Halifax Citadels Playoff Chances 3 50/50

Lost to W. Capitals 1-6, playoff odds down 6.9 to 45.4%

4 points 2 3-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
W. Capitals 6 Citadels 1	-7.3		-1.0		+3.7		-0.7

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Knights vs Tankers	-0.4-0.4-0.7+0.1+0.2+0.4						-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Citadels finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

62	-74						In		99.6	%	100															No		285	*
61		28	6		-	1	In		97.2		99	1														No		179	*
60		27	6		-	2	In		95.9		99	1														No		369	*
59		27	7		-	1	In		94.9		98	2														No		690	*
58		26	7		-	2	In		87.0		94	6														No		1,282	*
57		26	8		-	1	In		81.8		91	9	0	0												No		2,210	*
56		25	8		-	2	In		72.0		86	13	1	0												No		3,670	*
55		25	9		-	1	In		58.3		78	20	2	0												No		5,631	*
54		24	9		-	2	In		43.3		68	28	4	0	0											No		8,631	*
53		23	9		-	3	In		27.0		55	37	8	1	0											No		12,617	*
52		23	10		-	2	In		14.5		41	42	14	3	0	0										No		17,945	*
51		22	10		-	3	In		5.8		26	43	24	6	1	0										No		24,396	*
50		22	11		-	2	In		1.6		15	37	32	13	2	0	0									No		32,596	*
49		21	11		-	3	In		0.3		6	26	36	23	7	1	0	0								No		41,272	*
48		21	12		-	2	In		0.0		2	14	31	31	17	4	1	0								No		51,695	*
47		20	12		-	3	100.0	%	0.0		1	5	19	32	28	12	3	0	0	0						No		61,217	*
46		20	13		-	2	99.7		No		0	1	8	22	32	24	10	2	0	0	0					No		71,061	*
45		19	13		-	3	97.8		No		0	0	2	10	23	31	23	9	2	0	0					No		79,695	*
44		19	14		-	2	89.7		No			0	0	3	11	25	30	21	8	2	0	0	0			No		87,567	*
43		18	14		-	3	64.4		No				0	0	2	9	23	31	24	10	2	0	0			No		57,463	*
		19	15		-	1	79.3		No			0	0	1	4	16	29	29	16	4	1	0				No		34,331
42		18	15		-	2	43.4		No					0	0	3	13	27	30	19	7	1	0	0		No		54,427	*
		17	14		-	4	38.8		No					0	0	3	11	24	30	21	8	2	0			No		40,421	*
41		17	15		-	3	12.9		No						0	0	2	10	25	32	21	8	1	0	0	No		56,875	*
		18	16		-	1	22.6		No						0	1	5	17	29	28	15	4	1	0		No		36,754	*
40		17	16		-	2	5.4		No						0	0	1	5	16	30	29	15	4	0	0	0.0	%	46,483
		16	15		-	4	3.8		No							0	0	3	13	26	31	19	6	1	0	0.1		44,788	*
39		16	16		-	3	0.6		No							0	0	1	4	16	30	31	15	3	0	0.8		38,777
		17	17		-	1	1.1		No							0	0	1	6	18	31	27	13	3	0	0.9		46,212	*
38		16	17		-	2	0.1		No								0	0	1	8	23	34	25	8	1	4.5		39,217
		15	16		-	4	0.1		No								0	0	1	6	19	33	28	11	2	8.4		38,024	*
37		15	17		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	2	11	27	35	21	4	23.3		67,899	*
36		15	18		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	1	4	17	35	32	10	49.7		58,438	*
35		14	18		-	3	Out		No											0	1	9	28	41	20	75.0		48,496	*
34		14	19		-	2	Out		No										0	0	0	4	19	44	33	90.1		39,576	*
33		13	19		-	3	Out		No											0	0	1	11	41	46	96.8		30,262	*
32		13	20		-	2	Out		No												0	0	6	33	60	99.3		23,238	*
31		12	20		-	3	Out		No													0	3	26	71	99.9		16,964	*
30		12	21		-	2	Out		No													0	1	19	80	100.0		12,052	*
29		11	21		-	3	Out		No													0	0	12	88	Yes		8,377	*
28		11	22		-	2	Out		No														0	8	92	Yes		5,614	*
27		10	22		-	3	Out		No														0	5	95	Yes		3,708	*
26		10	23		-	2	Out		No														0	3	97	Yes		2,275	*
25		9	23		-	3	Out		No															2	98	Yes		1,251	*
24		9	24		-	2	Out		No														0	1	99	Yes		766	*
23		8	24		-	3	Out		No															0	100	Yes		440	*
22		8	25		-	2	Out		No															0	100	Yes		230	*
20	-21						Out		No																100	Yes		186	*
19		7	27		-	1	Out		No															3	97	Yes		34	*
4	-18						Out		No																100	Yes		134	*

