Chicago Bears Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.3%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Bears vs Jaguars+5.0*-1.2-6.7
+0.6*-0.1-0.8
Titans vs Vikings+0.8*-0.1-1.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Colts vs Packers+0.8*+0.7-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Lions vs Dolphins-0.8*-0.5+1.1
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Ravens vs Redskins+0.3*-0.7-0.3
+0.0-0.1-0.0
Giants vs Chiefs-0.3*+0.8+0.3
Jets vs Falcons+0.2*-0.2-0.3
Panthers vs Patriots-0.2*-0.0+0.3
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.2*-0.3-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Texans vs Cardinals+0.2*-0.8-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Redskins vs Bears-5.7*+1.5+7.6
-0.7*+0.2+0.9
Chiefs vs Packers+0.9*+0.0-1.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Falcons vs Vikings+0.6*+1.5-0.8
+0.0*+0.2-0.1
Rams vs Lions+0.6*+1.8-0.8
+0.0*+0.2-0.1
Cardinals vs Bills-0.2*+0.3+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Ravens vs Saints+0.2*-1.4-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Chargers vs Giants+0.2*+2.4-0.3
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.2*-0.8-0.3
Eagles vs Jets-0.2*-1.7+0.3
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans-0.2*+0.2+0.3
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.2*-2.8+0.3
-0.0*-0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bears finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
28-31In100339*
2727-4-0In98265
25.5-26.5In100274*
2525-6-0In10001,152*
24.524-6-1In10019
2424-7-0In99104,346
23.523-7-1In10094
2323-8-0In9730113,758
22.522-8-1In9640230
2222-9-0In90802035,683*
21.521-9-1In87904646
2121-10-0100.0%74191060080,690*
20.520-10-1In64263701,369
2020-11-0100.049326012100157,861*
19.519-11-199.9363511116102,624*
1919-12-099.52134162215000268,809
18-11-2In3824191921
18.518-12-199.01129225238104,064
1818-13-094.6519248241541000398,992
17-12-297.1172962917335
17.517-13-187.5110231220211020005,803
1717-14-072.205161514221782000522,665
16-13-274.481810211821539
16.516-14-153.901917719231562007,244
1616-15-033.200514311202115721000598,948
15-14-236.4271629152516755
15.515-15-117.70211141322221572007,776
1515-16-09.50170261421221683100605,219
14-15-223.3212216161919543
14.514-16-14.70400161523241782007,303*
1414-17-02.4020002615232417820537,759
13-16-2Out61025311762248
13.513-17-10.91002616252618616,035
1313-18-00.501000028172727154419,584
12-17-2Out9302230923
12.512-18-10.20002923322594,361
1212-19-00.10001413293518287,273*
11.511-19-1Out162041322,826
1111-20-00.000003143845171,742*
10.510-20-1Out01832591,613
1010-21-0Out003257289,647*
9.59-21-1Out11585722
99-22-0Out01118940,078*
8.58-22-1Out0496287
88-23-0Out049615,733*
7.57-23-1Out10098
77-24-0Out1995,227
6.56-24-1Out10022
66-25-0Out01001,342
0-5.5Out100726*
Total:37.3%66666666666666664,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Bears vs Jaguars-1.3*+0.2+1.7
Titans vs Vikings-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Colts vs Packers-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Lions vs Dolphins+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Texans vs Cardinals-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Ravens vs Redskins-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Panthers vs Patriots+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.0*+0.2+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Redskins vs Bears+1.3*-0.4-1.8
Ravens vs Saints-0.0+0.5+0.0
Chiefs vs Packers-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Falcons vs Vikings-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Rams vs Lions-0.1*-0.4+0.1
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Cardinals vs Bills+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chargers vs Giants-0.0*-0.4+0.0
Eagles vs Jets+0.0*+0.4-0.0
Seahawks vs Titans+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.0*+0.4-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
28-31100
2727-4-0982
26.526-4-1100
2626-5-01000
25.525-5-1100
2525-6-09910
24.524-6-1955
2424-7-097210
23.523-7-1955
2323-8-0916301
22.522-8-1861040
2222-9-07514800200
21.521-9-16522904
2121-10-04827181106000
20.520-10-133312413700
2020-11-01731265600121100
19.519-11-17292510100115110
1919-12-021917171522017440000
18.518-12-1011920184501678010
1818-13-005316141081111313241000
17.517-13-11010815111515165102000
1717-14-0005313105212101214941000
16.516-14-101099807316131711410
1616-15-0000441003111512161510521000
15-14-2274132275111818722
15.515-15-10229140291822179310
1515-16-000117002002611161816116310000
14-15-2219222141419979
14.514-16-1004000014101923211141000
1414-17-00020000001361217191712631000
13-16-22210172525136
13.513-17-1100251220242011410
1313-18-0001000000149162121168310
12.512-18-10014122227211020
1212-19-000001411212722112
11.511-19-10292234248
1111-20-00001413293518
10.510-20-115204134
1010-21-0002113750
9.59-21-1032770
99-22-00022078
8.58-22-10891
88-23-00892
7.57-23-1100
77-24-00298
6.56-24-1595
66-25-0199
4.5-5.5100
44-27-0199
0-3100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333