Confiança Playoff Chances 2016

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.07 to 1%

13 points 2-4-7

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Confiança 1 ABC 1	-0.8		-0.1		-0.8		-0.1
River-PI 0 ASA 0	+0.2				+0.1		+0.0
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0	+0.1				+0.3		-0.1
Botafogo-PB 2 Remo 0	-0.1
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0	+0.1				+2.9		-0.2
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1					-1.3
Macaé 2 Guarani 4					-0.7
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3					-0.1

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Remo vs Confiança	-0.9-0.6+2.2		-0.1-0.1+0.2		+5.2-1.1-8.3		-0.4-0.1+0.7
ASA vs América-RN	-0.2+0.2+0.1						+0.1+0.0-0.1
ABC vs Fortaleza	-0.2+0.1+0.1
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB	+0.2+0.1-0.1				+2.4+0.2-1.0		-0.2+0.0+0.1
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT	-0.1+0.1+0.0				-0.7+0.1+0.9		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Portuguesa vs Juventude					+3.4+0.3-1.8
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé					-1.6+0.2+3.0
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP					+0.2*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Confiança finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP	W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

28	5	-	0	-	0	94.4	%	21.7	%	2	20	44	29	5	0					No		28,554
26	4	-	0	-	1	39.1		0.4		0	0	7	32	44	16	1	0			No		127,297
25	4	-	1	-	0	15.4		0.0			0	1	14	42	36	7	0			No		199,439
24	3	-	0	-	2	1.8		No				0	2	22	52	22	2	0		No		239,389
23	3	-	1	-	1	0.1		No				0	0	5	35	45	14	1	0	No		742,588
22	3	-	2	-	0	0.0		No					0	1	16	46	34	4	0	No		572,932
	2	-	0	-	3	0.0		No					0	1	19	48	30	2	0	No		221,131
21	2	-	1	-	2	Out		No						0	4	32	52	12	0	0.0	%	1,027,152
20	2	-	2	-	1	Out		No						0	0	11	53	33	2	0.0		1,574,599
	1	-	0	-	4	Out		No							1	14	55	30	1	0.0		102,003
19	2	-	3	-	0	Out		No							0	3	39	51	7	0.3		804,016
	1	-	1	-	3	Out		No							0	3	41	50	6	0.3		624,791
18	1	-	2	-	2	Out		No								0	20	60	20	2.3		1,427,752
	0	-	0	-	5	Out		No								0	22	62	17	2.1		18,476
17	1	-	3	-	1	Out		No								0	7	53	41	8.9		1,445,957
	0	-	1	-	4	Out		No									7	57	36	7.9		141,610
16	1	-	4	-	0	Out		No									2	38	60	21.7		546,058
	0	-	2	-	3	Out		No									2	38	61	22.0		427,502
15	0	-	3	-	2	Out		No									0	19	81	47.2		646,616
14	0	-	4	-	1	Out		No										5	95	71.3		484,816
13	0	-	5	-	0	Out		No											100	87.9		144,682

Total:						1.0	%	0.1	%	0	0	0	1	2	6	12	24	32	24	10.1	%	11,547,360

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

28	5	-	0	-	0		2	0	20	1	42	7	22	3	2	0	0
26	4	-	0	-	1		0		0		7	0	32	4	17	24	12	2	0
25	4	-	1	-	0				0		1	0	14	1	11	29	30	12	2	0	0
24	3	-	0	-	2						0		2	0	1	12	34	37	13	1	0
23	3	-	1	-	1						0		0	0	0	2	13	36	37	11	1	0	0
22	3	-	2	-	0								0		0	0	3	19	43	30	4	0	0
	2	-	0	-	3								0		0	0	3	21	45	28	3	0	0
21	2	-	1	-	2											0	0	4	29	48	17	2	0	0
20	2	-	2	-	1												0	0	8	43	37	10	1	0
	1	-	0	-	4												0	1	11	45	35	8	1	0
19	2	-	3	-	0													0	2	25	45	23	5	0
	1	-	1	-	3													0	2	27	45	22	4	0
18	1	-	2	-	2														0	9	35	38	16	2	0
	0	-	0	-	5														0	9	37	37	15	2
17	1	-	3	-	1														0	2	18	39	32	9	0
	0	-	1	-	4															2	20	40	30	8	0
16	1	-	4	-	0															0	7	28	43	22	0
	0	-	2	-	3															0	7	28	43	22	0
15	0	-	3	-	2															0	1	11	40	47	0
14	0	-	4	-	1																0	3	26	70	1
13	0	-	5	-	0																	0	12	86	2

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	5	10	18	20	18	14	10	0