Levis Chevalier Playoff Chances 3 50/50

Lost to Nightmares 2-6, playoff odds down 6.8 to 50.8%

3 points 1 1-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Chevalier 2 Nightmares 6	-7.0		-1.4		+3.4		-0.7

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Tier III	100.0*	Average seed
Knights vs Tankers	+0.5+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.7-0.5						+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.1-0.0
Grinders vs Raju	+0.1+0.3-0.8-0.3-0.7+0.0						+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chevalier finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed															Tier
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	III		Count

64	-77						In		99.6	%	100															No		253	*
63		29	6		-	2	In		99.3		99	1														No		144	*
62		29	7		-	1	In		99.0		100	0														No		287	*
61		28	7		-	2	In		98.2		99	1														No		547	*
60		27	7		-	3	In		95.9		99	1														No		1,028	*
59		27	8		-	2	In		92.3		98	2														No		1,744	*
58		26	8		-	3	In		87.1		96	4	0													No		2,759	*
57		26	9		-	2	In		78.0		92	8	0													No		4,568	*
56		25	9		-	3	In		67.9		87	12	0	0												No		6,791	*
55		25	10		-	2	In		54.6		80	19	1	0												No		10,132	*
54		24	10		-	3	In		38.7		70	27	3	0												No		14,412	*
53		24	11		-	2	In		23.9		57	36	7	1	0											No		20,222	*
52		23	11		-	3	In		11.8		42	42	14	2	0											No		26,830	*
51		23	12		-	2	In		4.4		27	43	23	6	1	0										No		34,580	*
50		22	12		-	3	In		1.2		15	37	33	13	2	0	0									No		43,010	*
49		22	13		-	2	In		0.2		6	26	36	23	7	1	0	0								No		52,965	*
48		21	13		-	3	100.0	%	0.0		2	13	30	32	17	5	1	0	0							No		62,261	*
47		21	14		-	2	99.9		0.0		0	5	17	31	28	14	4	1	0	0						No		71,782	*
46		20	14		-	3	99.5		No		0	1	5	19	31	27	13	3	0	0						No		37,021
		21	15		-	1	99.5		No		0	1	7	21	31	25	12	3	0	0						No		42,427	*
45		20	15		-	2	97.1		No			0	1	8	21	31	25	11	3	0	0	0				No		48,898	*
		19	14		-	4	96.4		No		0	0	1	8	20	30	25	12	3	0	0					No		37,110	*
44		19	15		-	3	84.2		No			0	0	1	6	19	31	26	12	3	0	0				No		41,830
		20	16		-	1	86.2		No			0	0	2	9	22	30	23	11	3	0	0				No		48,198	*
43		19	16		-	2	65.5		No				0	0	2	9	23	31	23	9	2	0	0			No		45,408
		18	15		-	4	57.0		No				0	0	1	7	19	30	26	13	4	1	0			No		47,049	*
42		18	16		-	3	30.9		No					0	0	2	8	21	30	25	11	3	0	0	0	No		90,419	*
41		18	17		-	2	11.9		No						0	0	2	10	24	31	23	9	2	0	0	No		42,840
		17	16		-	4	9.2		No						0	0	2	7	20	30	25	12	3	0	0	0.0	%	45,090	*
40		17	17		-	3	1.6		No							0	0	1	8	22	32	25	9	2	0	0.1		38,081
		18	18		-	1	2.7		No							0	0	2	10	24	31	22	9	2	0	0.1		43,895	*
39		17	18		-	2	0.4		No								0	0	3	12	28	32	19	5	0	0.8		36,731
		16	17		-	4	0.4		No								0	0	2	10	24	32	22	7	1	1.8		38,670	*
38		16	18		-	3	0.0		No									0	0	3	13	30	33	17	3	9.5		30,609
		17	19		-	1	0.0		No									0	1	4	16	31	31	15	3	8.1		35,448	*
37		16	19		-	2	0.0		No									0	0	1	6	21	36	28	8	28.0		57,419	*
36		15	19		-	3	Out		No										0	0	2	11	31	39	17	55.8		47,859	*
35		15	20		-	2	Out		No											0	0	5	22	43	30	78.7		38,669	*
34		14	20		-	3	Out		No											0	0	2	12	41	45	92.4		30,357	*
33		14	21		-	2	Out		No													0	7	34	58	97.8		23,521	*
32		13	21		-	3	Out		No												0	0	3	26	71	99.5		17,282	*
31		13	22		-	2	Out		No													0	1	19	80	99.9		12,660	*
30		12	22		-	3	Out		No														0	12	88	100.0		8,766	*
29		12	23		-	2	Out		No														0	7	92	Yes		6,082	*
28		11	23		-	3	Out		No														0	5	95	Yes		3,873	*
27		11	24		-	2	Out		No															3	97	Yes		2,462	*
26		10	24		-	3	Out		No															1	99	Yes		1,526	*
25		10	25		-	2	Out		No															1	99	Yes		968	*
24		9	25		-	3	Out		No															0	100	Yes		534	*
3	-23						Out		No																100	Yes		703	*

