Macaé Playoff Chances 2016

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.02 to 0.02%

11 points 3-8-2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	-0.2		+4.4		-0.1
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1			-2.0		+0.1
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3			-0.4
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0			+5.7
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0			+0.6
Confiança 1 ABC 1			+0.2
River-PI 0 ASA 0			+0.1

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	Out-0.0+0.1		+9.4-1.1-17.8		-0.1-0.0+0.3
Portuguesa vs Juventude			+5.6+0.3-2.9		-0.2+0.0+0.1
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP			+1.0*-0.0-0.2
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB			+7.2+0.7-3.3
Remo vs Confiança			-1.4+0.3+2.2
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT			-1.3+0.1+1.7
ASA vs América-RN			-0.1*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Macaé finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP	W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

26	5	-	0	-	0	16.2	%	0.0	%		0	1	15	45	33	5	0			No		15,423
24	4	-	0	-	1	0.2		No				0	0	8	39	44	9	0		No		78,102
23	4	-	1	-	0	0.0		No					0	1	14	53	32	0		No		133,432
22	3	-	0	-	2	Out		No						0	4	39	56	1		No		169,452
21	3	-	1	-	1	Out		No							0	20	76	4		No		576,928
20	3	-	2	-	0	Out		No							0	7	85	8		0.0	%	486,506
	2	-	0	-	3	Out		No							0	5	85	11		0.0		181,240
19	2	-	1	-	2	Out		No								1	84	16	0	0.1		909,230
18	2	-	2	-	1	Out		No									74	26	0	0.8		1,520,246
	1	-	0	-	4	Out		No									68	32		1.7		93,258
17	2	-	3	-	0	Out		No									64	36	0	3.9		838,956
	1	-	1	-	3	Out		No									57	43	0	6.1		617,965
16	1	-	2	-	2	Out		No									48	52	0	15.1		1,513,005
	0	-	0	-	5	Out		No									42	58	0	20.8		18,529
15	1	-	3	-	1	Out		No									33	67	0	31.0		1,637,414
	0	-	1	-	4	Out		No									25	74	0	40.3		149,391
14	1	-	4	-	0	Out		No									21	78	1	53.5		653,738
	0	-	2	-	3	Out		No									15	83	1	61.0		476,205
13	0	-	3	-	2	Out		No									9	87	4	77.4		744,444
12	0	-	4	-	1	Out		No									3	87	10	90.7		566,597
11	0	-	5	-	0	Out		No									0	74	26	98.4		167,299

Total:						0.0	%	0.0	%		0	0	0	0	1	3	48	47	1	24.1	%	11,547,360

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

26	5	-	0	-	0				0	0	1	7	8	40	34	9	1	0
24	4	-	0	-	1						0	0	0	2	16	33	31	14	3	0	0
23	4	-	1	-	0								0	0	2	12	31	35	17	3	0	0
22	3	-	0	-	2									0	0	1	10	29	38	20	3	0	0
21	3	-	1	-	1										0	0	2	13	36	38	10	1	0
20	3	-	2	-	0											0	0	2	18	47	27	5	0	0
	2	-	0	-	3											0	0	1	14	43	33	8	1	0
19	2	-	1	-	2												0	0	3	28	44	21	3	0
18	2	-	2	-	1													0	0	13	40	36	10	1
	1	-	0	-	4														0	9	35	39	15	2
17	2	-	3	-	0														0	3	24	44	25	4	0
	1	-	1	-	3														0	2	19	42	30	6	0
16	1	-	2	-	2															0	7	34	43	15	0
	0	-	0	-	5															0	4	28	47	21	0
15	1	-	3	-	1															0	2	20	47	31	0
	0	-	1	-	4															0	1	14	45	40	0
14	1	-	4	-	0															0	0	8	39	53	1
	0	-	2	-	3															0	0	5	34	60	1
13	0	-	3	-	2																0	1	21	74	3
12	0	-	4	-	1																	0	9	82	9
11	0	-	5	-	0																	0	2	73	26

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	9	15	21	24	23	1