Detroit Lions Playoff Chances 2018 50/50
Beat Carolina 20-19, playoff odds up 4.5 to 9.6%
4-6-0 .400
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 11/15 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Detroit 20 Carolina 19 | +3.8 | +1.0 | ||
| New Orleans 48 Philadelphia 7 | +0.1 | |||
| Arizona 21 Oakland 23 | +0.1 | |||
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||||
| Week of 11/22 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Detroit vs Chicago | +7.0*-2.7-6.9 | +1.2+0.6-1.2 | ||
| New Orleans vs Atlanta | +0.5*+1.6-0.5 | +0.1*+0.1-0.1 | ||
| Minnesota vs Green Bay | -0.5*-0.0+0.5 | +0.0*-0.1-0.0 | ||
| Dallas vs Washington | -0.3*-0.8+0.3 | -0.0*+0.1+0.0 | ||
| LA Chargers vs Arizona | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | |||
| Tampa Bay vs San Francisco | -0.0*+0.2+0.0 | |||
| Carolina vs Seattle | +0.0*-0.2-0.0 | |||
| Philadelphia vs NY Giants | -0.0*-0.1+0.0 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Detroit finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | Count | |||
| 10 | 6 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 99.6 | % | 0 | 8 | 39 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10,469 | ||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 98.0 | 18 | 16 | 36 | 28 | 2 | 50 | |||||||||||||
| 9 | 5 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 71.3 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 33 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 63,076 | |||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 40.9 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 38 | 19 | 3 | 269 | |||||||||||
| 8 | 4 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 5.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 30 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157,336 | |||||||
| 7 | .5 | 3 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 35 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 483 | |||||||||||
| 7 | 3 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 34 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 210,431 | |||||||
| 2 | - | 2 | - | 2 | Out | 100 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 1 | Out | 0 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 32 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 501 | ||||||||||
| 6 | 2 | - | 4 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 34 | 30 | 12 | 2 | 157,037 | |||||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 1 | - | 4 | - | 1 | Out | 0 | 9 | 26 | 39 | 22 | 5 | 259 | ||||||||||||
| 5 | 1 | - | 5 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 41 | 28 | 62,948 | |||||||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 0 | - | 5 | - | 1 | Out | 3 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 43 | 40 | |||||||||||||
| 4 | 0 | - | 6 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 2 | 20 | 78 | 10,428 | |||||||||||||||
| Total: | 9.6 | % | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 673,328 | |||||||
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 11/15 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Detroit 20 Carolina 19 | -2.0 | |
| Seattle 27 Green Bay 24 | +0.1 | |
| Jacksonville 16 Pittsburgh 20 | -0.1 | |
| LA Chargers 22 Denver 23 | +0.1 | |
| Atlanta 19 Dallas 22 | -0.1 | |
| New Orleans 48 Philadelphia 7 | -0.1 | |
| Arizona 21 Oakland 23 | +0.1 | |
| Baltimore 24 Cincinnati 21 | +0.1 | |
| Indianapolis 38 Tennessee 10 | *+0.0 | |
| Washington 21 Houston 23 | +0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| LA Rams vs Kansas City | -0.1*-0.1+0.1 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| Week of 11/22 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Detroit vs Chicago | -2.2*-0.3+2.2 | |
| Baltimore vs Oakland | +0.0-0.6-0.0 | |
| Tampa Bay vs San Francisco | +0.2*-0.2-0.2 | |
| NY Jets vs New England | +0.1+0.2-0.1 | |
| New Orleans vs Atlanta | -0.1*+0.0+0.1 | |
| Buffalo vs Jacksonville | -0.1*-0.1+0.1 | |
| Indianapolis vs Miami | +0.1*+0.4-0.1 | |
| Denver vs Pittsburgh | +0.1*-0.4-0.1 | |
| Houston vs Tennessee | -0.1*+0.1+0.1 | |
| LA Chargers vs Arizona | +0.1*+0.2-0.1 | |
| Dallas vs Washington | -0.1*+0.1+0.1 | |
| Carolina vs Seattle | -0.0*+0.4+0.0 | |
| Cincinnati vs Cleveland | -0.0*+0.3+0.0 | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |
| 10 | 6 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 31 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 32 | 16 | 12 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 5 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 24 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 11 | 18 | 18 | 10 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 4 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 3 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 23 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | 3 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 21 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
| 2 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 26 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | 2 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 23 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 1 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 32 | 17 | 12 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | 1 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 28 | 25 | 13 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 0 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 33 | 30 | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | 0 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 41 | 32 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:00 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