Total:							45.4	%	1.6	%	4	4	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	16.7	%	1,356,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
W. Capitals 6 Citadels 1	+1.5
Juice 3 Steam 0	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Canadiens vs ELe	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

64	-74						100
63		29	5		-	1	98	2
62		28	5		-	2	100
61		28	6		-	1	97	3
60		27	6		-	2	96	4
59		27	7		-	1	95	5
58		26	7		-	2	87	13	0
57		26	8		-	1	82	17	1		0
56		25	8		-	2	72	25	3	0	0
55		25	9		-	1	58	33	8	1	0
54		24	9		-	2	43	39	15	3	0	0
53		23	9		-	3	27	41	23	7	1	0	0
52		23	10		-	2	15	33	31	15	5	1	0	0
51		22	10		-	3	6	21	31	25	13	4	1	0	0
50		22	11		-	2	2	9	21	28	23	12	4	1	0	0
49		21	11		-	3	0	2	9	20	26	22	13	5	1	0	0		0
48		21	12		-	2	0	0	2	8	16	24	23	16	7	3	1	0	0
47		20	12		-	3	0	0	0	1	5	13	20	23	19	11	5	2	0	0	0
46		20	13		-	2		0	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
		19	12		-	4			0	0	0	2	6	13	20	22	18	11	5	2	0	0
45		19	13		-	3				0	0	0	1	4	9	17	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
44		19	14		-	2					0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	20	14	7	3	1	0	0	0
43		18	14		-	3								0	0	0	1	2	7	15	22	22	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
		19	15		-	1								0	0	1	2	7	15	22	23	16	9	3	1	0	0
42		18	15		-	2										0	0	0	1	5	10	18	22	20	13	7	2	1	0	0
41		17	15		-	3												0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	7	2	0	0	0
		18	16		-	1												0	0	0	2	6	12	19	21	18	12	6	2	1	0	0
40		17	16		-	2													0	0	0	0	2	6	12	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
39		16	16		-	3															0	0	0	1	3	8	15	22	23	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
38		16	17		-	2																0	0	0	0	1	5	13	21	25	19	10	4	1	0
		15	16		-	4																		0	0	1	4	9	18	23	22	15	6	2	0	0
37		15	17		-	3																			0	0	1	3	8	17	24	24	15	6	1	0
36		15	18		-	2																	0			0	0	0	2	7	16	25	26	17	6	1
35		14	18		-	3																					0	0	0	2	6	17	28	28	16	4
34		14	19		-	2																							0	0	2	8	20	32	28	10
33		13	19		-	3																							0	0	0	3	11	28	38	21
32		13	20		-	2																								0	0	1	5	19	40	35
31		12	20		-	3																									0	0	2	11	38	49
30		12	21		-	2																										0	0	6	31	63
29		11	21		-	3																											0	2	22	75
28		11	22		-	2																												1	15	84
27		10	22		-	3																											0	0	10	89
26		10	23		-	2																											0	0	6	94
25		9	23		-	3																													4	96
24		9	24		-	2																												0	2	98
23		8	24		-	3																													0	100
22		8	25		-	2																													1	99
20	-21																																			100
19		7	27		-	1																													3	97
4	-18																																			100

Total:							2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4