How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
W. Capitals 6 Citadels 1 *+0.1
Icicles 3 Prairie Storm 2 *+0.1
Dealers 7 B. Capitals 4 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Knights vs Tankers-0.5*-0.4*+0.1*-0.1*+0.1+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Wheat Kings finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seedTier
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy123456789101112131415IIICount
66-77InYes100No158*
65295-2In98.3%982No58*
63-64InYes100No341*
62287-1In99.11000No448*
61277-2In97.9991No905*
60278-1In95.9982No1,459*
59268-2In93.3973No2,423*
58258-3In87.79460No4,028*
57259-2In79.59090No6,307*
56249-3In68.5841510No9,363*
552410-2In54.3762220No13,788*
542310-3In39.36530500No18,916*
532311-2In24.05138910No25,865*
522211-3In12.2374317300No33,390*
512212-2In4.5244226710No42,526*
502112-3In1.1123634153000No52,141*
492113-2In0.252436259200No62,102*
482013-3100.0%0.02122933195100No71,002*
472014-2100.0No0418322913300No40,180
1913-499.9No04153030165100No39,806*
461914-399.5No01518312814300No39,930
2015-199.6No01721312511300No46,536*
451915-297.9No00182432249200No45,878
1814-496.3No017193026133000No45,804*
441815-386.3No001721312611200No42,460
1916-188.1No002102330229200No49,801*
431816-265.5No002923312392000No93,088*
421716-332.2No002822322410200No41,313
1817-139.0No003112430218200No47,685*
411717-213.9No0031125312181000.0%84,154*
401617-32.6No002112533217100.135,018
1718-14.1No014142730186100.140,791*
391618-20.6No001415293016401.367,420*
381518-30.1No00161933291128.857,479*
371519-20.0No0029263623528.248,285*
361419-30.0No00031534341255.638,974*
351420-2OutNo001827422378.730,328*
341320-3OutNo00318443591.923,176*
331321-2OutNo0111394997.717,314*
321221-3OutNo005326399.512,392*
311222-2OutNo02247499.98,570*
301122-3OutNo11782100.05,606*
291123-2OutNo01189Yes3,766*
281023-3OutNo0793Yes2,377*
271024-2OutNo0496Yes1,413*
261025-1OutNo397Yes798*
25925-2OutNo199Yes511*
24825-3OutNo298Yes258*
23826-2OutNo199Yes144*
5-22OutNo100Yes245*
Total:58.1%3.6%77777777777665410.3%1,356,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Chevalier 2 Nightmares 6 *-0.0
Icicles 3 Prairie Storm 2 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Canadiens vs ELe*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
66-77100
65295-2982
63-64100
62287-1991
61277-2982
60278-19640
59268-29360
58258-388121
57259-2801920
56249-36827400
552410-25435910
542310-33940174000
532311-22439269200
522211-3123132186100
512212-24182927155100
502112-317192725146100
492113-20271725241672000
482013-30014122224201141000
2114-100271523231793100
472014-20015122024201251000
1913-400261422231894100
461914-30014111924211362000
2015-100026142122171051000
451915-200127142122171041000
441815-3000151119232012520000
1916-100015121923201252000
431816-2000137152122179410000
421716-300025122023191251000
1817-100025122023191151000
411717-200141017232214720000
1616-400138142022171041000
401617-300014101723211472000
391618-20002612202319114100
381518-300139172423157200
371519-20002615242518820
361419-300151324271971
351420-200015152729184
341320-30001718323012
331321-200210263923
321221-3004174039
311222-20193554
301122-30052867
291123-2022078
281023-3011486
271024-200892
261025-1793
25925-2397
24825-3298
23826-2298
5-22100
Total:444444444444443333333333333332