Rauma Raju Playoff Chances 3 50/50

Beat Rats 7-1, playoff odds up 6.3 to 58.6%

4 points 2 1-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Raju 7 Rats 1	+6.4		+1.0		-3.4		+0.7

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Grinders vs Raju	-7.0-1.4-1.6+5.7+6.2+6.2		-1.5-0.5-0.6+1.2+1.3+1.3		+3.1*+0.0+0.6-2.6-2.5-2.7		-0.7-0.2-0.2+0.6+0.6+0.7
Knights vs Tankers	+0.5+0.3+0.0-0.7-0.7-0.4						+0.0+0.0-0.0*-0.1-0.1-0.0
Canadiens vs ELe							+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Raju finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

63	-78						In		99.9	%	100															No		741	*
62		28	7		-	2	In		99.0		100	0														No		594	*
61		28	8		-	1	In		98.2		99	1														No		960	*
60		27	8		-	2	In		95.4		99	1														No		1,772	*
59		26	8		-	3	In		93.5		98	2	0													No		2,906	*
58		26	9		-	2	In		87.7		96	4	0													No		4,414	*
57		25	9		-	3	In		79.9		93	7	0													No		6,972	*
56		25	10		-	2	In		70.7		89	11	0													No		10,157	*
55		24	10		-	3	In		57.3		81	18	1	0												No		14,447	*
54		24	11		-	2	In		42.1		72	25	3	0	0											No		20,089	*
53		23	11		-	3	In		26.6		59	34	6	0	0	0										No		26,529	*
52		23	12		-	2	In		14.1		45	41	12	2	0	0										No		34,979	*
51		22	12		-	3	In		5.6		30	44	21	5	0	0										No		43,272	*
50		22	13		-	2	In		1.5		17	39	31	11	2	0	0									No		53,087	*
49		21	13		-	3	In		0.3		8	28	36	21	6	1	0	0								No		62,243	*
48		21	14		-	2	In		0.0		3	17	34	30	13	3	0	0								No		35,527
		20	13		-	4	In		0.0		2	13	30	32	17	5	1	0								No		36,357	*
47		20	14		-	3	100.0	%	0.0		1	6	20	32	26	12	3	0	0							No		79,382	*
46		20	15		-	2	99.9		No		0	2	9	25	32	22	8	1	0	0	0					No		42,340
		19	14		-	4	99.5		No		0	1	7	20	30	26	12	3	0	0						No		43,804	*
45		19	15		-	3	97.7		No		0	0	2	9	22	32	24	10	2	0	0					No		41,517
		20	16		-	1	97.3		No		0	0	3	11	24	30	22	9	2	0	0	0				No		48,330	*
44		19	16		-	2	92.0		No			0	0	3	13	26	30	19	7	1	0	0				No		55,796	*
		18	15		-	4	83.0		No			0	0	1	6	19	30	27	13	3	0	0	0			No		36,047	*
43		18	16		-	3	64.9		No				0	0	2	9	23	31	23	9	2	0	0			No		41,906
		19	17		-	1	67.1		No				0	0	3	11	24	29	21	9	2	0	0			No		48,834	*
42		18	17		-	2	43.7		No					0	0	3	13	27	30	19	6	1	0	0		No		52,288	*
		17	16		-	4	25.4		No						0	1	6	18	30	28	13	3	0	0		No		35,142	*
41		17	17		-	3	11.3		No						0	0	2	9	24	32	23	9	2	0	0	No		38,235
		18	18		-	1	14.8		No						0	0	3	11	24	30	21	9	2	0	0	0.0	%	43,918	*
40		17	18		-	2	3.9		No						0	0	0	3	13	28	31	18	5	1	0	0.0		36,750
		16	17		-	4	2.8		No							0	0	2	10	23	31	23	9	2	0	0.1		39,048	*
39		16	18		-	3	0.3		No							0	0	0	3	12	27	33	19	5	0	0.7		30,735
		17	19		-	1	0.6		No								0	1	4	14	28	30	18	5	0	0.9		35,606	*
38		16	19		-	2	0.1		No								0	0	1	5	17	32	30	14	2	6.5		57,138	*
37		15	19		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	1	7	23	36	26	6	23.6		47,676	*
36		15	20		-	2	Out		No										0	0	2	13	33	37	15	49.9		39,063	*
35		14	20		-	3	Out		No											0	1	6	24	43	27	74.9		30,272	*
34		14	21		-	2	Out		No												0	2	14	42	41	90.5		23,498	*
33		13	21		-	3	Out		No												0	1	8	35	56	96.9		17,237	*
32		13	22		-	2	Out		No												0	0	4	28	68	99.1		12,571	*
31		12	22		-	3	Out		No												0	0	2	20	78	99.8		8,666	*
30		12	23		-	2	Out		No													0	1	14	86	100.0		5,838	*
29		11	23		-	3	Out		No														0	10	90	Yes		3,899	*
28		11	24		-	2	Out		No														0	6	94	Yes		2,476	*
27		10	24		-	3	Out		No														0	3	97	Yes		1,517	*
26		10	25		-	2	Out		No															3	97	Yes		906	*
25		9	25		-	3	Out		No															1	99	Yes		527	*
24		9	26		-	2	Out		No															0	100	Yes		277	*
4	-23						Out		No																100	Yes		435	*

