Portuguesa Playoff Chances 2016

Lost to Botafogo-SP 1-2, playoff odds down 0.2 to 0.01%

11 points 3-8-2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1	-0.2		+7.0		-0.1
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3			-0.4
Macaé 2 Guarani 4			-0.7		+0.1
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0			+4.4
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0			+0.6
Confiança 1 ABC 1			+0.1
River-PI 0 ASA 0			*+0.1

If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Série D	100.0*	Average seed
Portuguesa vs Juventude	+0.0-0.0Out		-19.4-1.2+9.9		+0.3-0.0-0.1
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé			-2.9+0.4+5.5		+0.1+0.0-0.2
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP			+1.2*-0.0-0.2
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB			+7.8+0.8-3.6
Remo vs Confiança			-1.5+0.4+2.4
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT			-1.4+0.1+1.8
ASA vs América-RN			-0.1*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Portuguesa finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Série		Chance will finish regular season at seed										Série
TP	W	-	L	-	E	playoffs		B		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	D		Count

26	5	-	0	-	0	13.5	%	0.0	%		0	1	13	41	37	9	0			No		10,301
24	4	-	0	-	1	0.1		No					0	5	31	48	17	0		No		55,313
23	4	-	1	-	0	0.0		No					0	0	10	46	44	0		No		100,309
22	3	-	0	-	2	Out		No						0	2	28	68	1		No		133,890
21	3	-	1	-	1	Out		No							0	13	82	4		No		480,180
20	3	-	2	-	0	Out		No							0	4	87	9		0.0	%	428,465
	2	-	0	-	3	Out		No							0	3	85	12		0.0		156,591
19	2	-	1	-	2	Out		No								0	82	18	0	0.1		830,132
18	2	-	2	-	1	Out		No									72	28	0	0.9		1,452,803
	1	-	0	-	4	Out		No									64	36		1.6		87,590
17	2	-	3	-	0	Out		No									61	39	0	4.3		840,093
	1	-	1	-	3	Out		No									54	46	0	6.5		607,457
16	1	-	2	-	2	Out		No									45	55	0	15.7		1,554,980
	0	-	0	-	5	Out		No									38	62		22.0		18,519
15	1	-	3	-	1	Out		No									31	69	0	31.9		1,748,057
	0	-	1	-	4	Out		No									23	76	0	41.0		155,455
14	1	-	4	-	0	Out		No									19	80	1	54.5		724,359
	0	-	2	-	3	Out		No									15	84	1	61.4		510,088
13	0	-	3	-	2	Out		No									9	87	4	77.7		822,235
12	0	-	4	-	1	Out		No									3	87	10	90.8		638,440
11	0	-	5	-	0	Out		No									0	74	26	98.4		192,103

Total:						0.0	%	0.0	%		0	0	0	0	0	2	46	51	1	26.6	%	11,547,360

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	L	-	E	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

26	5	-	0	-	0				0	0	1	6	7	36	37	12	1	0
24	4	-	0	-	1							0	0	2	12	30	34	18	4	0	0
23	4	-	1	-	0								0	0	1	9	27	37	21	4	0
22	3	-	0	-	2										0	1	7	26	40	23	3	0	0
21	3	-	1	-	1										0	0	1	11	35	40	11	1	0
20	3	-	2	-	0											0	0	2	17	47	29	5	0	0
	2	-	0	-	3												0	1	13	43	33	8	1	0
19	2	-	1	-	2												0	0	3	27	44	22	4	0
18	2	-	2	-	1													0	0	13	39	36	11	1	0
	1	-	0	-	4													0	0	9	34	40	16	2
17	2	-	3	-	0														0	3	23	43	26	4	0
	1	-	1	-	3														0	2	18	42	31	6	0
16	1	-	2	-	2															0	7	33	43	16	0
	0	-	0	-	5															0	4	27	46	22
15	1	-	3	-	1															0	2	19	47	32	0
	0	-	1	-	4															0	1	13	45	41	0
14	1	-	4	-	0															0	0	7	38	54	1
	0	-	2	-	3																0	5	34	60	1
13	0	-	3	-	2																0	1	21	74	3
12	0	-	4	-	1																	0	9	82	9
11	0	-	5	-	0																	0	2	73	25

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	8	14	20	25	25	1