New York Rats Playoff Chances 3 50/50

Lost to Raju 1-7, playoff odds down 6.9 to 51.5%

4 points 2 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Raju 7 Rats 1	-6.9		-1.4		+3.2		-0.7
Icicles 3 Prairie Storm 2							*-0.0
Juice 3 Steam 0							*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Knights vs Tankers	+0.5+0.0+0.4-0.2-0.2-0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Rats finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

62	-76						In		99.2	%	100															No		618	*
61		28	7		-	1	In		97.6		99	1														No		462	*
60		27	7		-	2	In		95.7		99	1														No		908	*
59		27	8		-	1	In		93.3		98	2														No		1,468	*
58		26	8		-	2	In		87.5		96	4	0													No		2,488	*
57		25	8		-	3	In		78.5		93	7	0	0												No		3,946	*
56		25	9		-	2	In		69.4		88	11	0	0												No		6,312	*
55		24	9		-	3	In		56.3		81	18	1	0												No		9,340	*
54		24	10		-	2	In		41.3		71	26	3	0												No		13,755	*
53		23	10		-	3	In		25.8		59	34	7	0	0											No		18,809	*
52		23	11		-	2	In		13.7		45	41	13	2	0	0										No		26,030	*
51		22	11		-	3	In		5.1		29	44	22	5	0	0										No		33,535	*
50		22	12		-	2	In		1.4		17	39	31	11	2	0	0									No		42,528	*
49		21	12		-	3	In		0.2		8	28	36	22	6	1	0									No		51,641	*
48		21	13		-	2	In		0.0		3	16	33	30	14	3	0	0								No		31,626
		20	12		-	4	In		0.0		2	13	30	31	17	5	1	0								No		30,676	*
47		20	13		-	3	100.0	%	No		1	6	20	32	27	12	3	0	0							No		70,775	*
46		20	14		-	2	99.8		No		0	2	9	25	32	22	8	2	0	0						No		40,105
		19	13		-	4	99.5		No		0	1	7	20	30	26	12	3	0	0						No		39,502	*
45		19	14		-	3	97.6		No		0	0	1	8	22	32	24	10	2	0	0					No		40,039
		20	15		-	1	97.5		No		0	0	2	11	24	30	21	9	2	0	0					No		46,812	*
44		19	15		-	2	92.0		No			0	0	3	12	26	30	19	7	1	0	0				No		56,950	*
		18	14		-	4	82.1		No			0	0	1	6	18	30	27	14	4	0	0	0			No		34,331	*
43		18	15		-	3	60.0		No				0	0	2	8	20	31	25	11	3	0	0			No		59,936	*
		19	16		-	1	77.2		No			0	0	1	4	15	28	30	17	5	1	0				No		32,634
42		18	16		-	2	40.6		No					0	0	3	12	26	31	20	7	1	0	0		No		45,998
		17	15		-	4	31.6		No					0	0	2	8	21	30	24	11	3	0	0		No		46,511	*
41		17	16		-	3	11.2		No					0	0	0	2	9	24	31	23	9	2	0	0	No		40,888
		18	17		-	1	15.2		No						0	0	3	12	24	30	21	8	2	0	0	0.0	%	48,009	*
40		17	17		-	2	3.7		No						0	0	0	3	13	28	31	19	6	1	0	0.0		41,872
		16	16		-	4	2.6		No							0	0	2	10	23	31	23	9	2	0	0.1		42,363	*
39		16	17		-	3	0.3		No								0	0	2	11	26	33	21	6	1	1.3		48,862	*
		17	18		-	1	0.9		No							0	0	1	5	18	31	28	13	3	0	0.3		26,812
38		16	18		-	2	0.1		No								0	0	1	5	19	33	29	11	2	4.5		33,875
		15	17		-	4	0.0		No									0	1	4	15	30	32	16	3	9.0		33,678	*
37		15	18		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	1	7	22	36	26	7	23.8		57,361	*
36		15	19		-	2	Out		No										0	0	2	13	32	37	15	50.7		48,309	*
35		14	19		-	3	Out		No											0	1	6	23	43	27	75.7		38,827	*
34		14	20		-	2	Out		No											0	0	2	15	42	41	90.2		30,984	*
33		13	20		-	3	Out		No												0	1	7	36	56	97.1		23,281	*
32		13	21		-	2	Out		No												0	0	3	28	68	99.3		17,475	*
31		12	21		-	3	Out		No													0	2	20	78	99.9		12,498	*
30		12	22		-	2	Out		No														1	14	85	100.0		8,616	*
29		11	22		-	3	Out		No														0	9	91	Yes		5,799	*
28		11	23		-	2	Out		No														0	5	95	Yes		3,785	*
27		10	23		-	3	Out		No														0	3	97	Yes		2,290	*
26		10	24		-	2	Out		No															2	98	Yes		1,422	*
25		9	24		-	3	Out		No															1	99	Yes		844	*
24		9	25		-	2	Out		No															0	100	Yes		484	*
4	-23						Out		No																100	Yes		651	*