Total:							58.6	%	4.1	%	8	8	8	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	9.8	%	1,356,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Raju 7 Rats 1	-1.3
Dealers 7 B. Capitals 4	*-0.0
Chevalier 2 Nightmares 6	*-0.0
Icicles 3 Prairie Storm 2	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Grinders vs Raju	+1.5+0.3+0.3-1.3-1.3-1.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

64	-78						100
63		29	7		-	1	100	0
62		28	7		-	2	99	1
61		28	8		-	1	98	2
60		27	8		-	2	95	5	0
59		26	8		-	3	94	6	0	0
58		26	9		-	2	88	12	0	0
57		25	9		-	3	80	19	1		0
56		25	10		-	2	71	25	3	0	0
55		24	10		-	3	57	34	8	1	0
54		24	11		-	2	42	39	15	3	0	0
53		23	11		-	3	27	40	24	8	1	0	0
52		23	12		-	2	14	32	31	16	5	1	0	0
51		22	12		-	3	6	20	30	25	13	4	1	0	0
50		22	13		-	2	1	9	21	28	23	12	4	1	0	0	0
49		21	13		-	3	0	2	9	19	26	23	13	6	2	0	0	0
48		21	14		-	2	0	0	2	7	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
47		20	14		-	3	0	0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
46		20	15		-	2		0		0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
		19	14		-	4			0	0	0	2	6	12	19	23	18	12	5	2	0	0	0
45		19	15		-	3				0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0	0
44		19	16		-	2						0	0	0	2	5	13	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
		18	15		-	4							0	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
43		18	16		-	3								0	0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
		19	17		-	1								0	0	1	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
42		18	17		-	2										0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	19	11	4	1	0	0	0
		17	16		-	4												0	0	2	5	12	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0
41		17	17		-	3												0	0	0	1	4	9	18	23	22	14	7	2	0	0
		18	18		-	1												0	0	0	2	6	12	18	21	19	12	6	2	1	0	0	0
40		17	18		-	2														0	0	1	3	8	15	22	23	17	8	3	1	0	0
		16	17		-	4														0	0	0	1	3	8	15	23	23	16	9	3	1	0	0
39		16	18		-	3															0	0	0	1	3	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
38		16	19		-	2																	0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	22	13	5	1	0	0
37		15	19		-	3																		0	0	0	1	3	8	17	24	24	16	6	1	0
36		15	20		-	2																				0	0	0	2	7	16	26	26	17	6	1
35		14	20		-	3																						0	0	2	6	17	28	28	16	4
34		14	21		-	2																						0	0	0	2	7	20	32	28	10
33		13	21		-	3																								0	0	3	11	28	37	21
32		13	22		-	2																									0	1	5	19	41	34
31		12	22		-	3																										0	2	11	37	49
30		12	23		-	2																										0	1	6	30	63
29		11	23		-	3																											0	3	24	74
28		11	24		-	2																											0	1	16	83
27		10	24		-	3																												1	12	87
26		10	25		-	2																												0	8	91
25		9	25		-	3																												0	5	95
24		9	26		-	2																													1	99
23		9	27		-	1																													1	99
22		8	27		-	2																													1	99
4	-21																																			100

Total:							4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2