Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 3 50/50

Beat Citadels 6-1, playoff odds up 6.1 to 71.4%

8 points 4 1-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
W. Capitals 6 Citadels 1	+6.1		+1.6		-2.3		+0.6
Dealers 7 B. Capitals 4	*+0.3
Raju 7 Rats 1							*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Knights vs Tankers	-0.3-0.6-0.8+0.2+0.2+0.4						-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the W. Capitals finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

64	-78						In		99.8	%	100															No		893	*
63		27	7		-	1	In		99.4		100	0														No		715	*
62		26	7		-	2	In		99.0		100	0														No		1,294	*
61		26	8		-	1	In		98.2		99	1														No		2,156	*
60		25	8		-	2	In		95.9		98	2														No		3,655	*
59		25	9		-	1	In		93.4		98	2	0													No		5,713	*
58		24	9		-	2	In		89.2		95	5	0													No		8,832	*
57		23	9		-	3	In		81.7		91	9	0													No		12,514	*
56		23	10		-	2	In		71.9		86	13	1	0												No		18,142	*
55		22	10		-	3	In		58.4		79	20	2	0	0											No		24,387	*
54		22	11		-	2	In		42.8		68	28	3	0												No		32,462	*
53		21	11		-	3	In		27.1		56	36	8	1	0											No		41,047	*
52		21	12		-	2	In		14.3		42	42	14	2	0	0										No		51,549	*
51		20	12		-	3	In		5.5		27	43	23	6	1	0	0									No		60,909	*
50		20	13		-	2	In		1.8		16	39	32	11	2	0	0									No		36,797
		19	12		-	4	In		1.4		14	36	33	14	3	0	0									No		34,607	*
49		19	13		-	3	In		0.2		6	25	36	24	8	1	0	0								No		36,491
		20	14		-	1	In		0.3		8	28	35	21	7	1	0									No		43,235	*
48		19	14		-	2	100.0	%	0.0		3	16	32	31	15	3	0	0	0							No		44,499
		18	13		-	4	In		0.0		2	13	29	32	18	5	1	0								No		42,719	*
47		18	14		-	3	100.0		No		0	4	18	32	29	13	3	0	0							No		41,764
		19	15		-	1	100.0		0.0		1	6	20	32	26	12	3	0	0							No		49,873	*
46		18	15		-	2	99.9		No		0	1	9	24	33	23	8	2	0	0						No		48,453
		17	14		-	4	99.6		No		0	1	7	20	31	26	12	3	0	0						No		46,262	*
45		17	15		-	3	97.1		No			0	1	7	21	31	25	11	3	0	0					No		58,927	*
		18	16		-	1	99.2		No		0	0	3	14	29	30	17	5	1	0	0					No		34,834
44		17	16		-	2	93.0		No			0	0	3	13	27	30	18	6	1	0	0				No		57,865	*
		16	15		-	4	84.0		No				0	1	6	20	31	26	13	3	0	0				No		33,084	*
43		16	16		-	3	64.1		No			0	0	0	2	9	22	31	24	10	2	0	0			No		53,204	*
		17	17		-	1	79.9		No			0	0	1	5	16	29	29	15	4	1	0				No		31,353
42		16	17		-	2	41.7		No				0	0	0	3	12	26	30	20	7	1	0	0		No		78,038	*
41		15	17		-	3	14.6		No					0	0	0	3	12	26	31	20	7	1	0		No		31,226
		16	18		-	1	19.3		No						0	1	4	14	27	29	17	6	1	0	0	No		37,123	*
40		15	18		-	2	4.7		No						0	0	1	4	15	28	30	17	5	1	0	0.0	%	58,604	*
39		14	18		-	3	0.9		No							0	0	1	5	17	30	29	14	3	0	0.9		48,583	*
38		14	19		-	2	0.2		No									0	1	7	21	33	26	10	1	6.7		39,240	*
37		13	19		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	2	10	27	35	20	4	23.8		30,417	*
36		13	20		-	2	Out		No										0	1	4	18	35	32	10	49.9		23,216	*
35		12	20		-	3	Out		No										0	0	1	9	28	41	20	75.7		16,989	*
34		12	21		-	2	Out		No											0	0	4	19	43	33	90.8		12,242	*
33		11	21		-	3	Out		No												0	1	11	41	46	96.9		8,239	*
32		11	22		-	2	Out		No													0	6	34	60	99.3		5,513	*
31		10	22		-	3	Out		No													0	3	27	70	99.7		3,670	*
30		10	23		-	2	Out		No													0	1	18	80	100.0		2,275	*
29		10	24		-	1	Out		No													0	0	11	88	Yes		1,319	*
28		9	24		-	2	Out		No														0	8	92	Yes		782	*
27		9	25		-	1	Out		No														0	5	95	Yes		420	*
26		8	25		-	2	Out		No															3	97	Yes		235	*
25		8	26		-	1	Out		No															2	98	Yes		121	*
8	-24						Out		No																100	Yes		233	*

