Hugetest Icicles Playoff Chances 3 50/50

Beat Prairie Storm 3-2, playoff odds up 6.5 to 57.9%

6 points 3 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Icicles 3 Prairie Storm 2	+6.7		+1.0		-3.4		+0.7
Raju 7 Rats 1							*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Knights vs Tankers	+0.4+0.6-0.0-0.3*-0.2-0.5						+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Icicles finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

63	-76						In		Yes		100															No		478	*
62		27	6		-	2	In		99.5	%	100	0														No		396	*
61		27	7		-	1	In		97.3		100	0														No		671	*
60		26	7		-	2	In		96.4		99	1														No		1,293	*
59		26	8		-	1	In		91.8		98	2														No		2,218	*
58		25	8		-	2	In		87.6		96	4														No		3,655	*
57		25	9		-	1	In		79.4		93	6	0	0												No		5,599	*
56		24	9		-	2	In		70.0		89	11	0	0												No		8,720	*
55		23	9		-	3	In		56.0		81	18	1	0												No		12,626	*
54		23	10		-	2	In		41.1		71	26	3	0												No		18,009	*
53		22	10		-	3	In		26.1		59	34	6	0	0											No		24,387	*
52		22	11		-	2	In		13.7		45	41	12	2	0	0										No		32,611	*
51		21	11		-	3	In		5.4		30	43	21	5	1	0										No		41,124	*
50		21	12		-	2	In		1.5		17	39	31	11	2	0	0									No		51,468	*
49		20	12		-	3	In		0.2		8	28	36	21	6	1	0	0								No		61,088	*
48		20	13		-	2	In		0.0		3	16	34	30	14	3	0	0								No		36,547
		19	12		-	4	In		0.0		2	14	30	31	17	5	1	0								No		34,392	*
47		19	13		-	3	100.0	%	No		0	5	19	32	28	13	3	0	0							No		36,345
		20	14		-	1	100.0		0.0		1	6	21	32	25	11	3	0	0							No		43,448	*
46		19	14		-	2	99.8		No		0	2	9	24	32	22	8	2	0	0						No		44,758
		18	13		-	4	99.5		No		0	1	7	20	30	25	12	3	0	0						No		42,825	*
45		18	14		-	3	96.7		No			0	1	7	20	31	26	12	3	0	0	0				No		57,249	*
		19	15		-	1	99.0		No		0	0	3	14	28	30	18	6	1	0						No		34,377
44		18	15		-	2	91.4		No		0	0	0	3	11	26	31	20	7	1	0	0				No		48,558
		17	14		-	4	86.0		No			0	0	2	9	21	30	24	11	3	0	0	0			No		46,373	*
43		17	15		-	3	60.2		No				0	0	2	7	21	30	25	11	3	0	0			No		58,964	*
		18	16		-	1	76.5		No				0	0	4	15	28	29	17	5	1	0				No		34,969
42		17	16		-	2	42.9		No				0	0	0	3	13	26	30	19	6	1	0			No		58,136	*
		16	15		-	4	25.2		No					0	0	1	6	18	30	27	13	3	0	0		No		33,221	*
41		16	16		-	3	9.9		No						0	0	2	8	22	31	25	10	2	0	0	0.0	%	51,281	*
		17	17		-	1	19.1		No						0	1	4	15	27	29	18	5	1	0		No		33,317	*
40		16	17		-	2	3.6		No							0	0	3	13	27	31	19	6	1	0	0.0		39,550
		15	16		-	4	2.8		No						0	0	0	2	10	23	31	23	9	2	0	0.1		38,187	*
39		15	17		-	3	0.5		No								0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0.9		67,904	*
38		15	18		-	2	0.1		No								0	0	1	5	17	32	30	14	2	6.4		58,333	*
37		14	18		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	1	7	23	36	26	6	23.5		48,326	*
36		14	19		-	2	Out		No										0	0	2	13	33	37	15	49.8		39,222	*
35		13	19		-	3	Out		No										0	0	1	6	23	43	27	75.3		30,640	*
34		13	20		-	2	Out		No											0	0	2	14	42	41	90.4		23,067	*
33		12	20		-	3	Out		No													1	7	37	55	97.1		17,105	*
32		12	21		-	2	Out		No													0	4	29	68	99.3		12,333	*
31		11	21		-	3	Out		No													0	2	20	78	99.9		8,413	*
30		11	22		-	2	Out		No														0	14	86	100.0		5,627	*
29		10	22		-	3	Out		No														0	8	91	100.0		3,547	*
28		10	23		-	2	Out		No															5	95	Yes		2,197	*
27		10	24		-	1	Out		No															4	96	Yes		1,360	*
26		9	24		-	2	Out		No														0	2	98	Yes		799	*
25		9	25		-	1	Out		No															1	99	Yes		429	*
24		8	25		-	2	Out		No															0	100	Yes		227	*
6	-23						Out		No																100	Yes		351	*

