Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances 2015

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 36%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Giants vs Chiefs-5.1*+2.0+6.8
-0.6+0.2+0.8
Broncos vs Bengals-0.7*-1.9+0.9
-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Browns vs Raiders+0.7*-1.9-0.9
+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Chargers vs Steelers-0.7*+0.1+0.9
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Texans vs Cardinals-0.2*-1.2+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Bears vs Jaguars+0.2*-0.4-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Colts vs Packers-0.2*+0.8+0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Titans vs Vikings-0.2*-1.1+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Ravens vs Redskins-0.2*+0.1+0.3
Bills vs Buccaneers-0.2*+0.5+0.3
Panthers vs Patriots+0.2*-1.1-0.2
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins+0.2*-0.1-0.2
Jets vs Falcons-0.2*+0.5+0.2
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Chiefs vs Packers+5.0*-2.2-6.7
+0.6-0.3-0.8
Chargers vs Giants-0.8*+0.3+1.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Browns vs Broncos+0.7*-0.0-0.9
+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Cowboys vs Jaguars+0.3*-0.2-0.4
Seahawks vs Titans+0.3*+0.7-0.4
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers-0.2*-1.2+0.3
Eagles vs Jets+0.2*+1.1-0.3
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Ravens vs Saints-0.2*-0.4+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cardinals vs Bills+0.2*+0.7-0.2
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Steelers vs Colts-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chiefs finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
25.5-31In100669*
2525-6-0In100001,225
24.524-6-1In10022
2424-7-0In98204,377
23.523-7-1In95563
2323-8-0In9550113,523*
22.522-8-1In9270250
2222-9-0In8512002035,744*
21.521-9-1In7918120652
2121-10-0100.0%67253050080,945*
20.520-10-199.95532509001,330
2020-11-0100.040379112100157,624*
19.519-11-199.8283814116202,573
1919-12-099.31534224195100269,646*
18.518-12-198.3727267228104,122
1818-13-092.831626122016610000398,778
17-12-292.641115111933727
17.517-13-186.0182216182210315,745*
1717-14-067.403151910201810410000522,337
16-13-269.23813181315211039
16.516-14-148.301818516231883107,104
1616-15-029.8004152817211710410000599,113
15-14-225.621492623147543
15.515-15-115.40111031021231893107,665
1515-16-09.100801411192319114100605,181
14-15-27.1521014292114542
14.514-16-14.8050141121261910317,250
1414-17-02.60300014122125201030537,325
13-16-22.322142520239544
13.513-17-11.201001513252819715,935*
1313-18-00.50100016152628185419,091
12-17-2Out62124336933
12.512-18-10.300028203228104,471
1212-19-00.10000311273721287,178
11-18-2Out523324122
11.511-19-10.000142041342,765
1111-20-00.00002123748172,121*
10.510-20-1Out0630641,486
1010-21-00.000003247390,131*
9.59-21-1Out11583724
99-22-0Out00108940,291*
8.58-22-1Out793287
88-23-0Out039715,908*
7.57-23-1Out298103
77-24-0Out01995,146
6.56-24-1Out10032
66-25-0Out01001,384
5.55-25-1Out1007
55-26-0Out0100323
0-4.5Out100416*
Total:36.0%56775666666777774,311,312

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Giants vs Chiefs+1.3-0.3-1.7
Broncos vs Bengals+0.1+0.2-0.1
Browns vs Raiders-0.1*+0.3+0.1
Chargers vs Steelers+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Texans vs Cardinals+0.0+0.1-0.0
Jets vs Falcons+0.0+0.1-0.0
Bills vs Buccaneers+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Colts vs Packers+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Titans vs Vikings+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Lions vs Dolphins-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Bears vs Jaguars-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Panthers vs Patriots-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Chiefs vs Packers-1.3*+0.6+1.7
Chargers vs Giants+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Ravens vs Saints+0.0+0.2-0.0
Cardinals vs Bills-0.0-0.2+0.0
Browns vs Broncos-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Cowboys vs Jaguars-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Eagles vs Jets-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Seahawks vs Titans-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Steelers vs Colts+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Texans vs Buccaneers+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
25.5-31100
2525-6-099000
24.524-6-1100
2424-7-097120
23.523-7-19425
2323-8-0913501
22.522-8-185770
2222-9-07691200020
21.521-9-16613170120
2121-10-048192413005000
20.520-10-13223311508000
2020-11-01723325901110100
19.519-11-1821309140115120
1919-12-021320142024016350100
18.518-12-1071018224701768010
1818-13-00331317101111110142610000
17-12-2411114111173047
17.517-13-11089131425121751031
1717-14-00033121351910101511510000
16-13-2383101355851015133
16.516-14-100118108053131419125100
1616-15-000045100218612171611621000
15-14-22212991416141255
15.515-15-101290303101823179310
1515-16-00001700100261116181612631000
14-15-252101017122110105
14.514-16-10040001410192320115100
1414-17-0002000001261217191712721000
13-16-2271114142316292
13.513-17-101001511212420114100
1313-18-0001000149162122168310
12-17-2391818271563
12.512-18-10014112227221020
1212-19-0000001411212723112
11-18-2514527419
11.511-19-10003102232258
1111-20-000001413283519
10.510-20-1004204135
1010-21-000002113750
9.59-21-1052669
99-22-0022078
8.58-22-11486
88-23-000792
7.57-23-1496
77-24-00298
6.56-24-1100
66-25-00100
5.55-25-1100
55-26-00100
0-4.5100
Total:32334343323333333333333333333333