Total:							71.4	%	7.1	%	13	11	10	9	8	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	2	5.0	%	1,356,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
W. Capitals 6 Citadels 1	-1.3
Dealers 7 B. Capitals 4	*-0.0
Icicles 3 Prairie Storm 2	*-0.0

Sunday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

66	-78						100
65		28	6		-	1	99	1
64		27	6		-	2	100	0
63		27	7		-	1	99	1
62		26	7		-	2	99	1
61		26	8		-	1	98	2
60		25	8		-	2	96	4	0
59		25	9		-	1	93	6	0
58		24	9		-	2	89	10	0	0
57		23	9		-	3	82	17	1	0
56		23	10		-	2	72	25	3	0	0
55		22	10		-	3	58	33	8	1	0	0
54		22	11		-	2	43	39	15	3	0	0
53		21	11		-	3	27	40	23	8	1	0	0
52		21	12		-	2	14	32	31	16	5	1	0	0
51		20	12		-	3	5	20	31	25	13	4	1	0	0
50		20	13		-	2	2	9	21	28	23	12	4	1	0	0		0
49		19	13		-	3	0	2	8	18	26	24	14	6	2	0	0
		20	14		-	1	0	3	10	21	26	21	12	5	1	0	0	0
48		19	14		-	2	0	0	3	9	18	25	23	14	6	2	0	0	0
		18	13		-	4	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	18	9	4	1	0	0
47		18	14		-	3		0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	7	2	1	0	0	0	0
		19	15		-	1	0	0	0	2	8	17	23	23	16	8	2	1	0	0
46		18	15		-	2		0	0	0	1	3	10	18	23	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
		17	14		-	4				0	0	1	4	10	18	23	22	14	6	2	1	0	0
45		17	15		-	3					0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	11	4	1	0	0
		18	16		-	1				0	0	0	2	6	14	21	24	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
44		17	16		-	2						0	0	0	1	4	9	17	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
43		16	16		-	3									0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	17	10	4	1	0	0
		17	17		-	1								0	0	1	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
42		16	17		-	2											0	0	2	5	12	19	24	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
		15	16		-	4										0	0	0	1	4	8	15	20	21	16	9	4	1	0	0
41		15	17		-	3											0	0	0	0	1	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0
40		15	18		-	2													0	0	0	0	2	6	12	19	23	19	12	5	1	0	0	0
39		14	18		-	3															0	0	0	1	3	7	14	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
38		14	19		-	2																		0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0	0
37		13	19		-	3																			0	0	1	3	8	17	24	24	16	6	1	0
36		13	20		-	2																				0	0	0	2	7	16	25	26	17	6	1
35		12	20		-	3																						0	0	2	6	16	28	28	16	4
34		12	21		-	2																							0	0	2	7	20	33	28	10
33		11	21		-	3																								0	0	3	11	28	37	22
32		11	22		-	2																									0	1	5	19	40	35
31		10	22		-	3																									0	0	2	11	38	50
30		10	23		-	2																										0	1	5	29	65
29		10	24		-	1																											0	2	23	75
28		9	24		-	2																												1	14	85
27		9	25		-	1																												1	9	90
26		8	25		-	2																												0	4	95
25		8	26		-	1																													3	97
8	-24																																			100

Total:							7	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1