 20			-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/22	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Minnesota vs Green Bay	-13.7*-1.4+13.8		-1.3-0.2+1.3
New Orleans vs Atlanta	+0.6*-0.4-0.6		+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Detroit vs Chicago	+0.5*+1.2-0.5		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Dallas vs Washington	-0.5*-1.8+0.5		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs NY Giants	-0.3*-0.3+0.3		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Tampa Bay vs San Francisco	-0.2*-4.0+0.2		-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Carolina vs Seattle			+0.0+0.1-0.0
LA Chargers vs Arizona			+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Green Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

10	.5	6	-	0	-	0	In		1	12	60	9	17	2											10,554
10		5	-	0	-	1	In				49	28	21	2											43
9	.5	5	-	1	-	0	96.1	%		0	21	17	32	26	4	0	0								63,030
9		4	-	1	-	1	72.5				5	23	10	34	20	5	2								258
8	.5	4	-	2	-	0	42.7				1	5	7	31	37	17	3	0	0	0					156,807
8		3	-	2	-	1	4.4					0	1	4	14	28	32	18	3	0					523
7	.5	3	-	3	-	0	0.8					0	0	1	7	22	35	25	9	1	0	0			209,640
		2	-	2	-	2	Out										100								1
7		2	-	3	-	1	Out									1	8	24	31	25	11	0			502
6	.5	2	-	4	-	0	Out								0	0	2	11	29	35	18	4	0	0	157,671
6		1	-	4	-	1	Out												5	21	32	28	12	1	248
5	.5	1	-	5	-	0	Out										0	0	1	8	27	39	22	4	63,577
5		0	-	5	-	1	Out														16	24	38	22	55
4	.5	0	-	6	-	0	Out													0	2	14	43	41	10,419

Total:							20.8	%	0	0	3	3	5	10	11	11	12	11	10	9	7	5	3	1	673,328

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 11/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
Seattle 27 Green Bay 24	+2.3
New Orleans 48 Philadelphia 7	-0.1
LA Chargers 22 Denver 23	+0.1
Chicago 25 Minnesota 20	+0.1
Jacksonville 16 Pittsburgh 20	-0.1
Arizona 21 Oakland 23	-0.1
Indianapolis 38 Tennessee 10	+0.0
Washington 21 Houston 23	-0.0
Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 21	+0.0
Atlanta 19 Dallas 22	+0.0
NY Giants 38 Tampa Bay 35	-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
LA Rams vs Kansas City	-0.0*-0.3+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/22	100.0*	Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Green Bay	+2.5-0.2-2.5
Tampa Bay vs San Francisco	+0.0+0.5-0.0
Carolina vs Seattle	-0.0-0.3+0.0
Denver vs Pittsburgh	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Detroit vs Chicago	-0.0+0.2+0.0
New Orleans vs Atlanta	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Baltimore vs Oakland	+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Houston vs Tennessee	-0.1*-0.6+0.1
NY Jets vs New England	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Dallas vs Washington	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Philadelphia vs NY Giants	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
LA Chargers vs Arizona	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

10	.5	6	-	0	-	0		1	1	11	36	24	8	1	12	5	2
10		5	-	0	-	1					14	35	16	12	12	9	2
9	.5	5	-	1	-	0				0	2	19	9	8	6	26	19	6	4	0	0	0
9		4	-	1	-	1						5	7	16	2	9	12	21	17	7	3	0
8	.5	4	-	2	-	0						1	0	4	0	7	3	28	12	20	16	8	2	0	0	0
8		3	-	2	-	1								0		1		4	1	6	20	22	23	17	6	2	0	0
7	.5	3	-	3	-	0								0		0		1	0	0	1	5	13	23	26	19	9	3	1	0	0
		2	-	2	-	2																		100
7		2	-	3	-	1																0	1	2	9	14	21	22	16	10	5	1
6	.5	2	-	4	-	0																		0	0	1	4	12	23	27	20	9	3	0	0	0
6		1	-	4	-	1																					0	1	3	9	22	23	24	13	5	1
5	.5	1	-	5	-	0																						0	0	1	3	12	24	30	21	8	1	0
5		0	-	5	-	1																										5	4	18	31	18	15	9
4	.5	0	-	6	-	0																										0	0	4	16	34	35	11

Total:								0	0	0	1	2	1	2	1	4	2	7	3	5	4	3	5	7	8	6	4	4	6	6	5	3	3	3	2	1	1	0