Total:							51.5	%	2.6	%	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	13.1	%	1,356,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Raju 7 Rats 1	+1.5

Sunday	None

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

65	-76						100
64		29	5		-	2	97	3
63		29	6		-	1	100
62		28	6		-	2	99	1
61		28	7		-	1	98	2
60		27	7		-	2	96	4
59		27	8		-	1	93	6	0
58		26	8		-	2	88	12	1
57		25	8		-	3	79	20	1	0
56		25	9		-	2	69	27	4	0	0
55		24	9		-	3	56	35	8	1	0
54		24	10		-	2	41	40	15	3	0	0
53		23	10		-	3	26	40	24	8	2	0	0
52		23	11		-	2	14	32	31	16	5	1	0	0
51		22	11		-	3	5	20	31	26	13	4	1	0	0
50		22	12		-	2	1	8	21	28	23	12	4	1	0	0
49		21	12		-	3	0	2	9	19	26	23	14	6	2	0	0	0
48		21	13		-	2	0	0	2	7	16	24	23	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
47		20	13		-	3		0	0	1	5	12	20	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
46		20	14		-	2			0	0	1	3	7	15	21	22	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
45		19	14		-	3				0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
44		19	15		-	2						0	0	0	2	6	12	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
		18	14		-	4							0	0	0	1	5	12	19	23	20	12	5	2	0	0
43		18	15		-	3								0	0	0	1	4	10	17	21	20	14	7	3	1	0	0	0
42		18	16		-	2										0	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	11	5	1	0	0	0
		17	15		-	4											0	0	1	3	8	15	20	21	16	9	4	1	0	0	0
41		17	16		-	3												0	0	0	1	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0	0
40		17	17		-	2												0		0	0	0	2	5	12	19	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
39		16	17		-	3															0	0	0	1	3	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
38		16	18		-	2																	0	0	0	1	5	12	21	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
		15	17		-	4																	0	0	0	1	3	9	16	23	23	15	7	2	0	0
37		15	18		-	3																			0	0	1	3	8	16	24	25	16	6	1	0
36		15	19		-	2																			0	0	0	0	2	7	15	25	26	17	6	1
35		14	19		-	3																					0	0	0	2	6	16	28	28	16	4
34		14	20		-	2																							0	0	2	8	20	32	28	10
33		13	20		-	3																								0	0	2	11	28	37	21
32		13	21		-	2																									0	1	5	19	41	34
31		12	21		-	3																										0	2	11	37	50
30		12	22		-	2																										0	1	6	31	63
29		11	22		-	3																											0	3	23	74
28		11	23		-	2																											0	1	16	83
27		10	23		-	3																											0	0	12	88
26		10	24		-	2																												0	6	93
25		9	24		-	3																													4	96
24		9	25		-	2																													2	98
23		8	25		-	3																													1	99
22		8	26		-	2																													1	99
21		7	26		-	3																													1	99
20		7	27		-	2																													3	97
4	-19																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	3	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3