Boa Esporte Clube Playoff Chances 2016 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 2.8 to 67.4%

22 points 6-3-4

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	-3.0		-4.4		-0.1
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	-2.8		-1.7		-0.1
Juventude 1 Boa 1	-1.7		-4.4		-0.1
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	-0.2		-2.6		-0.1
Tombense-MG 4 Mogi Mirim 0	-0.2		+0.5		-0.0

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série B	100.0*	Average seed
Boa vs Guarani	+17.5-4.2-14.3		+18.5-6.0-13.8		+0.8-0.2-0.7
Portuguesa vs Juventude	+2.8+1.5-3.9		+1.7+1.2-2.7		+0.1+0.1-0.1
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	-3.4+1.1+2.6		-1.3+0.5+0.9		-0.1+0.0+0.1
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP	+2.3+0.6-2.7		+4.2+1.8-5.5		+0.1+0.0-0.2
Ypiranga-RS vs Tombense-MG	-1.1+2.6-0.8		-0.6+2.3-1.2		-0.0+0.1-0.0

Chances based on how well the Boa finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP	W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D	Count

37	5	-	0	-	0	In		Yes		92	8									No	24,462
35	4	-	0	-	1	In		99.3	%	72	27	1								No	91,099
34	4	-	1	-	0	In		97.4		50	47	3	0							No	118,667
33	3	-	0	-	2	In		91.9		36	56	8	0							No	138,680
32	3	-	1	-	1	100.0	%	76.9		17	60	22	1	0						No	364,660
31	3	-	2	-	0	99.9		60.7		6	55	34	5	0	0					No	238,903
	2	-	0	-	3	99.9		57.7		6	52	37	5	0						No	106,540
30	2	-	1	-	2	98.1		30.9		1	30	49	19	2	0					No	417,676
29	2	-	2	-	1	89.8		12.9		0	13	42	35	9	1	0				No	546,372
	1	-	0	-	4	89.8		10.7		0	11	42	37	10	1	0				No	39,983
28	2	-	3	-	0	75.9		4.7		0	5	28	43	21	3	0				No	238,613
	1	-	1	-	3	71.7		3.2			3	24	44	24	4	0				No	212,789
27	1	-	2	-	2	39.9		0.4			0	8	32	42	17	2				No	417,707
	0	-	0	-	5	35.4		0.2			0	6	29	44	19	2				No	6,193
26	1	-	3	-	1	16.0		0.0			0	2	14	40	35	8	0			No	365,879
	0	-	1	-	4	13.1		0.0			0	1	12	40	37	9	0			No	40,267
25	1	-	4	-	0	4.4		0.0			0	0	4	28	47	20	0			No	119,949
	0	-	2	-	3	3.1		No				0	3	24	49	24	0			No	106,119
24	0	-	3	-	2	0.2		No					0	7	40	50	3	0		No	139,462
23	0	-	4	-	1	0.0		No					0	1	21	67	10	0		No	90,972
22	0	-	5	-	0	Out		No						0	8	69	21	1		No	24,128

Total:						67.4	%	27.8	%	7	20	21	18	15	11	6	0	0		No	3,849,120

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Juventude 1 Boa 1	+0.3
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	+0.2
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3	+0.2
Macaé 2 Guarani 4	+0.2

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Lottery seed
Boa vs Guarani	-1.6+0.4+1.3
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP	-0.2-0.1+0.3
Portuguesa vs Juventude	-0.2-0.1+0.2
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé	+0.2-0.1-0.1
Ypiranga-RS vs Tombense-MG	+0.1-0.2+0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

37	5	-	0	-	0	91	0	8
35	4	-	0	-	1	69	3	27	0	1
34	4	-	1	-	0	45	5	47	0	3		0
33	3	-	0	-	2	30	7	55	0	8	0	0
32	3	-	1	-	1	11	6	59	2	22	0	1		0
31	3	-	2	-	0	3	3	50	5	34	0	5		0	0
	2	-	0	-	3	2	4	45	7	37	0	5	0	0
30	2	-	1	-	2	0	1	23	7	47	1	19	0	2	0
29	2	-	2	-	1	0	0	6	6	37	5	35	0	9	1	0
	1	-	0	-	4		0	4	7	33	9	36	1	10	1	0
28	2	-	3	-	0		0	1	3	20	8	41	2	21	3	0
	1	-	1	-	3			1	3	14	10	40	4	24	4	0	0
27	1	-	2	-	2			0	0	3	5	25	7	40	18	2	0	0
	0	-	0	-	5				0	1	5	19	10	42	20	3	0
26	1	-	3	-	1			0	0	0	1	6	8	33	35	13	2	0	0	0
	0	-	1	-	4				0	0	1	4	9	29	37	17	4	0	0	0
25	1	-	4	-	0				0	0	0	1	3	17	37	29	10	2	0	0
	0	-	2	-	3					0	0	0	3	11	32	33	17	4	0	0
24	0	-	3	-	2							0	0	2	12	29	34	19	4	0	0
23	0	-	4	-	1								0	0	1	9	27	37	21	5	0	0
22	0	-	5	-	0										0	2	12	31	35	16	3	0

Total:						6	1	18	3	19	3	16	2	13	9	5	3	2	1	0	0	0