Total:							50.8	%	2.6	%	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	13.7	%	1,356,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chevalier 2 Nightmares 6	+1.5

Sunday	None

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

65	-77						100
64		30	6		-	1	99	1
63		29	6		-	2	99	1
62		29	7		-	1	99	1
61		28	7		-	2	98	2
60		27	7		-	3	96	4
59		27	8		-	2	92	7	0
58		26	8		-	3	87	12	1
57		26	9		-	2	78	20	2	0
56		25	9		-	3	68	27	4	0	0
55		25	10		-	2	55	35	9	1	0
54		24	10		-	3	39	41	16	4	0	0
53		24	11		-	2	24	39	26	9	2	0	0
52		23	11		-	3	12	30	32	18	6	1	0	0
51		23	12		-	2	4	18	29	27	15	5	1	0	0
50		22	12		-	3	1	7	18	27	24	14	6	2	0	0
49		22	13		-	2	0	2	7	17	25	24	16	7	2	1	0	0
48		21	13		-	3	0	0	1	6	13	22	24	18	10	4	1	0	0
47		21	14		-	2	0	0	0	1	4	9	18	24	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
46		20	14		-	3		0	0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	19	12	5	2	0	0	0	0
45		20	15		-	2				0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	22	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
		19	14		-	4						0	0	1	3	9	18	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0	0
44		19	15		-	3							0	0	1	2	7	14	20	22	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
43		19	16		-	2								0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
		18	15		-	4									0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	14	6	2	0	0	0	0
42		18	16		-	3											0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	20	11	5	1	0	0	0
		19	17		-	1											0	0	2	5	12	20	24	20	11	4	1	0	0
41		18	17		-	2													0	0	1	4	11	18	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0
		17	16		-	4														0	0	1	5	11	19	23	21	12	5	1	0	0	0
40		17	17		-	3															0	0	1	3	8	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
		18	18		-	1														0	0	0	2	5	11	19	23	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
39		17	18		-	2															0	0	0	0	2	5	12	20	23	20	11	4	1	0	0	0
38		16	18		-	3																	0	0	0	1	3	9	17	24	23	15	7	2	0	0
37		16	19		-	2																			0	0	0	2	6	14	24	25	18	8	2	0
36		15	19		-	3																					0	0	1	5	13	24	28	19	7	1
35		15	20		-	2																					0	0	0	1	5	15	27	30	18	4
34		14	20		-	3																							0	0	1	6	18	32	31	12
33		14	21		-	2																								0	0	2	10	26	38	23
32		13	21		-	3																									0	0	4	17	41	38
31		13	22		-	2																										0	1	10	36	52
30		12	22		-	3																										0	0	5	29	66
29		12	23		-	2																											0	2	21	77
28		11	23		-	3																											0	1	15	84
27		11	24		-	2																												0	10	90
26		10	24		-	3																												0	5	94
25		10	25		-	2																												0	4	96
24		9	25		-	3																													3	97
23		9	26		-	2																													1	99
22		9	27		-	1																													2	98
3	-21																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3