"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Série B100.0*Série D100.0*Average seed
Confiança 1 ABC 1 -2.3
-0.5
+0.8
-0.2
River-PI 0 ASA 0 +0.2
+0.1
-0.3
+0.0
Botafogo-PB 2 Remo 0 -0.2
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0 +0.2
+0.5
-0.1
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0 *+0.1
+0.1
+2.2
-0.1
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1 -1.7
Macaé 2 Guarani 4 -1.4
Guaratinguetá 1 Ypiranga-RS 3 -0.7
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Série B100.0*Série D100.0*Average seed
Remo vs Confiança-2.4-1.7+3.7
-0.3-0.2+0.5
+8.5+0.7-9.1
-0.6-0.2+0.7
ASA vs América-RN-0.4+0.4+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
ABC vs Fortaleza-0.4+0.3+0.2
-0.0+0.1-0.0
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB+0.3+0.1-0.4
+0.1+0.1-0.1
+2.3-0.4-2.0
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT-0.2+0.2+0.1
-1.1*-0.0+1.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé-2.4-0.4+2.7
Portuguesa vs Juventude+2.7-0.4-2.4
Guaratinguetá vs Botafogo-SP+0.6-0.3-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Confiança finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inSérieChance will finish regular season at seedSérie
TPW-L-EplayoffsB12345678910DCount
285-0-097.9%37.0%532431820No24,493
264-0-151.81.2011338371110No90,846
254-1-024.00.10321422850No119,529
243-0-22.9No0324482220No139,226
233-1-10.2No00530451810No365,109
223-2-00.0No01124138700.0%238,754
2-0-3OutNo114443650No105,726
212-1-2OutNo0222522210.0417,835
202-2-1OutNo05404780.6547,730
1-0-4OutNo08454240.440,146
192-3-0OutNo012256213.3238,191
1-1-3OutNo012557172.7212,825
181-2-2OutNo09523911.6417,871
0-0-5OutNo01057339.76,199
171-3-1OutNo02356228.4364,375
0-1-4OutNo3415625.740,371
161-4-0OutNo0217949.7119,126
0-2-3OutNo0227748.4106,910
150-3-2OutNo099172.7138,831
140-4-1OutNo29889.390,825
130-5-0OutNo10096.724,202
Total:2.7%0.3%0012471221282512.9%3,849,120
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 8/13100.0*Lottery seed
Confiança 1 ABC 1 +0.4
Cuiabá-MT 2 Fortaleza 0 +0.1
Macaé 2 Guarani 4 -0.1
Botafogo-SP 2 Portuguesa 1 -0.1
América-RN 2 Salgueiro 0 +0.1
River-PI 0 ASA 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/20100.0*Lottery seed
Remo vs Confiança+1.0+0.4-1.3
Portuguesa vs Juventude+0.1-0.0-0.1
River-PI vs Botafogo-PB+0.1-0.0-0.1
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé-0.1-0.0+0.1
ASA vs América-RN-0.1-0.0+0.1
Salgueiro vs Cuiabá-MT-0.0-0.1+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-L-E1234567891011121314151617181920
285-0-05031637992000
264-0-101012137817166100
254-1-00030214172820610
243-0-2030215343212200
233-1-10000213323515200
223-2-0000316373310100
2-0-3002153933910
212-1-2002164130910
202-2-100323412671
1-0-40427402350
192-3-000931381830
1-1-3001033371730
181-2-202153735120
0-0-502163834100
171-3-1052343280
0-1-4062643250
161-4-0011138482
0-2-3011139462
150-3-20324676
140-4-100107415
130-5-0037126
Total:000010201236914171715121