Cuiabá-MT Playoff Chances 2016

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.09 to 2%

13 points 3-6-4

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0	+0.9		+0.1		-19.2		+0.6
Botafogo-PB 2 Remo 0	-0.2
Confiança 1 ABC 1					+0.3
River-PI 0 ASA 0					+0.3
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0					+0.7		-0.1
Macaé 2 Guarani 4					-1.2
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1					-0.9
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3					-0.3

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT	-1.7-0.9+3.1		-0.1-0.1+0.2		+5.1-0.2-6.5		-0.6-0.1+0.8
Remo vs Confiança	-0.3+0.2+0.4				-0.7+0.1+1.2		+0.1+0.0-0.2
ASA vs América-RN	-0.4+0.3+0.3						+0.1+0.0-0.1
ABC vs Fortaleza	-0.4+0.1+0.2
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB	+0.2+0.0-0.1		+0.1+0.0-0.0		+2.1+0.1-0.9		-0.2+0.0+0.1
Portuguesa vs Juventude					+2.6*-0.0-1.2
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé					-1.1*-0.0+2.3
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP					+0.2*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Cuiabá-MT finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP	W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

28	5	-	0	-	0	98.3	%	28.4	%	3	26	48	21	2	0					No		33,462
26	4	-	0	-	1	69.7		1.7		0	2	20	48	28	3	0				No		144,025
25	4	-	1	-	0	28.1		0.1			0	3	25	48	22	2	0			No		218,162
24	3	-	0	-	2	12.1		0.0			0	1	11	44	36	7	0	0		No		259,531
23	3	-	1	-	1	1.1		No				0	1	18	48	29	4	0		No		785,843
22	3	-	2	-	0	0.0		No					0	3	27	48	21	1	0	No		593,356
	2	-	0	-	3	0.1		No					0	5	32	45	17	1		No		232,619
21	2	-	1	-	2	0.0		No					0	1	13	45	37	4	0	No		1,055,025
20	2	-	2	-	1	Out		No						0	2	25	56	16	0	0.0	%	1,588,007
	1	-	0	-	4	Out		No						0	2	21	59	19	0	0.0		104,076
19	2	-	3	-	0	Out		No							0	7	51	38	3	0.1		793,192
	1	-	1	-	3	Out		No							0	8	52	37	3	0.1		625,037
18	1	-	2	-	2	Out		No							0	2	35	53	10	1.2		1,410,198
	0	-	0	-	5	Out		No								0	31	57	12	1.4		18,659
17	1	-	3	-	1	Out		No								0	16	58	26	5.0		1,401,075
	0	-	1	-	4	Out		No									16	60	25	5.5		139,093
16	1	-	4	-	0	Out		No									5	48	47	13.3		522,089
	0	-	2	-	3	Out		No									5	49	45	16.4		414,953
15	0	-	3	-	2	Out		No									1	31	68	39.0		615,887
14	0	-	4	-	1	Out		No									0	13	87	62.0		456,593
13	0	-	5	-	0	Out		No										1	99	80.2		136,478

Total:						2.0	%	0.1	%	0	0	0	1	4	8	14	27	28	17	7.5	%	11,547,360

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

28	5	-	0	-	0		3	0	26	4	45	8	13	1	0	0
26	4	-	0	-	1		0		2	0	20	1	47	6	12	10	2	0	0
25	4	-	1	-	0				0		3	0	25	4	18	29	17	4	0	0
24	3	-	0	-	2				0		1	0	11	0	6	26	35	17	3	0	0
23	3	-	1	-	1						0		1	0	1	9	29	39	19	3	0	0
22	3	-	2	-	0								0		0	1	8	31	41	17	1	0	0
	2	-	0	-	3								0		0	1	9	33	40	16	1	0
21	2	-	1	-	2								0		0	0	2	14	40	35	8	1	0
20	2	-	2	-	1											0	0	2	21	48	24	4	0	0
	1	-	0	-	4												0	1	16	49	28	5	0	0
19	2	-	3	-	0												0	0	5	38	41	14	2	0
	1	-	1	-	3													0	5	36	41	16	2	0
18	1	-	2	-	2													0	1	16	39	32	11	1	0
	0	-	0	-	5														0	13	39	34	12	1
17	1	-	3	-	1														0	5	26	40	24	5	0
	0	-	1	-	4															4	25	40	25	5
16	1	-	4	-	0															1	13	36	37	13	0
	0	-	2	-	3															1	10	33	40	16	0
15	0	-	3	-	2															0	2	16	43	39	0
14	0	-	4	-	1															0	0	6	32	61	1
13	0	-	5	-	0																0	1	19	78	2

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	4	7	12	19	19	16	12	7	0