Carolina Panthers Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.1%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Panthers vs Patriots+5.0*-0.5-6.7
+0.6*+0.0-0.8
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.8*+1.6-1.1
+0.1+0.2-0.1
Jets vs Falcons+0.8*+0.4-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Saints vs Cowboys-0.6*-0.8+0.8
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Lions vs Dolphins-0.2*-0.2+0.3
Titans vs Vikings+0.2*-1.1-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Bears vs Jaguars-0.2*+0.2+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Texans vs Cardinals+0.2*+0.9-0.3
Colts vs Packers+0.2*-0.6-0.3
Ravens vs Redskins+0.2*-0.5-0.3
+0.0-0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs-0.2*-0.9+0.2
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
49ers vs Panthers-5.7*+0.2+7.6
-0.7*-0.0+0.9
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.9*-1.3-1.2
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Ravens vs Saints+0.8*+0.5-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Falcons vs Vikings-0.6*+0.9+0.8
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Chiefs vs Packers+0.2*-0.5-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Chargers vs Giants+0.2*+1.4-0.3
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Seahawks vs Titans-0.2*+0.5+0.3
-0.0-0.1+0.0
Cardinals vs Bills-0.2*+0.2+0.3
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.2*+0.9+0.3
Eagles vs Jets-0.2*-0.6+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Panthers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100641*
2525-6-0In100001,239
24.524-6-1In10019
2424-7-0In99104,420
23.523-7-1In99180
2323-8-0In9720113,694
22.522-8-1In93502252
2222-9-0In90802036,069*
21.521-9-1In851005649
2121-10-0In7419106080,677*
20.520-10-1In652520801,342
2020-11-0100.0%48326012100157,844
19-10-2In33501712
19.519-11-1100.0363610117102,556
1919-12-099.52034172215000269,973
18-11-2In10303520520
18.518-12-198.71129235248104,159
1818-13-094.541924924155100399,572
17-12-288.5152743581226
17.517-13-188.2110231321209205,724
1717-14-071.5041616132217831000522,645
16-13-262.5331510151830840
16.516-14-154.2011017719231562007,084*
1616-15-032.600414311202115831000598,738
15-14-231.82722143291444
15.515-15-117.40211051322231572007,691
1515-16-09.20170151321221793100603,891
14-15-23.822423212619453
14.514-16-14.60400161424241772007,323
1414-17-02.4020002614222418920537,172
13-16-2Out33159211824934
13.513-17-11.41002615252717616,074*
1313-18-00.50100027172727154419,600
12-17-2Out9422172691323
12.512-18-10.100002822322784,332*
1212-19-00.10001413293519287,116
11-18-2Out4174822923
11.511-19-1Out00152241312,842
1111-20-00.000002133846171,423*
10.510-20-1Out01631621,489
1010-21-0Out003247290,181*
9.59-21-1Out11683764
99-22-0Out01118940,410*
8.58-22-1Out595255
88-23-0Out049615,685*
7.57-23-1Out29899
77-24-0Out1995,030
6.56-24-1Out39731
66-25-0Out01001,487
0-5.5Out100765*
Total:37.1%66666666666666664,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Panthers vs Patriots-1.3+0.1+1.7
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.1-0.5+0.1
Jets vs Falcons-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Saints vs Cowboys+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Ravens vs Redskins-0.0+0.2+0.0
Texans vs Cardinals-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Bears vs Jaguars+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Titans vs Vikings-0.0*+0.2+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
49ers vs Panthers+1.3+0.2-1.8
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.1*+0.2+0.2
Ravens vs Saints-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Falcons vs Vikings+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Chargers vs Giants-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chiefs vs Packers-0.0*+0.3+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
25.5-31100
2525-6-0100000
24.524-6-1955
2424-7-098210
23.523-7-19451
2323-8-0915201
22.522-8-18410502
2222-9-0761480020
21.521-9-1661910005
2121-10-04726181100600
20.520-10-1343123220800
2020-11-01731275600121100
19-10-23342817
19.519-11-1828251090116110
1919-12-021817171522017450000
18-11-2102553051555
18.518-12-1010821194501677010
1818-13-00431614108111131325100
17-12-2881215415194412
17.517-13-11010815112516155920
1717-14-0004313115212101214941000
16-13-233510101551325103
16.516-14-1010988073161316124100
1616-15-0000441003110512161511521000
15-14-272022225161475
15.515-15-10219005039172117103100
1515-16-00116001002611161816116310000
14-15-2222261791925882
14.514-16-1004000014101924201241000
1414-17-000200000013612171917127310000
13-16-266691821151263
13.513-17-10100151220252010410
1313-18-00010000149162121168310
12-17-2991717171399
12.512-18-1001411222821930
1212-19-000001411212723112
11-18-2172222309
11.511-19-10292332268
1111-20-00001413283519
10.510-20-105184036
1010-21-0002113650
9.59-21-1032770
99-22-00022078
8.58-22-11189
88-23-00793
7.57-23-1595
77-24-00298
6.56-24-1397
66-25-00100
0-5.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333