River-PI Playoff Chances 2016

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.06 to 0.2%

11 points 2-6-5

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
River-PI 0 ASA 0	-0.2		-0.0		-0.6		-0.0
Botafogo-PB 2 Remo 0	-0.1
Confiança 1 ABC 1	+0.1				+0.1		+0.0
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0					+0.9		-0.1
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0					+5.1		-0.2
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1					-2.4
Macaé 2 Guarani 4					-1.2
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3					-0.3

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB	+0.6-0.1-0.2		+0.0NoNo		-20.3-1.8+9.1		+0.6-0.0-0.2
Remo vs Confiança	-0.0+0.0+0.1				-1.4+0.2+2.3		+0.1+0.0-0.1
ASA vs América-RN					-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT					-1.1*+0.1+1.4		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Portuguesa vs Juventude					+6.8+0.7-3.6
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé					-3.3+0.5+6.1
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP					+0.8*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the River-PI finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP		W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

26		5	-	0	-	0	65.2	%	1.9	%	0	2	18	45	30	4	0				No		19,618
24		4	-	0	-	1	8.8		0.0			0	0	8	39	40	11	1			No		91,988
23		4	-	1	-	0	0.9		No				0	1	16	45	32	6	0		No		150,734
22		3	-	0	-	2	0.0		No					0	3	25	47	24	1	0	No		187,030
21		3	-	1	-	1	Out		No						0	11	41	42	6	0	0.0	%	610,638
20		3	-	2	-	0	Out		No						0	2	21	54	22	2	0.0		496,237
		2	-	0	-	3	Out		No						0	1	15	57	25	2	0.0		187,844
19		2	-	1	-	2	Out		No							0	5	42	43	9	0.4		916,687
18		2	-	2	-	1	Out		No							0	1	24	52	23	2.6		1,484,659
		1	-	0	-	4	Out		No								0	24	52	24	2.8		93,966
17		2	-	3	-	0	Out		No								0	8	46	45	9.0		798,001
		1	-	1	-	3	Out		No								0	7	43	50	11.0		606,099
16		1	-	2	-	2	Out		No									2	26	72	26.0		1,467,914
		0	-	0	-	5	Out		No									3	29	68	25.0		18,439
15		1	-	3	-	1	Out		No									0	13	86	49.6		1,575,030
		0	-	1	-	4	Out		No									0	12	88	51.0		149,268
14		1	-	4	-	0	Out		No										5	95	68.4		630,323
		0	-	2	-	3	Out		No										2	98	74.0		479,507
11	-13						Out		No											100	93.1		1,583,378	*

Total:							0.2	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	14	23	55	31.9	%	11,547,360

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

26	5	-	0	-	0		0		2	0	18	1	44	6	14	12	3	0	0
24	4	-	0	-	1				0		0	0	8	0	5	24	36	21	5	0	0
23	4	-	1	-	0						0		1	0	1	8	27	38	22	4	0	0
22	3	-	0	-	2								0		0	1	6	28	42	21	2	0	0
21	3	-	1	-	1											0	1	12	37	39	10	1	0	0
20	3	-	2	-	0											0	0	2	17	46	28	7	1	0
	2	-	0	-	3												0	1	12	47	32	8	1	0
19	2	-	1	-	2													0	3	28	41	22	5	0
18	2	-	2	-	1													0	0	11	34	36	16	3
	1	-	0	-	4														0	11	33	36	17	3
17	2	-	3	-	0														0	3	18	38	31	9	0
	1	-	1	-	3														0	2	16	37	34	11	0
16	1	-	2	-	2															0	5	25	44	26	0
	0	-	0	-	5															1	6	25	43	25	0
15	1	-	3	-	1															0	1	10	39	49	0
	0	-	1	-	4															0	1	9	39	51	0
14	1	-	4	-	0																0	4	28	68	1
	0	-	2	-	3																0	2	24	73	1
13	0	-	3	-	2																	0	12	85	2
12	0	-	4	-	1																	0	3	91	6
11	0	-	5	-	0																			86	14

Total:							0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	9	13	17	22	31	1