Total:							57.9	%	3.5	%	8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	9.7	%	1,356,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Icicles 3 Prairie Storm 2	-1.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Knights vs Tankers	+0.0-0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

63	-76						100
62		27	6		-	2	99	1
61		27	7		-	1	97	3
60		26	7		-	2	96	4
59		26	8		-	1	92	8	0
58		25	8		-	2	88	12	0
57		25	9		-	1	79	19	1	0	0
56		24	9		-	2	70	26	3	0
55		23	9		-	3	56	35	8	1	0
54		23	10		-	2	41	40	15	3	0	0	0
53		22	10		-	3	26	40	24	8	1	0	0
52		22	11		-	2	14	32	31	16	5	1	0	0
51		21	11		-	3	5	20	31	25	13	4	1	0	0	0
50		21	12		-	2	2	9	21	28	23	12	5	1	0	0	0
49		20	12		-	3	0	2	9	19	25	23	13	6	2	0	0	0
48		20	13		-	2	0	0	2	8	18	25	23	14	7	2	0	0	0		0
		19	12		-	4	0	0	2	6	14	22	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
47		19	13		-	3	0	0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
46		19	14		-	2		0	0	0	1	3	9	18	23	22	14	7	2	1	0	0
		18	13		-	4				0	0	1	3	9	17	24	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
45		18	14		-	3					0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	11	4	1	0	0	0
		19	15		-	1					0	0	2	6	13	21	23	19	10	4	1	0	0
44		18	15		-	2						0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
		17	14		-	4							0	0	0	1	5	11	19	23	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
43		17	15		-	3									0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
		18	16		-	1								0	0	1	2	7	15	21	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
42		17	16		-	2										0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	19	11	4	1	0	0
		16	15		-	4												0	0	2	5	12	21	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
41		16	16		-	3												0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
		17	17		-	1											0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	23	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
40		16	17		-	2													0	0	0	0	2	5	12	19	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
39		15	17		-	3															0		0	0	2	6	13	21	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
		16	18		-	1																0	0	1	3	8	16	22	21	16	8	3	1	0	0
38		15	18		-	2																	0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0	0
37		14	18		-	3																			0	0	1	3	8	17	25	24	15	6	1	0
36		14	19		-	2																				0	0	0	2	7	16	25	26	17	6	1
35		13	19		-	3																						0	0	2	6	16	27	28	16	4
34		13	20		-	2																							0	0	2	8	19	33	28	10
33		12	20		-	3																								0	0	3	11	28	38	20
32		12	21		-	2																									0	1	5	19	41	34
31		11	21		-	3																										0	2	11	38	49
30		11	22		-	2																										0	0	6	31	63
29		10	22		-	3																										0	0	3	22	75
28		10	23		-	2																											0	1	15	84
27		10	24		-	1																												1	9	90
26		9	24		-	2																												0	7	92
25		9	25		-	1																													3	97
24		8	25		-	2																													3	97
23		8	26		-	1																													2	98
6	-22																																			100

Total:							3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2