Boa Esporte Clube Playoff Chances 2016

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.8 to 74.8%

22 points 6-3-4

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	-2.1		-4.6		-0.1
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	-1.4		-0.6		-0.0
Juventude 1 Boa 1	-1.4		-5.3		-0.1
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	-0.1		-1.5		-0.1
Tombense-MG 4 Mogi Mirim 0	-0.1		+0.3

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Average seed
Boa vs Guarani	+16.2-0.6-9.6		+22.9-3.4-11.9		+0.8-0.1-0.5
Portuguesa vs Juventude	+3.5+2.2-2.9		+2.1+1.6-1.9		+0.1+0.1-0.1
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	-2.1+1.5+2.5		-0.5+0.4+0.5		-0.1+0.1+0.1
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP	+3.2+1.7-1.3		+8.7+5.7-4.0		+0.2+0.1-0.1
Ypiranga-RS vs Tombense-MG	-1.1+2.6-0.9		+0.4+2.2-2.1		-0.0+0.1-0.1

Chances based on how well the Boa finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP	W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D	Count

37	5	-	0	-	0	In		100.0	%	77	23	0								No	161,224
35	4	-	0	-	1	In		96.3		43	53	4	0							No	537,249
34	4	-	1	-	0	In		90.0		20	70	10	0							No	612,082
33	3	-	0	-	2	100.0	%	76.3		12	65	23	1	0						No	713,369
32	3	-	1	-	1	99.9		53.4		3	51	41	5	0	0					No	1,578,533
31	3	-	2	-	0	99.4		38.2		0	38	50	12	1	0					No	846,735
	2	-	0	-	3	99.6		33.6		1	33	54	12	0	0					No	462,702
30	2	-	1	-	2	94.7		13.6		0	14	49	32	5	0	0				No	1,501,135
29	2	-	2	-	1	79.6		4.7		0	5	31	44	18	2	0				No	1,564,385
	1	-	0	-	4	80.3		3.6			4	31	46	18	2	0				No	148,002
28	1	-	1	-	3	55.8		0.7			1	13	42	36	8	0				No	624,111
	2	-	3	-	0	59.2		1.2			1	16	42	33	7	0				No	521,502
27	1	-	2	-	2	24.7		0.1			0	3	22	45	27	4				No	947,125
	0	-	0	-	5	22.3		0.0			0	2	20	47	27	3				No	18,517
26	1	-	3	-	1	7.9		0.0			0	0	7	34	44	15	0			No	615,436
	0	-	1	-	4	6.9		0.0			0	0	7	33	46	14	0			No	95,430
25	0	-	2	-	3	1.2		No				0	1	16	49	34	0			No	188,330
	1	-	4	-	0	1.6		No				0	2	17	49	32	0	0		No	141,747
24	0	-	3	-	2	0.1		No					0	4	35	60	1	0		No	177,403
23	0	-	4	-	1	0.0		No					0	1	17	78	4	0		No	78,039
22	0	-	5	-	0	Out		No						0	6	84	9	0		No	14,304

Total:						74.8	%	29.4	%	5	24	26	19	13	8	4	0	0		No	11,547,360

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Juventude 1 Boa 1	+0.3
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	+0.2
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	+0.1
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	+0.1

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Lottery seed
Boa vs Guarani	-1.6+0.2+0.9
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP	-0.4-0.2+0.2
Portuguesa vs Juventude	-0.2-0.1+0.2
Ypiranga-RS vs Tombense-MG	+0.0-0.2+0.1
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	+0.1-0.1-0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

37	5	-	0	-	0	76	1	23		0
35	4	-	0	-	1	40	3	53	0	4		0
34	4	-	1	-	0	16	3	70	0	10		0
33	3	-	0	-	2	9	3	63	1	23	0	1		0
32	3	-	1	-	1	1	1	47	3	41	0	5		0	0
31	3	-	2	-	0	0	0	31	7	49	1	12	0	1	0
	2	-	0	-	3	0	1	25	8	52	1	12	0	0	0
30	2	-	1	-	2	0	0	8	5	46	3	32	0	5	0	0
29	2	-	2	-	1	0	0	2	3	24	7	43	1	18	2	0
	1	-	0	-	4			1	3	20	12	43	3	18	2	0
28	1	-	1	-	3			0	1	6	7	35	7	35	9	0	0
	2	-	3	-	0			0	1	9	7	38	4	33	8	0	0	0
27	1	-	2	-	2			0	0	1	2	14	7	42	28	5	0	0	0
	0	-	0	-	5				0	0	2	9	10	42	29	6	1	0
26	1	-	3	-	1				0	0	0	3	5	26	40	21	4	0	0
	0	-	1	-	4				0	0	0	1	5	21	39	24	7	1	0
25	0	-	2	-	3						0	0	1	7	27	37	22	6	1	0
	1	-	4	-	0					0	0	0	1	10	33	36	16	3	0	0
24	0	-	3	-	2							0	0	1	9	29	37	20	3	0
23	0	-	4	-	1								0	0	1	10	32	38	16	2	0
22	0	-	5	-	0										0	2	17	41	32	8	1	0

Total:						5	1	22	3	24	3	18	2	12	7	3	2	1	0	0	0	0