Ypiranga-RS Playoff Chances 2016

Did not play, playoff odds down 3 to 36.9%

20 points 6-5-2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	+8.6		+2.3		No		+0.4
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	-2.6		-1.9				-0.1
Juventude 1 Boa 1	+1.2		+1.0				+0.0
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	-0.1		-0.4
Tombense-MG 4 Mogi Mirim 0			+0.1				-0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Ypiranga-RS vs Tombense-MG	+22.7-5.6-19.0		+8.2-3.0-6.1				+0.9-0.2-0.7
Portuguesa vs Juventude	+4.5+2.1-3.3		+0.8+0.5-0.7				+0.2+0.1-0.1
Boa vs Guarani	-3.6+0.1+2.1		-1.3+0.5+0.5				-0.1+0.0+0.1
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP	+4.0+1.7-1.5		+3.6+1.9-1.5				+0.2+0.1-0.1
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	-2.0+1.5+2.3		-0.2+0.1+0.2				-0.1+0.1+0.1

Chances based on how well the Ypiranga-RS finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP	W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

35	5	-	0	-	0	In		98.9	%	54	45	1								No		65,647
33	4	-	0	-	1	100.0	%	85.3		17	68	14	0	0						No		257,244
32	4	-	1	-	0	99.9		61.0		4	56	36	3	0						No		352,062
31	3	-	0	-	2	99.3		39.7		1	39	47	12	1	0					No		405,549
30	3	-	1	-	1	96.2		18.3		0	18	49	29	4	0					No		1,100,205
29	3	-	2	-	0	79.6		4.3		0	4	29	46	19	1	0				No		735,661
	2	-	0	-	3	77.5		4.4		0	4	29	44	20	2	0				No		316,637
28	2	-	1	-	2	56.5		1.0			1	14	42	36	7	0				No		1,269,358
27	2	-	2	-	1	26.7		0.1			0	3	24	48	23	2				No		1,679,874
	1	-	0	-	4	20.5		0.0			0	2	18	46	30	4				No		122,334
26	2	-	3	-	0	6.1		0.0			0	0	6	35	47	12	0			No		732,121
	1	-	1	-	3	6.9		0.0			0	0	7	34	45	13	0			No		646,317
25	1	-	2	-	2	1.4		No				0	1	19	51	29	0			No		1,265,573
	0	-	0	-	5	0.6		No				0	1	14	52	33	0			No		18,340
24	1	-	3	-	1	0.1		No					0	5	41	53	0	0		No		1,086,577
	0	-	1	-	4	0.1		No					0	4	37	58	0			No		121,105
23	1	-	4	-	0	0.0		No					0	1	21	75	3	0		No		346,257
	0	-	2	-	3	0.0		No					0	1	21	76	2	0		No		313,736
22	0	-	3	-	2	Out		No						0	9	84	7	0		No		399,049
21	0	-	4	-	1	Out		No							2	78	20	1		No		250,470
20	0	-	5	-	0	Out		No							0	62	35	3		0.0	%	63,244

Total:						36.9	%	8.0	%	1	7	12	17	20	22	20	1	0		0.0	%	11,547,360

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	-0.9
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	+0.1
Juventude 1 Boa 1	-0.1
Tombense-MG 4 Mogi Mirim 0	+0.0
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0	-0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ypiranga-RS vs Tombense-MG	-1.6+0.4+1.4
Portuguesa vs Juventude	-0.2-0.1+0.2
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP	-0.3-0.1+0.1
Boa vs Guarani	+0.2-0.0-0.1
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	+0.1-0.1-0.1
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT	+0.1-0.0-0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

35	5	-	0	-	0	52	2	45		1
33	4	-	0	-	1	13	4	68	1	14	0	0		0
32	4	-	1	-	0	3	2	55	2	36	0	3		0
31	3	-	0	-	2	0	1	31	7	47	1	12	0	1	0
30	3	-	1	-	1	0	0	13	5	48	2	29	0	4	0
29	3	-	2	-	0	0	0	2	2	25	4	46	0	19	1	0
	2	-	0	-	3		0	1	3	21	7	43	1	20	2	0
28	2	-	1	-	2			0	1	7	6	37	5	35	8	0	0	0
27	2	-	2	-	1			0	0	1	2	18	6	47	24	3	0	0
	1	-	0	-	4				0	0	2	11	7	43	31	6	0	0
26	2	-	3	-	0				0	0	0	3	3	31	45	16	2	0	0
	1	-	1	-	3				0	0	0	2	5	26	41	21	5	1	0
25	1	-	2	-	2						0	0	1	10	34	36	16	3	0	0
	0	-	0	-	5						0	0	1	5	26	38	23	7	1	0
24	1	-	3	-	1							0	0	2	16	37	32	12	1	0
	0	-	1	-	4							0	0	1	8	28	38	21	4	0	0
23	1	-	4	-	0								0	0	3	17	40	32	8	0	0
	0	-	2	-	3								0	0	1	10	31	39	17	1	0	0
22	0	-	3	-	2									0	0	2	17	41	32	7	1	0	0
21	0	-	4	-	1										0	0	6	30	43	18	3	0	0
20	0	-	5	-	0											0	1	11	38	35	13	2	0	0

Total:						1	0	6	1	11	2	15	2	18	15	11	8	6	3	1	0	0	0	0